| 减污降碳协同视角下沿海制造业发达地区产业结构调整路径研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕一铮,曹晨玥,田金平,陈吕军.减污降碳协同视角下沿海制造业发达地区产业结构调整路径研究[J].环境科学研究,2022,35(10):2293-2302. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕一铮 曹晨玥 田金平 陈吕军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.清华大学环境学院，北京 100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目(No.18ZDA046)；国家自然科学基金项目(No.41971267) |
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| 摘 要： | 碳达峰碳中和是我国的重大战略决策，对推进产业转型升级和绿色发展具有重要意义. 实现经济增长与资源能源消耗、污染物和碳排放的总量与强度双控制，是推进“双碳”目标的重要支撑. 我国沿海地区制造业发达，污染物和碳排放量较大，寻找减污降碳协同增效路径对区域绿色转型具有重大现实意义. 本文以浙江省宁波市为对象，对全部经济门类的产业结构开展实证研究，运用多准则决策模型和情景分析法，以能源、水资源、4种主要污染物(化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫、氮氧化物)和二氧化碳为约束条件建立了产业结构优化调整模型，将各产业增加值占比的变化程度作为决策变量，筛选出产业结构调整平稳、减排幅度大的调整方案. 制造业作为宁波市经济发展的主体，贡献了较高比例的污碳排放和能源资源消耗. 4.5%、5.5%、6.5%三种年均经济增速情景下宁波市通过产业结构调整实现减污降碳协同增效的潜力分析显示，2020—2030年预期可实现累计97%的经济增长，且能满足区域资源环境的约束限制. 面向2030年提出宁波市产业结构优化调整路径，建议严格控制高排放制造业的准入门槛，提升第一产业和采矿业的资源能源利用效率，推进电力、热力的生产与供应业等存量行业的减污降碳，鼓励发展高附加值的第三产业和循环经济产业.
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| 关 键 词： | 产业结构调整 减污降碳协同增效 多准则决策 宁波市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-05-25 |
Industrial Structure Adjustment Path in Coastal Areas with Developed Manufacturing Industries from Perspective of Synergistic Reduction of Pollutants and CO2 Emissions |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China2.Center for Ecological Civilization, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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| Abstract: | Carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality are China's grand strategic goals which are of great significance for promoting the eco-transformation and green development of the manufacturing industry. Achieving the decoupling of economic growth from resource-energy consumption and pollutants-carbon dioxide emissions will underpin the goals substantially. Driven by the manufacturing industry, China′s coastal regions are well developed, but also have serious pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, synergizing the reduction of pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions has great practical significance for regional eco-transformation. Taking Ningbo City in Zhejiang Province as a case study, this article conducts empirical research on the industrial structure adjustment of two-digital level industries by establishing a multi-criteria decision-making model under different scenarios. The model takes energy, four major pollutants (water resources, chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide), and carbon dioxide as constraints, and takes the degree of change in the proportion of the added value of each industry as the decision-making variable, and finally proposes the adjustment scheme with a relatively reasonable industrial structure variation and the largest emissions reduction. The manufacturing industries, as the main body of Ningbo′s economic development, contribute to a large part of pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions, and consume a lot of energy and water resources. This paper explores the potential of Ningbo City to synergize the pollutants and carbon dioxide reduction through industrial structure adjustment under three annual economic growth rates of 4.5%, 5.5% and 6.5%. The results show that Ningbo City can achieve a maximum cumulative economic growth of 97% from 2020 to 2030 while achieving the goal of pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions reduction. This paper puts forward suggestions for Ningbo City to facilitate industrial structure adjustment targeting the year 2030, including controlling the entry threshold for emission-intensive manufacturing industries, improving resource and energy productivity in the primary sector and mining industry, reducing pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions of electricity and heat production and supply industries further, and encouraging the development of high value-added tertiary industries and circular economy industry. |
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