| 中国建筑领域CO2排放达峰路径研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 袁闪闪,陈潇君,杜艳春,曲世琳,胡楚梅,金玲,徐伟,严刚.中国建筑领域CO2排放达峰路径研究[J].环境科学研究,2022,35(2):394-404. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 袁闪闪 陈潇君 杜艳春 曲世琳 胡楚梅 金玲 徐伟 严刚 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国建筑科学研究院有限公司，北京 100013 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(No.72074154)；;住房和城乡建设部科学技术项目(No.2019-Z-006)~~； |
| |
| 摘 要： | 实施建筑领域CO2排放控制是推动我国2030年前实现碳排放达峰的关键举措. 2020年我国建筑领域运行阶段CO2排放量为21.7×108 t，约占全国能源活动碳排放量的20%，其中直接排放6.9×108 t，间接排放14.8×108 t. 随着城镇化发展水平和居民生活消费水平的不断提升，建筑领域CO2排放仍呈刚性增长态势. 为明确建筑领域CO2排放达峰路径，综合考虑建筑领域发展现状和用能情况，以建筑运行中供暖、炊事等活动所需一次能源(煤炭、石油和天然气)消耗直接排放以及热电联产供暖、空调、照明、电梯、电器等外购热力和电力间接排放为核算范围，在预测不同阶段建筑发展规模、建筑能源消费、用能结构的基础上，分析未来碳排放变化趋势和达峰时间，提出达峰路径和重要政策举措. 结果表明:①2010—2020年，我国建筑领域CO2排放量从13.2×108 t增至21.7×108 t，其中直接排放已于2017年达峰，间接排放仍在持续增长. ②从建筑规模和节能降碳措施等角度分情景开展建筑领域碳排放达峰路径研究，预测建筑领域CO2排放将在2029—2030年左右达峰，峰值排放量为28.1×108~29.2×108 t，达峰后有2~3年的平台期. ③低碳清洁取暖、可再生能源应用、建筑节能改造和合理控制建筑规模4项措施是建筑领域实现碳排放达峰的重要举措，4项措施的减排贡献率分别达到40.7%、27.1%、17.7%和14.5%. 研究显示，2030年前，发展建筑可再生能源、强化建筑节能、合力控制建筑规模是建筑领域降碳的核心举措，而推动低碳清洁取暖是实现我国建筑领域降碳最主要的控制途径.
|
| 关 键 词： | 建筑领域 CO2排放 达峰路径 情景分析 建筑节能 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-09-07 |
Pathway of Carbon Emission Peak of China's Building Sector |
| |
| YUAN Shanshan,CHEN Xiaojun,DU Yanchun,QU Shilin,HU Chumei,JIN Ling,XU Wei,YAN Gang.Pathway of Carbon Emission Peak of China's Building Sector[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2022,35(2):394-404. |
| |
| Authors: | YUAN Shanshan CHEN Xiaojun DU Yanchun QU Shilin HU Chumei JIN Ling XU Wei YAN Gang |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.China Academy of Building Research, Beijing 100013, China2.Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The implementation of carbon dioxide emission control in the building sector is a key measure to promote China's carbon emission peak by 2030. In 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions during the building operation phase were 2.17 billion tons, accounting for about 20% of China's total carbon dioxide emissions from energy activities, including 690 million tons of direct emissions and 1.48 billion tons of indirect emissions. With the acceleration of urbanization and increase in household consumption, indirect carbon emissions from building sector will continue to grow. In order to clarify the path of peaking carbon emissions of building sector, the current development status and energy use in the building sector are proposed in the paper. Carbon emissions accounting boundary in building sector is defined in this study, which is divided into indirect emissions and direct emissions two parts. Direct emissions are defined as carbon emissions from primary energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) consumed in heating, cooking and other activities in building operation phase. Indirect emissions are defined as carbon emissions from the total outsourcing heat and power in building operation phase such as cogeneration heating, air conditioning, lighting, elevators and electrical appliances etc. This paper first proposes three key parameters related to the carbon emission predication: construction scale, energy consumption and energy construction. Then, article gives the main conclusions, including the time to CO2 peak, peaking pathway and necessary policy measures. The results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions during the building operation phase increase from 1.32 billion to 2.17 billion tons. Direct emissions reach a peak in 2017 and indirect emissions increase year by year. (2) Considering different building area and energy consumption in building sector, four analysis scenarios are proposed. Under different scenarios, the carbon emissions from building sector will peak around 2029-2030, with the peak emissions in the range of 2.81 billion to 2.92 billion tons, followed by a 2-3 year plateau period. (3) Low carbon and clean heating, renewable energy application, building energy saving renovation and moderate control of building area are the four important measures to achieve the peak of carbon emissions in the building sector. The contributions of the four measures are 40.7%, 27.1%, 17.7% and 14.5%, respectively. The research shows that developing the application of renewable energy in building sector, strengthening building energy conservation and controlling building scale are the core measures to reduce carbon emissions in the construction field before 2030. Promoting low-carbon and clean heating is the most prominent way to reduce carbon emissions in China's construction sector. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《环境科学研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《环境科学研究》下载全文 |
|
