| 城镇生活垃圾产量预测模型综述 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴凡,牛冬杰.城镇生活垃圾产量预测模型综述[J].环境工程,2021,39(4):128-133. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴凡 牛冬杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 同济大学 污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室, 上海 200092; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划固废资源化重点专项"生活垃圾分类回收模式与智慧环卫关键设备"（2018YFC1900701）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 城镇生活垃圾产生情况的预测，对于城镇生活垃圾的规划和后续处置有实际参考意义。将已研究的模型进行梳理，将其分为适用于大范围预测的回归分析模型和适用于小范围精准预测的时间序列模型2大类，并对每一大类下各小类模型具体比较分析。并将城镇生活垃圾产生的影响因素分为地区整体因素、居民生活因素和其他因素3类，并对每一类因素的选取情况进行分别讨论；最后对预测过程中区域规模的选择、时间间隔的确定和输入变量的选择3个主要步骤提出参考意见，并对城镇生活垃圾产量预测模型目前尚存的问题进行总结。
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| 关 键 词： | 城镇生活垃圾 预测模型 影响因素 研究进展 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-26 |
REVIEW ON PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE PRODUCTION |
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| Affiliation: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;2. Shanghai Institute of Pollution Control and Ecological Security, Shanghai 200092, China |
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| Abstract: | Prediction of generation rate of MSW is of great significance to its planning and subsequent disposal. Models in previous research were summarized into two categories:regression analysis models for large-scale prediction and time series models for small-scale but precise prediction. And each sub-category was compared in detail. The influencing factors of MSW were divided into three categories:regional overall factors, residents' living factors and other factors, and their selection was discussed separately. Finally, suggestions on three major steps, determination of land scale, lag of time and input parameters were given, and the existing problems in predictive models for municipal solid waste were also summarized. |
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