| SWAT模型在我国流域水环境模拟应用中的评估验证过程评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 荣易,秦成新,孙傅,杜鹏飞.SWAT模型在我国流域水环境模拟应用中的评估验证过程评价[J].环境科学研究,2020,33(11):2571-2580. |
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| 作者姓名： | 荣易 秦成新 孙傅 杜鹏飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（No.2017ZX07301006002）；国家自然科学基金项目（No.51878372） |
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| 摘 要： | 模型评估验证是模型开发和应用过程中的重要环节，是管控模型应用于管理决策风险的重要手段.近年来，以SWAT模型为代表的流域水环境模型在我国流域水环境管理中得到广泛应用，但模型评估验证过程尚缺乏规范性指导.结合SWAT模型建模过程和模型评估验证的基本步骤，梳理总结SWAT模型评估验证过程的评价方法，针对确定研究或决策目标、获取输入数据、构建模型、模型率定验证、展示模型结果等5个阶段分别设计评价指标.筛选中国知网收录的2015—2017年发表的以SWAT模型为主题的428篇学术论文作为研究对象，评价现有研究的模型评估验证过程，分析我国SWAT模型评估验证的现状以及存在的问题和不足.评价结果表明，我国现有的SWAT模型应用研究总体比较重视模型评估验证过程，能够清晰定义研究区域、建模目标和期望产出，说明输入数据来源和质量以及模型概化、参数灵敏度分析、参数识别、不确定性分析的方法和结果，模型模拟效果较好.但是，针对SWAT模型评估验证方法的研究较少，在模型参数识别方面还存在参数选取未考虑研究区域特征、参数识别结果不合理等问题.建议在SWAT模型应用研究中关注参数灵敏度分析和参数识别，结合研究区域特征建立本地化应用数据库，加强模型评估验证方法研究.当模型应用于流域水环境管理决策时，应完整地开展模型评估验证，并分析模型不确定性对决策的影响.
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| 关 键 词： | SWAT模型 模型评估验证 流域水环境模型 评价 模型参数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/6/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/8/20 0:00:00 |
Assessment of Evaluation Process of SWAT Model Application in China |
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| RONG Yi,QIN Chengxin,SUN Fu,DU Pengfei.Assessment of Evaluation Process of SWAT Model Application in China[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2020,33(11):2571-2580. |
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| Authors: | RONG Yi QIN Chengxin SUN Fu DU Pengfei |
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| Affiliation: | School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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| Abstract: | Model evaluation is critical to model development and application, and is an important process for managing decision-making risk associated with model application. In recent years, watershed models, such as the SWAT model, have been widely used for watershed management in China. However, there is still a lack of standardized guidance for model evaluation in such circumstances. Based on the process of applying the SWAT model and the procedure for model evaluation, an assessment framework for model evaluation process has been proposed, and indicators have been developed for each of the five steps of the process, i.e., defining the objectives of research or decision-making, obtaining input data, building the model, calibrating and validating the model, and presenting model results. A total of 428 articles with the theme of SWAT model published in academic journals between 2015 and 2017 were retrieved from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and the model evaluation process in all these studies was reviewed and assessed with the developed framework in order to understand the current practice of SWAT model evaluation in China as well as to identify the problems and research gaps. The results show that model evaluation has been conducted in the existing SWAT model studies in China by clearly defining the research areas, modelling objectives and expected output, elaborating the sources and quality of input data and the methods and results of model conceptualization, parameter sensitivity analysis, parameter identification and uncertainty analysis, and reporting reasonably good simulation results. Nevertheless, there are relatively few studies on SWAT model evaluation methods. Typical problems also exist in the parameter identification process, such as the inadequacy of selected parameters in characterizing the studied areas and the unrealistic parameter values resulting from calibration. The results therefore suggest that more research should be conducted on model parameter sensitivity analysis and parameter identification, the development of databases characterizing studied areas for model application, and SWAT model evaluation methods. When the model is used for decision-making in watershed management, the model evaluation should be comprehensive, and the impact of model uncertainties should be assessed. |
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| Keywords: | SWAT model model evaluation watershed model assessment model parameters |
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