| 基于等维新息灰色马尔科夫的地铁客流量预测* |
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| 引用本文： | 路倩,王亚飞,杨玲,白鑫.基于等维新息灰色马尔科夫的地铁客流量预测*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(1):54-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 路倩 王亚飞 杨玲 白鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.首都经济贸易大学 管理工程学院，北京 100070； 2.北京城市系统工程研究中心，北京 100035） |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0804900);北京市自然科学基金项目(9192009);北京市科学技术研究院改革发展培育项目(PY2020AQ08)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为准确预测地铁客流量的发展趋势，采用等维新息灰色GM（1,1）预测模型与马尔科夫模型相结合的方式建立等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型，探讨等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型在地铁客流量预测领域的应用；运用平均相对误差、后验差比值和小误差概率3种指标对模型精度进行检验。结果表明:等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型与原始数列的拟合程度较高，预测精度等级为Ⅰ级（优），优于传统灰色GM(1,1)模型和等维新息灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度，更加符合地铁客流的实际情况。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 等维新息 马尔科夫修正 客流预测 |
Prediction of subway passenger flow based on equal dimension and new information grey-Markov model |
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| LU Qian,WANG Yafei,YANG Ling,BAI Xin.Prediction of subway passenger flow based on equal dimension and new information grey-Markov model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2021,17(1):54-60. |
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| Authors: | LU Qian WANG Yafei YANG Ling BAI Xin |
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| Affiliation: | (1.School of Management Engineering,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;2.Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering,Beijing 100035,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to accurately predict the development trend of subway passenger flow,an equal dimension and new information grey-Markov model was established by combining the equal dimension and new information grey GM(1,1)prediction model with Markov model,and the application of equal dimension and new information grey-Markov model in the field of subway passenger flow prediction was discussed.The accuracy of the model was tested by means of average relative error,posterior difference ratio and small error probability.The results showed that the equal dimension and new information grey-Markov model had higher fitting degree with the original data sequence,and the prediction accuracy level wasⅠ“optimal”,which was better than those of traditional grey GM(1,1)model and equal dimension and new information grey GM(1,1)model,so it was more in line with the actual situation of subway passenger flow. |
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| Keywords: | grey model equal dimension and new information Markov correction passenger flow prediction |
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