研究报告
张礼兵,霍守亮,周玉良,童中华,刘丽.基于系统动力学的湖泊营养物基准参照状态研究[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(6):1254-1262
基于系统动力学的湖泊营养物基准参照状态研究
- Establishing lake reference conditions for nutrient criteria based on system dynamics
- 基金项目：国家"水体污染控制与治理"科技重大专项(No.2009ZX07106-001);安徽省自然科学基金(No.090415219);合肥工业大学科学研究发展基金(No.2010HGXJ0282)
- 作者
- 单位
- 张礼兵
- 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 合肥 230009
- 霍守亮
- 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012
- 周玉良
- 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 合肥 230009
- 童中华
- 中国科学技术大学化学与材料科学学院, 合肥 230026
- 刘丽
- 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 合肥 230009
- 摘要：湖泊营养物基准参照状态的科学合理确定是营养物基准制订的重要技术基础之一. 以巢湖为例, 基于系统动力学仿真模型, 耦合了多种数学模型对湖泊营养物的产生、分布及输移进行系统仿真, 并结合系统反演方法获得湖泊过去近50年不同水文条件下的各营养物浓度演化过程及湖泊富营养化水平. 结果表明: 经过试验校准的系统仿真模型能够较真实地反映湖泊历史富营养化变化过程, 以此确定的湖泊营养物基准参照状态的TP浓度为0.0339~0.0390 mg·L-1,TN浓度为0.4132~0.6596 mg·L-1,Chla浓度为5.875~6.799 μg·L-1,SD透明度为0.992~1.098 m, 这一结果与古湖沼学重建方法、回归分析法等较为接近.
- Abstract：Establishing lake reference nutrient conditions is an essential technique for nutrient criteria determination. In this paper, a system dynamics (SD)-based method, combined with several mathematical models, was undertaken to simulate the nutrient sources, distribution and movement in Lake Chao. The evolution process of nutrient concentrations and eutrophication levels in the past few decades under different hydrological conditions could be modeled by the system retrieval method described in this paper. Results showed that the system simulation model calibrated by experiments is capable of describing the historical changes of lake eutrophication. Accordingly, this new method identified the reference total phosphorus values of 0.0339~0.0390 mg·L-1, reference total nitrogen values of 0.4132~0.6596 mg·L-1, reference chlorophyll values of 5.875~6.799 μg·L-1, and reference Secci depth values of 0.992~1.098 m for Lake Chao, suggesting that the results generated by the SD-based method can be compared to those of paleolimnological reconstruction and regression approaches.
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