| 基于模糊贝叶斯网络的煤气化职业健康风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王博,赵志博,多依丽,孙铁,高涵,王志荣,郭品坤.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的煤气化职业健康风险分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(8):187-192. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王博 赵志博 多依丽 孙铁 高涵 王志荣 郭品坤 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.辽宁石油化工大学 机械工程学院，辽宁 抚顺 113001； 2.南京工业大学 安全科学与工程学院，江苏 南京 211816） |
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| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0808500) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对煤气化行业职业健康风险影响因素不确定及模糊的特点，建立了职业健康风险计算模型。该模型将模糊数学与贝叶斯网络相耦合，模拟事件概率，找出导致风险的主要因素。通过分析煤气化行业中存在的多种风险因素，应用问卷调查法和模糊集理论模拟了根节点的发生概率，得出职业健康风险概率的预测值；应用贝叶斯网络反向推理的功能计算根节点后验概率并排序，确定了薄弱环节。该模型不仅能解决概率缺失情况下的风险量化推算问题，定量进行职业健康风险评估，还可以实现关键因素的识别，并能有针对性地提出改进措施，为职业健康风险预防提供决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 煤气化 职业健康 贝叶斯网络 模糊数学 风险分析 |
Analysis on occupational health risk of coal gasification based on fuzzy Bayesian network |
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| WANG Bo,ZHAO Zhibo,DUO Yili,SUN Tie,GAO Han,WANG Zhirong,GUO Pinkun.Analysis on occupational health risk of coal gasification based on fuzzy Bayesian network[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(8):187-192. |
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| Authors: | WANG Bo ZHAO Zhibo DUO Yili SUN Tie GAO Han WANG Zhirong GUO Pinkun |
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| Affiliation: | (1.School of Mechanical Engineering,Liaoning Shihua University,Fushun Liaoning 113001,China;2.College of Safety Science and Engineering,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing Jiangsu 211816,China) |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the characteristics of uncertainty and fuzziness of the influence factors for the occupational health risk in the coal gasification industry,a calculation model of occupational health risk was established.In this model,the fuzzy mathematics was coupled with Bayesian network to simulate the probability of the events,then the main factors causing the risk were identified.Through analyzing various risk factors existing in the coal gasification industry,the questionnaire survey method and fuzzy set theory were used to simulate the occurrence probability of the root nodes,and the predicted value of occupational health risk probability was obtained. Finally,the function of reverse reasoning in Bayesian network was applied to calculate the posterior probabilities of the root nodes and sort them out,thus the weak links were determined.The model can not only solve the problem of risk quantification calculation under the condition of lacking of probability,and quantitatively conduct the occupational health risk assessment,but also realize the identification of key factors,and then propose the improvement measures in a targeted manner to provide the decision making basis for the occupational health risk prevention. |
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| Keywords: | coal gasification Occupational health Bayesian network fuzzy mathematics risk analysis |
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