| 碳中和下水泥行业低碳发展技术路径及预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗雷,郭旸旸,李寅明,张增寿,朱廷钰.碳中和下水泥行业低碳发展技术路径及预测研究[J].环境科学研究,2022,35(6):1527-1537. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗雷 郭旸旸 李寅明 张增寿 朱廷钰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院过程工程研究所，湿法冶金与清洁生产技术国家工程实验室，北京 100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(No.52170119)~~； |
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| 摘 要： | 为探究水泥行业的碳中和实现路径，从我国的国情出发，结合水泥行业生产特点，对水泥行业未来低碳发展进行了预测. 结果表明:①在碳中和背景下，水泥行业仍会存在约2×108~3×108 t的CO2排放，产能减量是主要的CO2减排手段，结合现阶段我国较低的水泥集约化程度和较短的熟料生产线服役年限，产能减量政策的推荐和实施应在合理的规划和政策下推进，低碳技术的发展仍是实现碳中和的关键. ②通过能效提升节能技术可实现CO2减排约1.19×108 t/a. ③未来在替代原燃料来源、种类及替代率得到全面提升的情况下，原燃料替代技术可基本实现行业10%的CO2减排量. ④目前，低碳水泥每年产量不足水泥总产量的5%，未来仍需通过产品技术创新，提高其生产及使用占比. ⑤CCUS (CO2捕集、利用与封存)技术是水泥行业实现碳中和的必要路径，混凝土固碳、钙循环等在水泥行业具有典型行业优势的技术可与生产工艺紧密结合，成为未来水泥行业CCUS技术的重要发力点. 研究显示:结合水泥行业CO2减排预测及技术路径分析，短期内我国水泥行业降碳主要思路为控制源头排放，包括流程智能化、余热利用、原燃料替代和产业结构调整等路径，实现碳达峰及CO2减排；中期随着生产线服役年限临近及低碳水泥制备技术的发展，支撑行业碳的大幅削减；后期通过CCUS、富氧燃烧、可再生能源利用等技术来实现水泥行业碳中和的目标.
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| 关 键 词： | 碳中和 水泥行业 CO2减排技术 技术路径 发展预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-07-18 |
Research on Low-Carbon Development Technology Path and Forecast of Cement Industry under Carbon Neutral Situation |
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| Affiliation: | 1.National Engineering Laboratory for Hydrometallurgical Cleaner Production Technology, Institute of Process Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China2.State Key Laboratory of Solid Waste Reuse for Building Materials, Beijing Building Materials Academy of Sciences Research, Beijing 100041, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to explore the path to achieve carbon neutrality in cement industry, the low-carbon development of cement industry in future is predicted based on China's conditions and the cement production characteristics. The results show that: (1) Under carbon neutral situation, the cement industry will still have about 200-300 million tons of CO2 emissions. Capacity reduction is the main carbon reduction path. Considering the relatively low degree of cement intensity and the short age of clinker production lines in China, the recommendation and implementation of capacity reduction policies should be promoted under reasonable plan and policies, and the development of low-carbon technologies is critical for cement carbon neutrality. (2) CO2 emissions can be reduced by approximately 119 million tons per year through energy efficiency improvement and energy-saving technologies. (3) Assuming that the sources, types, and substitution rates of alternative raw materials and fuels will be fully improved in the future, the raw-fuel substitution technology can basically achieve 10% of the CO2 emission reduction. (4) At present, the annual output of low-carbon cement is less than 5% of the total cement, and it is necessary to increase the proportion of its production through product innovation in the future. (5) CCUS (CO2 capture, utilization and storage) technologies are the necessary way to achieve carbon neutrality in the cement industry. Concrete carbon fixation, calcium looping and other technologies with typical industrial advantages can be tightly combined with the cement production process and become an important part of CCUS technologies in the cement industry. According to the forecast of CO2 emissions in the cement industry and the analysis of technology paths, the research shows that the main carbon reduction path for cement industry is to control CO2 source emissions in the short term, including intelligence processes, waste heat utilization, raw material and fuel substitution, and industrial structure adjustment. In the medium term, with the approaching service life of the production lines and the development of low-carbon cement preparation technologies, the significant carbon reduction can be achieved. As for the long term, CCUS, oxy-fuel combustion, renewable energy utilization and other technologies will be used to support the carbon neutrality goals of the cement industry. |
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