| 基于贝叶斯网络的页岩气集输管道失效概率计算方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏亚荣,李长俊,吴瑕.基于贝叶斯网络的页岩气集输管道失效概率计算方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(1):121-127. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏亚荣 李长俊 吴瑕 |
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| 作者单位： | （西南石油大学 石油与天然气工程学院，四川 成都610500） |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目（51604233，51504206）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（51474184） |
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| 摘 要： | 页岩气集输管道运行压力和出砂量在生产过程中衰减显著,这导致管道失效概率不断变化,针对这一问题,采用贝叶斯网络方法,建立了页岩气集输管道失效概率动态计算模型。首先,分析页岩气气质特征、管道运行工况及失效原因,利用逻辑门的连接关系,建立了页岩气集输管道失效故障树;其次,基于贝叶斯网络与失效故障树的结构映射关系,将失效故障树转化成贝叶斯网络结构;然后,通过贝叶斯网络的参数学习,实现模型求解;最后,进行了实例应用。研究结果表明:该模型不仅可有效计算页岩气集输管道的失效概率,还能确定影响管道失效的关键风险因素,并且可通过调整节点的状态及概率分布,实现页岩气集输管道失效概率的更新。
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| 关 键 词： | 页岩气集输管道 失效概率 贝叶斯网络 |
Study on calculation method of failure probability for gathering pipeline of shale gas based on Bayesian network |
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| WEI Yarong,LI Changjun,WU Xia.Study on calculation method of failure probability for gathering pipeline of shale gas based on Bayesian network[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(1):121-127. |
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| Authors: | WEI Yarong LI Changjun WU Xia |
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| Affiliation: | (College of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China) |
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| Abstract: | To solve the problem that the failure probability of pipeline is constantly changing caused by the significant decrease of operating pressure and sand production rate during the working process of the gathering pipeline of shale gas, a dynamic calculation model for the failure probability of the gathering pipeline of shale gas was established by using the Bayesian network method. Firstly, the gas quality characteristics of shale gas as well as the operating conditions and failure reasons of pipeline were analyzed, and the failure fault tree for the gathering pipeline of shale gas was established by using the connection relationship of the logic gate. Secondly, the failure fault tree was transformed into the Bayesian network structure based on the structure mapping relationship between the Bayesian network and the failure fault tree. Then the model solving was realized through the parameters learning of Bayesian network. Finally, the example application was carried out. The results showed that the model could not only calculate the failure probability of the gathering pipeline of shale gas effectively, but also determine the key risk factors affecting the failure of pipeline. The failure probability of the gathering pipeline of shale gas could be updated through adjusting the state and probability distribution of the nodes. |
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| Keywords: | gathering pipeline of shale gas failure probability Bayesian network |
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