| 基于SPA-VFRM的城市要害系统综合应急能力研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘朝峰,张嘉鑫,杜金泽,郭增,王威.基于SPA-VFRM的城市要害系统综合应急能力研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(7):26-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘朝峰 张嘉鑫 杜金泽 郭增 王威 |
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| 作者单位： | (1.河北工业大学 土木与交通学院，天津 300401; 2.张家口职业技术学院 土木工程系，河北 张家口 075051;3.北京工业大学 抗震减灾研究所，北京 100124) |
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| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 河北省自然科学基金项目（E2019202470）；河北省高等学校科学技术研究青年基金项目(QN2018094)；国家社会科学基金项目(18CGL019) |
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| 摘 要： | 为反映城市要害系统综合应急能力的发展现状及过程，在分析城市要害设施系统构成与面临的主要灾害类型基础上，提出从充分性、精确性、抵御性和及时性4个维度评价应急能力的思路，建立城市要害系统综合应急能力评估指标体系，并应用层次分析法与变异系数法确定指标综合权重，结合集对分析（SPA）与可变模糊识别模型（VFRM）构建城市要害系统综合应急能力的评价模型；运用该模型实证分析某市要害系统综合应急能力发展现状。实证表明:该市要害系统综合应急能力呈现“波浪式升高”的动态发展趋势，灾害抵御能力是构成综合应急能力的主要方面；3种方法的评价结果排序基本一致，表明该模型的评估结果稳健、可靠，能够有效反映城市要害系统综合应急能力发展情况。
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| 关 键 词： | 要害系统 灾害类型 应急能力 综合权重 集对分析 可变模糊识别模型 |
Research on comprehensive emergency capability of urban high consequence system based on SPA-VFRM |
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| LIU Chaofeng,ZHANG Jiaxin,DU Jinze,GUO Zeng,WANG Wei.Research on comprehensive emergency capability of urban high consequence system based on SPA-VFRM[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(7):26-31. |
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| Authors: | LIU Chaofeng ZHANG Jiaxin DU Jinze GUO Zeng WANG Wei |
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| Affiliation: | (1. School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China; 2. Department of Civil Engineering, Zhangjiakou Vocational and Technical College, Zhangjiakou Heibei 075051, China;3. Institute of Earthquake Resistances and Disaster Reduction, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to reflect the development status and process of the comprehensive emergency capability of urban high consequence systems, the idea of evaluating the emergency capability from four dimensions of adequacy, accuracy, resilience, and timeliness was proposed based on the analysis of the system components of urban high consequence facilities and the types of main disasters they faced. An evaluation index system for the comprehensive emergency capability of urban high consequence systems was established, and the comprehensive weights of indexes were calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process and the coefficient of variation method. The evaluation model for the integrated emergency capability of urban high consequence systems was established based on the set pair analysis (SPA) and variable fuzzy recognition model (VFRM). This model was used to empirically analyze the status quo of the development of comprehensive emergency capabilities for the high consequence systems in a city. The results showed that the comprehensive emergency capability of high consequence systems in the city presented a dynamic development trend of “wave like uplift”. The disaster resilience capability was the main component of the comprehensive emergency capability. The ranking of the evaluation results by the three methods was basically the same, which indicated that the evaluation results of the model were robust and reliable, and it could effectively reflect the development status of integrated emergency capabilities of urban high consequence systems. |
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| Keywords: | high consequence system disaster type emergency capability integrated weight set pair analysis (SPA) variable fuzzy recognition model (VFRM) |
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