| 考虑心理阈值的突发事件多部门应急决策动态调整方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 樊自甫,杨州,李一雄.考虑心理阈值的突发事件多部门应急决策动态调整方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(5):23-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 樊自甫 杨州 李一雄 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.重邮电大学 经济管理学院，重庆 400065；2.重庆邮电大学 网络协同经济研究中心，重庆 400065） |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目: 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目（17YJC630189）；重庆市社科规划项目（2018YBGL060）；重庆邮电大学社会科学基金项目（2018KZD03） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对多部门协同参与应急决策并执行应急方案的情形，提出一种考虑心理阈值的多部门应急决策动态调整方法。首先，将各部门的心理参照点作为识别框架，合成各部门心理参照点的基本概率分配，得到部门协同心理参照点；然后，引入心理阈值区间量化描述决策部门的心理行为，并结合部门协同心理参照点，得到不同情景关于经济损失和人员伤亡的满意度，进而合成情景属性满意度，计算各备选方案的总体满意度，并对方案排序择优；最后，通过案例分析验证本文提出方法的有效性和适用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 部门协同 动态调整 证据理论 心理阈值 |
Dynamic adjustment method of multi department emergency decision making considering psychological threshold |
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| FAN Zifu,' target="_blank" rel="external">,YANG Zhou,' target="_blank" rel="external">,LI Yixiong,' target="_blank" rel="external">.Dynamic adjustment method of multi department emergency decision making considering psychological threshold[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(5):23-29. |
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| Authors: | FAN Zifu " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> YANG Zhou " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> LI Yixiong " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> |
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| Affiliation: | (1.School of Economics and Management, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing 400065, China；2.Network Collaborative Economic Research Center，Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Chongqing 400065,China) |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the situation of multi department collaborative participation in emergency decision making and implementation of emergency scheme, a dynamic adjustment method of multi department emergency decision making considering the psychological threshold was put forward. Firstly, the psychological reference points of each department were taken as the recognition framework, then the basic probability distribution of the psychological reference points of each department were synthesized, and the psychological reference points of departments coordination were obtained. Secondly, the psychological behavior of the decision making departments were quantitatively described through introducing into the psychological threshold interval, and combined with the psychological reference points of departments coordination, the satisfaction degree about the economic losses and personnel casualties under different scenarios were obtained, thus the satisfaction degree of scenario attributes was synthesized. The overall satisfaction degree of each alternative scheme was calculated, and the schemes were sorted to choose the best. Finally, the validity and applicability of the proposed method were verified by the case analysis. |
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| Keywords: | departments coordination dynamic adjustment evidence theory psychological threshold |
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