| 中国铝冶炼行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王丽娟,邵朱强,熊慧,李丹,杨富强,严刚.中国铝冶炼行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究[J].环境科学研究,2022,35(2):377-384. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王丽娟 邵朱强 熊慧 李丹 杨富强 严刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.生态环境部环境规划院, 北京 100012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(No.72140008);国家自然科学基金项目(No.72074154)； |
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| 摘 要： | 铝冶炼行业是高耗能、高排放行业，也是有色金属行业中CO2排放量最大的领域，在全国2030年碳达峰背景下，铝冶炼行业将面临巨大的减排压力. 统筹考虑社会经济发展、能源结构、工艺结构、技术进步、进出口影响等因素，采用回归分析和情景分析等方法，对2021—2035年我国铝冶炼行业碳排放趋势及影响因素进行分析，识别碳减排的主要驱动因素，提出推动碳达峰的关键举措，为制定碳达峰目标背景下的铝冶炼行业碳排放控制路径提供参考. 结果表明:①实现铝冶炼行业碳达峰任务艰巨，在严格落实电解铝产能总量控制以及多项措施实施的前提下，预计可实现铝冶炼行业“十四五”末期至“十五五”初期达峰，峰值在5.3×108~6.4×108 t之间，达峰后保持2年左右平台期，产能控制是削峰的关键. ②提高再生铝利用水平是决定铝冶炼行业能否快速达峰的关键，到2030年其对行业碳减排的贡献率为77.3%. ③推进清洁能源替代，鼓励电解铝产能向可再生电力富集地区转移是铝冶炼行业碳减排的重要手段，到2030年其对行业碳减排的贡献率为21.5%. ④提高短流程比例也是铝冶炼行业碳减排的重要方向，到2030年其对行业碳减排的贡献率为1.2%. 研究显示，铝冶炼行业碳减排工作重点聚焦于推进严控产能总量、调整优化产业结构、加强清洁能源替代、强化技术降碳等方面.
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| 关 键 词： | 铝冶炼行业 CO2排放 碳达峰 情景分析 控制路径 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-09-06 |
Pathway of Carbon Emissions Peak of Aluminum Industry |
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| WANG Lijuan,SHAO Zhuqiang,XIONG Hui,LI Dan,YANG Fuqiang,YAN Gang.Pathway of Carbon Emissions Peak of Aluminum Industry[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2022,35(2):377-384. |
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| Authors: | WANG Lijuan SHAO Zhuqiang XIONG Hui LI Dan YANG Fuqiang YAN Gang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China2.China Nonferrous Metal Industry Technological Development Exchange Center, Beijing 100814, China3.Beijing Antaike Information Co., Ltd., Beijing 100814, China4.China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association, Beijing 100814, China |
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| Abstract: | The aluminum industry is one of the high-energy consuming and high-emission industries, and it is also the largest CO2 emission industry in the non-ferrous metal industry. Under the background of peaking CO2 emissions in 2030, the aluminum industry faces tremendous pressure to reduce CO2 emissions. In order to explore the path to carbon peak of China′s aluminum smelting industry, and to provide technical supports to formulate the carbon emissions control roadmap of the aluminum smelting industry, this paper used regression analysis and scenario analysis to analyze the carbon emissions trends and the influencing factors of China′s aluminum industry from 2021 to 2035, taking into account the factors such as socio-economic development, the energy structure, the manufacturing process structure, technological progress, and the import and export impacts. The research will provide support for policy making on carbon emissions control to achieve the targets of carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality. The results showed that: (1) The carbon emissions from the aluminum industry will peak around 2025 by taking active measures, and the peak target is 5.3×108- 6.4×108 t. (2) It is crucial to speed up the construction of the waste aluminum resource classification and recycling system, and to promote the utilization of secondary aluminum for carbon emissions peaking in the aluminum Industry. By 2030, increasing the utilization of secondary aluminum will account for 77.3% of CO2 emissions reductions. (3) About 75% of the CO2 emissions in electrolytic aluminum industry come from indirect emissions from electricity consumption. Encouraging the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production to renewable electricity-rich areas is an important means for the aluminum industry to reduce carbon emissions. By 2030, the contribution of clean electricity will account for 21.5% of CO2 emissions reductions. (4) It is also important to reduce direct emissions by improving the anode quality and optimizing the industrial structure. Strategies to reduce carbon emissions in China′s aluminum industry are suggested, including promoting clean energy substitution, strictly controlling total production capacity, adjusting and optimizing industrial structure, and strengthening technical skills. |
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