| HSPF径流模拟参数敏感性分析与模型适用性研究 |
| 摘要点击 2304 全文点击 1056 投稿时间：2012-09-21 修订日期：2012-11-21 |
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| 中文关键词 HSPF模型 径流模拟 参数敏感性分析 适用性 太湖丘陵地区 |
| 英文关键词 HSPF model runoff simulation parameter sensitivity analysis adaptability hilly region in Tai Lake |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 选择太湖丘陵地区典型小流域,在分析径流模拟关键参数敏感性的基础上,对HSPF模型进行了率定与验证,并评价了该模型在太湖丘陵地区的适用性. 采用基于扰动分析法的相对灵敏度方法,分析了影响水文过程的AGWRC、UZSN、INFILT、LZSN、DEEPFR这5个关键参数的敏感性,进而通过参数调整对模型率定与验证,模拟估算了2005~2010年的径流量. 其中率定期径流模拟的偏差百分比均控制在10%以内,分别为-6.39%、-8.76%、9.66%,模拟精度很好; 验证期偏差百分比分别为-13.31%、5.22%,模拟结果在良好范围内. 在率定期和验证期,模型的效率系数(Ens)分别达到了0.87、0.69,相对误差(RE)分别为1.63%、4.14%,精度满足模拟要求,模拟结果能反映中田河流域年径流量变化规律. 研究结果表明,HSPF模型在太湖丘陵地区模拟流域径流量具有较好的适用性,对该地区水文过程模拟具有科学指导意义,也为HSPF模型在国内不同地区的应用和推广提供借鉴. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the sensitivity analysis of key parameters, we calibrated and validated HSPF model in a typical small watershed of hilly region in Tai Lake, and then evaluated the adaptability of the model in the hilly region of Tai Lake. In this study, 5 sensitivity parameters AGWRC, UZSN, INFILT, LZSN, and DEEPFR were determined by using the relative sensitivity method which is based on perturbation analysis, and then the annual runoff from 2005 to 2010 was simulated. The results showed good agreement with percent differences of -6.39%, -8.76% and 9.66%, respectively, which were all below 10% during the calibration period, and the simulation results were in a good range with percent differences of -13.31% and 5.22% during the validation period. The Nash-Sutcliffe (Ens) coefficients reached 0.87 and 0.69, respectively, and relative errors were 1.63% and 4.14%, which met the simulation requirements and could reflect the variation of annual runoff in Zhongtian River Basin. The results show that the HSPF model in the study area has better adaptability to watershed runoff simulation which has scientific significance to the simulated hydrological processes in the region and also provides reference for application and promotion of HSPF model in different regions in our country. |
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