| 气候变化情景下中国外来入侵植物黄顶菊潜在分布区模拟与早期预警 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 柳晓燕,赵彩云,李俊生,李飞飞,朱金方.气候变化情景下中国外来入侵植物黄顶菊潜在分布区模拟与早期预警[J].环境科学研究,2022,35(12):2768-2776. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 柳晓燕 赵彩云 李俊生 李飞飞 朱金方 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国环境科学研究院生态研究所，北京 100012 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(No.XDA19000000) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 20世纪90年代外来植物黄顶菊(Flaveria bidentis)入侵中国，威胁我国的农业生产和生态安全，现已在河北省8个地级市、天津市、河南省6个地级市、山东省5个地级市、山西省长治市广泛分布，并呈迅速扩散蔓延趋势，预测黄顶菊在中国的潜在分布区可为阻断其传播和早期预警提供参考. 本文基于黄顶菊在南美洲原产地的分布数据和环境变量构建本土生态位模型，投影至我国并预测当前和未来气候情景下黄顶菊的潜在分布格局. 结果表明:①黄顶菊潜在分布范围涵盖华北平原、东北平原、黄土高原和云贵高原. 与黄顶菊实际分布区相比，山东省中部、北京市中南部、辽宁省南部、山西省南部、陕西省中部具有较大面积的中-高潜在适生区，黄顶菊在中国尚未达到其最大潜在分布范围，仍有可能继续扩散. ②全球变暖导致黄顶菊潜在适生区明显向北扩张、向南收缩，分布中心由华北中纬度地区向东北高纬度地区迁移. ③综合比对黄顶菊实际分布状况及其在不同气候情景下潜在分布的变化趋势，结合国家和地方的管控需求，以地级及以上城市行政区为管控单元划定重点管控区、重点监测区和重点预防区，建议在黄顶菊扩散前缘区加强监测阻截力度，逐步消除黄顶菊发生区的生态影响，重点监测其潜在适生分布，抑制其向邻近地区进一步扩散蔓延. 研究显示，黄顶菊在我国仍具有较大的潜在分布空间，全球变暖加剧其向东北高纬度地区迁移，基于黄顶菊的潜在适生区变化趋势制定分级监管策略在一定程度上可提升防控效率，以防止其进一步扩散.
|
| 关 键 词： | 黄顶菊(Flaveria bidentis) 潜在适生区 早期监测预警 MaxEnt模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-04-18 |
Simulation and Early Warning of Potential Range of Flaveria bidentis in China under Climate Change Scenarios |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Institute of Ecology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China2.Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey Command Center of China Geology Survey, Beijing 100055, China |
| |
| Abstract: | As a harmful alien invasive plant that invades China, Flaveria bidentis threatens agricultural production and ecological security. Since the early 1990s, F. bidentis has been reported in 8 cities in Hebei, Tianjin, 6 cities in Henan, 5 in Shandong, and Changzhi in Shanxi. It may have the potential to spread further. A quantitative assessment of its potential spread can provide a basis for early warning. Based on F. bidentis distribution data and environmental variables in South America, niche models were constructed and used to predict its potential distributions in China under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that: (1) F. bidentis was potentially distributed in the North China Plain, the Northeast Plain, the Loess Plateau, and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Compared with the actual distribution area of F. bidentis, there are large areas of medium and high potential suitable areas in the middle of Shandong Province, the middle and south of Beijing, the south of Liaoning Province, the south of Shanxi Province, and the middle of Shaanxi Province. F. bidentis is still in the expansion phase and has not yet occupied all the suitable climatic areas in China. (2) With the increase in temperature, the potential habitat areas of F. bidentis expanded northward and narrowed southward, and the distribution center shifted from the middle latitude of North China to the high latitude of Northeast China. (3) By comparing the actual distribution area and potential distribution trends of F. bidentis under climate change scenarios, combined with national and local control needs, key control areas, key monitoring areas, and key prevention areas were delimited within prefecture level or above cities. It is recommended to enforce monitoring and interception around F. bidentis distribution edges, gradually eliminate the ecological impact of F. bidentis, monitor its potential suitable distribution, find the invaded populations as early as possible, and prevent or mitigate its expansion toward neighboring areas. There are vast potential suitable distributional areas for F. bidentis in China. Global warming has promoted the spread of the suitable areas of F. bidentis to the high latitudes in the northeast. Based on the changing trend of the potentially suitable areas of F. bidentis, a hierarchical regulatory strategy can improve control efficiency and prevent further spread. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
| 点击此处可从《环境科学研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《环境科学研究》下载全文 |
|
