| 国家运输支撑力下的陆上丝绸之路运输通道风险测算方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕敏,帅斌,张士行,左静.国家运输支撑力下的陆上丝绸之路运输通道风险测算方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(11):185-190. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕敏 帅斌 张士行 左静 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院，四川 成都 611756；2.兰州交通大学 自动化与电气工程学院，甘肃 兰州 730070） |
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| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(7117317)；西南交通大学“双一流”建设项目(JDSYLYB2018029) |
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| 摘 要： | 丝绸之路运输通道风险测算可有效分析通道风险因素，为国际运输宏观政策制定及风险管控提供理论支撑。针对25个国家的7条运输通道，结合文献分析法获取国家运输节点风险的影响因素，利用因子分析法量化综合风险；基于运输通道风险构成机制结合多维度的不均衡指数构建国家运输支撑力下的运输通道风险测度模型。结果表明:北线和西1通道风险最小，南线通道风险最大；运输通道风险测度受国家数目、国家参与程度及其影响力及国家风险状态影响；各运输通道内部与通道间均存在风险不均衡现象。
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| 关 键 词： | 丝绸之路 运输通道 风险测度 风险不均衡 |
Risk measurement method for transport corridors of Land Silk Road considering country transportation supporting ability |
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| LYU Min,SHUAI Bin,ZHANG Shihang,ZUO Jing.Risk measurement method for transport corridors of Land Silk Road considering country transportation supporting ability[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(11):185-190. |
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| Authors: | LYU Min SHUAI Bin ZHANG Shihang ZUO Jing |
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| Affiliation: | (1.School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China;2.School of Automation & Electrical Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China) |
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| Abstract: | The risk measurement on the transport corridors of the Silk Road can analyze the risk factors of corridors effectively,and provide the theoretical support for the formulation of macro policies and the risk management and control of international transportation.Aiming at 7 transport corridors of 25 countries,the factors influencing the risk of country transportation node were obtained by the literature analysis method,and the comprehensive risk was quantified by using the factor analysis method.Based on the risk formation mechanism of transport corridors,and combined with the multi dimension imbalance index,a risk measurement model for the transport corridors considering the country transportation supporting ability was constructed.The results showed that the risk of north line corridor and west 1st corridor was the smallest,while the risk of south line corridor was the largest.The risk measurement of the transport corridors was influenced by the number of countries,the participant degree and influence of each country,and the risk status of each country.There were risk imbalance both within each corridor and between the corridors. |
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| Keywords: | Silk Road transport corridor risk measurement risk imbalance |
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