| 钱塘江南源流域异常水质预测及影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张兰,叶琪瑶,李立,孙忠.钱塘江南源流域异常水质预测及影响因素分析[J].中国环境监测,2023,39(S1):27-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张兰 叶琪瑶 李立 孙忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省生态环境监测中心, 浙江 杭州 310012;武汉大学电子信息学院, 湖北 武汉 430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51879195);浙江省生态环境科研和成果推广项目(2020HT0016) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于数据驱动的水质预测模型存在局限性,对突发水质异常事件的预测效果不佳。该研究选取钱塘江南源流域马戍口监测断面为研究对象,综合采用相关性分析方法对水质异常事件的主要影响因素进行分析,明确流域内、外因及土壤条件对水质异常指标的影响程度,探究造成模型局限性的深层原因。结果表明:异常水质的影响因素及其耦合机制复杂多变,异常浊度受降雨量、径流量的直接影响更大,异常高锰酸盐指数与温度、降雨量相关关系更明显,而总磷、总氮的异常变化与相对湿度、降雨量、径流量具有相关关系。研究结果对于提高气候变化背景下的水质预报能力具有重要的参考价值,可为自然流域水污染防治提供科学参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 钱塘江南源流域 异常水质预测 影响因素 相关性分析 皮尔逊相关系数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/4/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/9/25 0:00:00 |
Prediction of Abnormal Water Quality and Analysis of Influencing Factors in the Southern Source of Qiantang River Basin |
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| ZHANG Lan,YE Qiyao,LI Li,SUN Zhong.Prediction of Abnormal Water Quality and Analysis of Influencing Factors in the Southern Source of Qiantang River Basin[J].Environmental Monitoring in China,2023,39(S1):27-35. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lan YE Qiyao LI Li SUN Zhong |
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| Affiliation: | Ecological and Environmental Monitoring Center of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310012, China;School of Electronic Information, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China |
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| Abstract: | The data-driven water quality prediction model has its limitations,and is not effective in the prediction of sudden water quality abnormal events.This paper selects the monitoring section of Mashukou in the southern source of Qiantang River basin as the research object,comprehensively uses the correlation analysis method to analyze the main influencing factors of the water quality anomalies,to clarify the impact of the internal and external causes of the basin and the soil conditions on the water quality anomaly indicators,and to explore the deep reasons for the limitations of the model.The results show that the influencing factors of abnormal water quality and its coupling mechanism are complex and changeable.The abnormal turbidity is more directly affected by rainfall and runoff.The abnormal permanganate index CODMn is more significantly correlated with temperature and rainfull,while the abnormal changes of TP and TN are related to relative humidity,rainfull and runoff.The research results have important reference significance for improving the water quality prediction ability under the background of climate change and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of water pollution in natural basins. |
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| Keywords: | southern source of Qiantang River basin prediction of abnormal water quality influencing factors correlation analysis Pearson correlation coefficient |
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