| 城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵明,陈求稳.城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(9):158-164. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵明 陈求稳 |
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| 作者单位： | （中国科学院生态环境研究中心，北京100085） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对城市应急管理的特点，提出了一种城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法。在ARAMIS方法的基础上，对严重度计算进行了修订，引入了急性暴露指南（AEGL）标准对事故后果进行分区；同时，增加了与应急救援效率相关的指标进行风险目标的脆弱性评估；利用GIS技术，对严重度和脆弱性进行叠加分析，绘制出城市重大危险源区域风险地图。以液氨储罐毒气泄漏事故为例，对文中提出的方法进行了验证。实例分析表明，此方法为快速获取城市重大危险源区域风险的空间分布格局提供了新思路，对于降低城市突发环境污染事故的影响和辅助决策者制定科学的城市公共安全管理决策具有一定的现实意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 重大危险源 突发环境事故 区域风险评价 风险地图 城市公共安全 |
Study on method of regional risk assessment for urban major hazard |
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| ZHAO Ming,CHEN Qiu-wen.Study on method of regional risk assessment for urban major hazard[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014,10(9):158-164. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Ming CHEN Qiu-wen |
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| Affiliation: | (Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China) |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the special characteristics of urban emergency management, a method of regional risk assessment for urban major hazards was proposed. Based on ARAMIS methodology, Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGL) was involved to calculate the severity index and delineate the ranges of each threat zone. Moreover, the indicators related to the efficiency of emergency rescue service were identified and weighted into the vulnerability assessment of each mesh. Finally, the risk mapping was carried out by overlapping severity and vulnerability of each mesh based on GIS technology. Gas leakage accident of a liquid ammonia tank was presented subsequently as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The results showed that the proposed method is able to successfully obtain the regional risk pattern of urban major hazards. The framework proposed in this study has the potential to be a useful decision support tool for urban public safety management, as well as disaster mitigation. |
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| Keywords: | major hazard environmental accidents regional risk assessment risk mapping urban public safety |
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