| 链式风险评估方法研究及工程应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 温欣岚,罗占业,樊美娜,肖汝诚,张兵,庄冬利.链式风险评估方法研究及工程应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(3):154-160. |
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| 作者姓名： | 温欣岚 罗占业 樊美娜 肖汝诚 张兵 庄冬利 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.中国路桥工程有限责任公司，北京 100011; 2.中交第二公路局工程有限公司，陕西 西安 710065; 3.同济大学 土木工程学院，上海 200092） |
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| 基金项目： | 收稿日期: 2019-01-04 |
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| 摘 要： | 为解释工程中各类风险事件间存在的关联机理，将风险事件间的关联关系提炼为链式结构，给出了工程链式风险评估的整套流程和方法。以内罗毕国家公园特大桥施工期生态、灾害、安全风险全过程风险评估为例，阐明了该方法的应用过程，并与独立风险评估方法进行了比较。研究结果表明:链式风险评估方法计算量较大，评估步骤较为繁杂，当风险事件数量较大时其可操作性较差；当对某几项风险极为关注时，对其进行小范围的链式风险分析可使评估结果更加真实全面。 工程链式风险评估方法具有可行性和适用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 链式风险 关联机理 工程风险评估 内罗毕国家公园特大桥 |
Research and engineering application of chain risk assessment method |
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| WEN Xinlan,LUO Zhanye,FAN Meina,XIAO Rucheng,ZHANG Bing,ZHUANG Dongli.Research and engineering application of chain risk assessment method[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(3):154-160. |
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| Authors: | WEN Xinlan LUO Zhanye FAN Meina XIAO Rucheng ZHANG Bing ZHUANG Dongli |
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| Affiliation: | (1. China Road and Bridge Corporation, Beijing 100011, China; 2. CCCC Second Highway Engineering Co., Ltd., Xi’an Shaanxi 710065, China; 3. College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to explain the existence of correlation mechanism between various risk events in the engineering, the correlation between the risk events was epurated into the chain structure, and the whole procedure and method of chain risk assessment on the engineering were presented. Taking the whole process risk assessment on the ecological, disaster and safety risks during the construction period of Nairobi National Park Super Major Bridge as an example, the application process of this method was clarified and compared with the independent risk assessment method. The results showed that the calculation amount of chain risk assessment method was relatively large, the assessment steps were relatively complex, and the operability was relatively poor when the amount of risk events was large. When certain several risks were extremely concerned, the chain risk analysis on them with small range could make the assessment results more real and comprehensive. The chain risk assessment method of engineering had the feasibility and applicability. |
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| Keywords: | chain risk correlation mechanism engineering risk assessment Nairobi National Park Super Major Bridge |
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