| 大型城市综合体火灾风险评估研究* |
| |
| 引用本文： | 肖国清,黄仁和,邹瑞,陈春燕,何理.大型城市综合体火灾风险评估研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(8):137-142. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 肖国清 黄仁和 邹瑞 陈春燕 何理 |
| |
| 作者单位： | （1.西南石油大学 化学化工学院,四川 成都 610500；2.油气消防四川省重点实验室，四川 成都 611731；3.中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 100012） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为提高大型城市综合体火灾风险评估准确性，建立“双主线”火灾风险评估模型，运用贝叶斯网络计算火灾发展主线与人员疏散主线各节点可靠性，并通过改进的火灾关联度法对“双主线”进行协调整合，确定各风险节点动态权重。结果表明:２条主线对于整体火灾风险相互独立又相互联系，“双主线”模型得到的火灾风险值更精确，有效解决传统火灾风险评估模型无法协调统一评价火灾发展与人员疏散的问题。研究结果为定量评估大型城市综合体火灾风险提供新的思路。
|
| 关 键 词： | 大型城市综合体 火灾 风险评估 双主线 贝叶斯网络 |
Research on fire risk assessment of large urban complex |
| |
| XIAO Guoqing,HUANG Renhe,ZOU Rui,CHEN Chunyan,HE Li.Research on fire risk assessment of large urban complex[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2021,17(8):137-142. |
| |
| Authors: | XIAO Guoqing HUANG Renhe ZOU Rui CHEN Chunyan HE Li |
| |
| Affiliation: | (1.College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China;2.Oil & Gas Fire Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu Sichuan 611731,China;3.China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to improve the accuracy of fire risk assessment for large-scale urban complexes,a “dual mainline” fire risk assessment model is established in this paper.The reliability of each node on the mainline of fire development and personnel evacuation were calculated by Bayesian network,and the “dual main lines” are coordinated and integrated through the improved fire correlation method to determine the dynamic weight of each risk node.The results show that the two main lines are independent and related to the overall fire risk.The fire risk value obtained by the “dual main line” model is more accurate,which effectively solves the problem that traditional fire risk assessment models cannot coordinate and uniformly evaluate fire development and personnel evacuation.The research results provide new research ideas for quantitatively assessing the fire risk of large-scale urban complexes. |
| |
| Keywords: | large urban complex fire risk assessment double mainlines Bayesian network |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》下载全文 |
