| 重点行业/领域碳达峰成本测算及社会经济影响评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张静,薛英岚,赵静,何捷,李冰,张鸿宇,袁闪闪,李勃,黄志辉,翁慧,邵朱强,曹东,张伟,蒋洪强.重点行业/领域碳达峰成本测算及社会经济影响评估[J].环境科学研究,2022,35(2):414-423. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张静 薛英岚 赵静 何捷 李冰 张鸿宇 袁闪闪 李勃 黄志辉 翁慧 邵朱强 曹东 张伟 蒋洪强 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.生态环境部环境规划院，国家环境保护环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室，北京 100012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(No.72140008,72140004)； |
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| 摘 要： | 实现重点行业碳减排需要国家、地方乃至企业投入巨大成本，如何核算重点排放行业和领域资金规模以及选取最为经济有效的碳减排措施，是我国碳达峰路径需要考虑的关键因素. 采用自下而上的降碳技术综合成本评估模型，以我国六大行业(电力、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼、炼油和石化、煤化工)和两大领域的59项降碳措施为对象，测算了2021—2035年投资成本并模拟了上述投资可能带来的潜在宏观经济影响. 结果表明:①2021—2035年全国重点行业/领域实现碳达峰累计投入成本为34.0×1012元，其中，2030年前碳达峰累计投入成本为20.8×1012元，年均投入2.1×1012元，约占全国年均GDP的1.5%. ②实现2030年前碳达峰预计需对电力行业、重点工业行业、交通领域和建筑领域分别投资10.7×1012、1.3×1012、5.2×1012、3.6×1012元. 铝冶炼行业单位减碳成本最低〔624元/t(以CO2计)〕，交通领域单位减碳成本最高〔47 869元/t(以CO2计)〕. ③碳达峰将通过促进新能源产业发展、重点工业行业节能、交通领域绿色升级和绿色基础设施建设等刺激经济高质量增长，2030年前碳达峰投资累计带动GDP增长约26.2×1012元，每年新增就业岗位约677×104个. 研究显示，工业是碳减排经济性最高的领域，交通领域实现碳减排需要付出较大的投资成本，碳达峰投资将有效促进产业绿色低碳转型.
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| 关 键 词： | 碳达峰 经济成本 宏观经济影响 重点行业/领域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-09-08 |
Evaluation of Cost and Economic Impact of China's Carbon Peak Pathway on Key Industries |
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| ZHANG Jing,XUE Yinglan,ZHAO Jing,HE Jie,LI Bing,ZHANG Hongyu,YUAN Shanshan,LI Bo,HUANG Zhihui,WENG Hui,SHAO Zhuqiang,CAO Dong,ZHANG Wei,JIANG Hongqiang.Evaluation of Cost and Economic Impact of China's Carbon Peak Pathway on Key Industries[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2022,35(2):414-423. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jing XUE Yinglan ZHAO Jing HE Jie LI Bing ZHANG Hongyu YUAN Shanshan LI Bo HUANG Zhihui WENG Hui SHAO Zhuqiang CAO Dong ZHANG Wei JIANG Hongqiang |
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| Abstract: | Carbon emission reduction in key industries requires enormous investment from the central government, local governments and enterprises. How to determine the capital scale of key emission industries and sectors and select the most economical and effective carbon reduction measures is crucial for China's carbon peak pathway. Aiming at 59 carbon reduction measures in six major industries (power industry, steel, cement, aluminum smelting, oil refining and petrochemical, coal chemical industry) and two major sectors (transportation, construction), we adopt the bottom-up comprehensive cost evaluation model of carbon reduction technology to estimate the investment cost and simulate its potential macroeconomic impact from 2021 to 2035. The results show that: (1) The cumulative investment cost of achieving carbon peak in key industries/sectors across the country from 2021 to 2035 is 34.0×1012 RMB, of which the capital investment in carbon peak before 2030 is 20.8×1012 RMB, and the average annual investment is 2.1×1012 RMB, accounting for about 1.5% of GDP. (2) It is expected that by 2030, China's carbon peak needs to invest 10.7×1012 RMB, 1.3×1012 RMB, 5.2×1012 RMB, 3.6×1012 RMB in the power industry, key industrial sectors, transportation sector and construction sector, respectively, with the lowest unit carbon reduction cost in the aluminum smelting industry (624 RMB/t) and the highest unit carbon reduction cost in the transportation sector (47,869 RMB/t). (3) Carbon peak will stimulate high-quality economic growth by promoting the development of new energy industries, energy conservation in key industrial sectors, green upgrades in the transportation sector, and green infrastructure construction. By 2030, the investment in carbon peak will accumulatively drive GDP growth of about 26.2×1012 RMB, and create about 677×104 new jobs per year. The study shows that industrial sector is the most economical field of carbon emission reduction, while the transportation sector requires a large investment to achieve carbon emission reduction. The carbon peak investment will effectively promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the industry. |
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