Developing Peak Discharges for Future Flood Risk Studies Using IPCC's CMIP5 Climate Model Results and USGS WREG Program |
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| Authors: | Sivasankkar Selvanathan Mathini Sreetharan Krista Rand Dmitry Smirnov Janghwoan Choi Mathew Mampara |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Water Resources, Dewberry, Fairfax, Virginia;2. Department of Water Resources, Dewberry, Denver, Colorado |
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| Abstract: | Extreme climate events, floods, and drought, cause huge impact on daily lives. In order to produce society resilient to extreme events, it is necessary to assess the impact of frequent and high intensity storm events on design parameters. This article describes a methodology to develop future peak “design discharges” throughout the United States that can be used as a guidance to map future floodplains. In order to develop a lower and upper limit for anticipated peak flow discharges, two future growth scenarios — Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)‐RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were identified as the weak and strong climate scenario respectively based on the output from the global climate models. The Generalized Least Square technique in United States Geological Survey's Weighted Multiple Regression (WREG) program was used to develop regression equations that relate peak discharges to basin and climate parameters of the contributing watershed. The design discharges reflect the most recent climate model results. Number of frost days, heavy rainfall days, high temperature days, and snow depth were found to be the common extreme climate parameters influencing the regression equations. This methodology can be extended to other flood frequency events if rainfall data is available. The future discharges can be utilized in hydraulics models to estimate floodplains that can assist in resilient infrastructure planning and outline climate change adaptation strategies. |
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| Keywords: | climate variability/change design discharges representative concentration pathways weighted multiple regression |
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