| 基于模糊Bow-tie模型的油轮靠港装卸作业溢油风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔文罡,范厚明,,姚茜,,杨宇,马梦知,.基于模糊Bow-tie模型的油轮靠港装卸作业溢油风险分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(12):92-98. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔文罡 范厚明 姚茜 杨宇 马梦知 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.大连海事大学 交通运输管理学院，辽宁 大连 116026；2.大连海事大学 战略管理与系统规划研究所，辽宁 大连 116026） |
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| 摘 要： | 为了全面分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油事故风险，在风险定量分析中引入了模糊Bow-tie模型，基于事故树方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业发生溢油事故的原因，采用事件树方法分析溢油事故可能导致的后果，利用模糊集理论与专家评价相结合的方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油的模糊可能值，采用层次分析法确定作业溢油后果因素的权重值，采用矩阵乘法计算溢油后果风险值。分析结果表明:油轮靠港装卸作业过程中一旦发生溢油，发生火灾+污染、爆炸+污染的概率较高。基于以上风险分析提出了油轮靠港装卸作业风险的防控措施，可为油轮靠港装卸作业安全风险管理提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊Bow-tie模型 油轮 靠泊 装卸作业 溢油 风险分析 |
Risk analysis on oil spill in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker based on fuzzy Bow-tie model |
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| CUI Wengang,FAN Houming,' target="_blank" rel="external">,YAO Xi,' target="_blank" rel="external">,YANG Yu,MA Mengzhi,' target="_blank" rel="external">.Risk analysis on oil spill in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker based on fuzzy Bow-tie model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(12):92-98. |
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| Authors: | CUI Wengang FAN Houming " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> YAO Xi " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> YANG Yu MA Mengzhi " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> |
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| Affiliation: | (1. College of Transportation Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China;
2. Institute of Strategy Management and System Planning, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to fully analyze the risk of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker, the fuzzy Bow-tie model was introduced into the quantitative risk analysis. The method of fault tree analysis was applied to analyze the causes of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker, while the method of event tree analysis was used to analyze the possible consequences. The fuzzy possibility value of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker was obtained by combining the fuzzy set theory with expert evaluation, then the weight values of oil spill consequence factors were determined by the method of analytic hierarchy process, and the risk value of oil spill consequences were calculated by the matrix multiplication. The results showed that there is a higher probability of both fire and pollution, and both explosion and pollution once the oil spill accident occurs. Based on the risk analysis, the prevention and control measures of risk in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker were put forward, which can provide reference for the risk management in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker. |
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| Keywords: | fuzzy Bow-tie model oil tanker berthing handling operation oil spill risk analysis |
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