| 基于事故案例的Natech事件演化模式及风险分析* |
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| 引用本文： | 郄子君,唐佳宁.基于事故案例的Natech事件演化模式及风险分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(9):5-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郄子君 唐佳宁 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.大连理工大学 人文与社会科学学部，辽宁 大连 116024；2.大连理工大学 经济管理学院，辽宁 大连 116024） |
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| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（71901047）；教育部人文社科青年基金项目（19YJC630130）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项（DUT20RC(4)022） |
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| 摘 要： | 为探究非巨灾型Natech事件演化模式并降低发生风险，基于164个事故案例，归纳出6种典型演化路径，构建非巨灾型Natech事件演化模式分析框架，并基于突发事件关联网络，分析影响Natech事件风险的水平关键节点及潜在发生路径。结果表明:暴雨灾害是对全局影响力最强的节点，与人为异动的协同作用最显著；电力事故Natech链路径较长；水污染事故是较容易被自然灾害或首发事故触发的事件。
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| 关 键 词： | Natech 事故案例 演化模式 突发事件关联网络 风险防范 |
Evolution mode and risk analysis of Natech events based on accident cases |
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| QIE Zijun,TANG Jianing.Evolution mode and risk analysis of Natech events based on accident cases[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2021,17(9):5-12. |
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| Authors: | QIE Zijun TANG Jianing |
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| Affiliation: | (1.Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian Liaoning 116024,China;2.Faculty of Management and Economics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian Liaoning 116024,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to explore the evolution model of non-catastrophe Natech events and reduce its risk,the statistics on 164 relevant cases in China in recent 20 years was conducted,then six typical evolution paths were summarized from them,and an analytical framework for the evolution model of non-catastrophe Natech events was constructed.On this basis,the event correlation network was established,and the key nodes and potential occurrence paths affecting the Natech risk level were identified based on the network analysis.The results showed that the Natech generally presented the trend of three groups aggregation.The rainstorm disaster was the node with the strongest influence on the overall situation in the network,and the synergy effect with anthropogenic anomalies was the most significant.The Natech chain path where the power accidents located was longer.The water pollution accident was the most easily triggered event by the natural disaster or first accident. |
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| Keywords: | Natech accident case evolution mode emergency correlation network risk prevention |
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