| 基于ISM二维云模型的应急管理协同度研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王景春,林佳秀,张法.基于ISM二维云模型的应急管理协同度研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(1):38-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王景春 林佳秀 张法 |
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| 作者单位： | (石家庄铁道大学 土木工程学院，河北 石家庄 050043) |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目: 河北省社会科学基金项目(HB17GL080) |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究应急管理系统的内部结构和协同效果,基于ISM二维云模型展开应急管理协同度研究。运用结构解释模型(ISM)剖析应急管理复杂系统内部的层次关系,依据影响因素递阶层次图构建应急管理协同度评价指标体系;提出1种递阶中心度权重法用于求解各指标的权重系数,用中心度与层级系数反映各指标的重要性与结构性;将二维云模型引入到应急管理协同度研究,处理各指标预防阶段和响应阶段的模糊性与随机性问题;应用上述方法对京津冀应急管理协同度进行探索性研究,结果表明:京津冀应急管理综合协同度等级为良,3地各部门之间的横向信息沟通有待加强,需提高应急预案在响应阶段的可行性,同时加大预防阶段的科技支撑能力,研究方法和结论可为以京津冀为代表的城市群的应急管理协同水平的持续提高提供参考和借鉴。
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| 关 键 词： | 应急管理 协同度 ISM 二维云 京津冀 |
Research on coordination degree of emergency management based on ISM two dimensional cloud model |
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| WANG Jingchun,LIN Jiaxiu,ZHANG Fa.Research on coordination degree of emergency management based on ISM two dimensional cloud model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(1):38-44. |
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| Authors: | WANG Jingchun LIN Jiaxiu ZHANG Fa |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Civil Engineering, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang Hebei 050043, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the internal structure and coordination effect of emergency management system, the coordination degree of emergency management was studied based on the interpretative structural modeling (ISM) two dimensional cloud model. The internal hierarchical relationship in the complex system of emergency management was analyzed by using ISM, and an evaluation index system for the coordination degree of emergency management was constructed according to the hierarchical diagram of influencing factors. A hierarchical centrality weight method was proposed to calculate the weight coefficient of each index, and the centrality and hierarchy coefficient were used to represent the importance and structure of each index. The two dimensional cloud model was introduced into the research on coordination degree of emergency management, so as to deal with the problems of fuzziness and randomness of each index in the stages of prevention and response. The above method was applied to study the coordination degree of emergency management in Beijing Tianjin Hebei. The results showed that the grade of comprehensive coordination degree of emergency management in Beijing Tianjin Hebei was good, meanwhile, the horizontal information communication among the departments of three cities should be strengthened, the feasibility of emergency plans in the response stage should be improved, and the support capability of science and technology in the prevention stage should be increased. The research method and conclusions can provide the reference for the urban agglomerations represented by Beijing Tianjin Hebei to continuously improve the coordination level of emergency management. |
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| Keywords: | emergency management coordination degree interpretative structural modeling (ISM) two dimensional cloud Beijing Tianjin Hebei |
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