| 基于毕达哥拉斯模糊贝叶斯网络的海底管道泄漏风险分析* |
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| 引用本文： | 余杨,高涵韬,徐立新,吴世博.基于毕达哥拉斯模糊贝叶斯网络的海底管道泄漏风险分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(11):19-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余杨 高涵韬 徐立新 吴世博 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.天津大学 水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室，天津 300072；2.天津大学 天津市港口与海洋工程重点实验室，天津 300072） |
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| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(51879189)；天津市科技计划项目（20JCQNJC01010) |
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| 摘 要： | 为分析海底管道运行中存在的泄漏风险，提出1种基于毕达哥拉斯模糊数与贝叶斯网络的风险评估模型。首先，通过毕达哥拉斯模糊数转换专家定性评价，拓展专家意见模糊范围；然后，结合主客观组合赋权法，利用毕达哥拉斯梯形爱因斯坦混合几何算子（PTFEHG）实现专家意见的聚合；最后，通过贝叶斯网络的推理与敏感性分析，计算海底管道泄漏风险的失效概率，并辨识关键风险因素。研究结果表明:该方法可以结合专家意见对海底管道泄漏风险进行定量分析，并识别导致泄漏事故的关键风险因素，对海底管道安全管理具有指导意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 海底管道 模糊贝叶斯网络 风险分析 毕达哥拉斯模糊集 组合赋权法 |
Risk analysis on leakage of submarine pipeline based on Pythagorean fuzzy Bayesian network |
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| YU Yang,GAO Hantao,XU Lixin,WU Shibo.Risk analysis on leakage of submarine pipeline based on Pythagorean fuzzy Bayesian network[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2022,18(11):19-25. |
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| Authors: | YU Yang GAO Hantao XU Lixin WU Shibo |
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| Affiliation: | (1.State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;2.Tianjin Key Laboratory of Port and Ocean Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to analyze the risk of leakage in the operation of submarine pipelines,a risk assessment model based on Pythagorean fuzzy number and Bayesian network was proposed.Firstly,the qualitative evaluation of experts was transformed through the Pythagorean fuzzy number,and the fuzzy range of experts’ opinions was expanded.Then,combined with the subjective and objective combined weighting method,the Pythagorean trapezoidal Einstein mixed geometry operator (PTFEHG) was used to achieve the aggregation of experts’ opinions.Finally,through the reasoning and sensitivity analysis of Bayesian network,the failure probability of submarine pipeline leakage risk was calculated,and the key risk factors were identified.The results showed that this method could quantitatively analyze the risk of submarine pipeline leakage combined with the experts’ opinions,and identify the key risk factors leading to the leakage accident.It has guiding significance for the safety management of submarine pipelines. |
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| Keywords: | submarine pipeline fuzzy Bayesian network risk analysis Pythagorean fuzzy sets combined weighting method |
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