| 基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业中长期减排潜力分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李新,路路,穆献中,秦昌波.基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业中长期减排潜力分析[J].环境科学研究,2019,32(3):365-371. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李新 路路 穆献中 秦昌波 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京工业大学循环经济研究院,北京 100124;环境保护部环境规划院,北京 100012;环境保护部环境规划院,北京 100012;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;北京工业大学循环经济研究院,北京,100124;环境保护部环境规划院,北京,100012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（No.71673017） |
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| 摘 要： | 京津冀地区是我国钢铁行业集中布局的地区，也是大气污染最突出的地区.分析京津冀地区钢铁行业各类治污工具的中长期减排影响，对于选择最优减排措施、加快推动该地区大气污染治理意义重大.构建基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业模型，以2015年为基准年，以每5 a为一个时间节点，结合规模减排、结构减排、技术减排、末端治理4种减排措施，模拟计算了4种单一政策情景及4种组合政策情景下2015-2030年京津冀地区钢铁行业主要污染物（SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5、CO2）排放量及相应的减排影响.结果表明:在单一政策情景下，规模减排情景对5种污染物减排效果均十分显著.在组合政策情景下，4种减排措施叠加的综合减排情景效果最好，在该情景下京津冀地区钢铁行业到2030年SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5、CO2排放量将分别削减27.73×104、17.85×104、42.94×104、27.35×104、23.15×107 t；在规模-末端治理情景下，除CO2外其余污染物减排效果仅次于综合减排情景；规模-结构减排情景对PM10和PM2.5的减排效果相对明显；规模-技术减排情景对CO2、SO2、NOx的减排效果相对明显.研究显示，京津冀地区钢铁行业需要在大力淘汰落后过剩产能、缩减产量等源头治理措施的基础上，持续加强末端治理、提高废钢比例、提升节能减排技术水平等协同治理能力，以提高治污减排效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 京津冀地区 钢铁行业 情景分析 减排影响 LEAP |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/7/7 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/10/27 0:00:00 |
Emission Reduction Potential of Pollutants Emissions from Iron and Steel Industry over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region based on LEAP |
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| LI Xin,LU Lu,MU Xianzhong and QIN Changbo.Emission Reduction Potential of Pollutants Emissions from Iron and Steel Industry over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region based on LEAP[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2019,32(3):365-371. |
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| Authors: | LI Xin LU Lu MU Xianzhong and QIN Changbo |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Institute of Recycling Economy, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China2.Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China3.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China |
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| Abstract: | The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is concentrated with steel industry and is the most prominent area of air pollution in China. Analysis of the medium and long-term emission reduction by using various pollution control tools in the steel industry is of great significance for selecting the optimal emission reduction policy to accelerate the air pollution control in the region. This paper simulated and calculated the emission of the major pollutants SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, CO2, and their corresponding emission reduction effects under eight scenarios of both single and collaborative emission reductions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2015 to 2030. This is based on the constructed LEAP-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei iron and steel industry model, using 2015 as the base year and 5 years as a period, combined with four emission reduction measures, which are scale emission reduction, structural emission reduction, technology emission reduction and end treatment. The results showed that under a single emission reduction scenario, the scale emission reduction scenario had significant effects on the reduction of the five pollutants compared with other scenarios. Under the scenario of collaborative emissions reduction, the integrated emission reduction scenarios with the four superimposed measures worked best. Under this scenario, SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5 and CO2 pollutant emissions of the iron and steel industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region would be reduced by 27.73×104, 17.85×104, 42.94×104, 27.35×104 and 23.15×107 t in 2030. Compared with the comprehensive scenario, the reduction effect of end treatment was only second to the integrated scenario, except for the reduction of CO2 emission. The reduction-structure scenario had relatively significant reduction effect on PM10 and PM2.5, as the reduction-technology scenario did on CO2, SO2 and NOx. Therefore, it is necessary for the iron and steel industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region to make more effort in eliminating the backward and excess production capacity, as well as reducing the output at the source origin. On this basis, it is also needed to continuously strengthen end treatment, increase scrap ratios, and increase the level of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, in order to improve the potential for pollution control and emission reduction. |
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| Keywords: | Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region steel industry scenario analysis emission reduction effect LEAP |
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