• 关键词：营养盐  人类活动净氮输入  人类活动净磷输入  非点源  富营养  鄱阳湖

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金（No.41222002）

• 高伟
• 云南大学生态学与环境学院, 昆明 650091

• 高波
• 华中农业大学植物科学技术学院, 武汉 430070

• 严长安
• 昆明市环境科学研究院, 昆明 650032

• 刘永
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 摘要：人类活动导致的氮磷营养盐富集是我国湖泊富营养化问题形成的重要驱动力.鄱阳湖是我国最大的淡水湖泊，随着流域经济社会的迅速发展，湖体营养盐水平上升，降低了鄱阳湖及长江中下游地区的水环境质量.然而，人类对鄱阳湖流域氮磷输入的影响程度尚不明确，湖体氮磷浓度与流域人为氮磷输入的关系也缺乏定量研究.因此，本研究基于人为净氮输入模型（NANI）、人为净磷输入模型（NAPI）和多元统计回归模型，评估了鄱阳湖流域1949-2013年人类活动导致的氮磷输入量，构建了人为氮磷输入与湖泊氮磷浓度的响应模型.结果表明，研究期内鄱阳湖流域的人为净氮输入和人为净磷输入分别增长6倍和15倍，化肥施用是20世纪80年代以来的主要增长因子；鄱阳湖氮磷浓度与流域人为氮磷输入显著相关，根据多元回归模型的可决系数，NANI可解释88%的湖体TN浓度变化，NAPI和湖泊平均水位可解释64%的TP浓度变化.提高氮磷的循环利用率同时维持湖泊生态水位对于降低鄱阳湖富营养化水平具有重要意义.

• Abstract：Accumulation of nitrogen and phosphorus from human activities in the water system is a key cause of lake eutrophication in China. Lake Poyang, the largest freshwater lake of China, is threatened by elevated nutrient concentrations due to rapid socioeconomic development which may deteriorate water quality in both Lake Poyang basin and the middle and lower Yangzte river basins. However, it is still unknown that to what degree human activities affect the basin's nutrient inputs. Moreover, the quantitative relationship between anthropogenic nutrient inputs and lake water quality is also unclear. In this study, net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI), net anthropogenic phosphorus input (NAPI), and multiple regression model were used to quantify human's influence on nutrient inputs of Lake Poyang basin from 1949 to 2013 and statistical models of lake nutrient concentrations and anthropogenic nutrient inputs were further established. Within the studied period, results show that NANI and NAPI increased by 6 and 15 times, and fertilizer application was the main reason since 1980s. Nutrient concentrations in the lake could be well explained by the models established. NANI accounts for 88% nitrogen concentration variability of the lake while NAPI and water quality interaction explains 64% phosphorus concentration variability. Therefore, it is of great importance to mitigate Lake Poyang's eutrophication through improving nutrient utilization and maintaining ecological water level.

• Key words：nutrients  net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI)  net anthropogenic phosphorus input(NAPI)  non-point source  eutrophication  Lake Poyang

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