| 基于元胞自动机的极端降雨下地铁疏散模拟* |
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| 引用本文： | 杜鹏飞,刘晓斐,刘贞堂,周鑫.基于元胞自动机的极端降雨下地铁疏散模拟*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(12):5-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜鹏飞 刘晓斐 刘贞堂 周鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | （中国矿业大学 安全工程学院，江苏 徐州 221116） |
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| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(52174218)；教育部科学技术委员会战略研究项目(202101)；中国矿业大学重大项目培育专项基金项目(2022ZDPY0101) |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究地铁系统在极端降雨灾害下的人员疏散过程，分析人员疏散过程影响因素和改善方法，将数值模拟方法与模糊逻辑理论相结合，在传统元胞自动机疏散模型中引入人员疏散行为选择机制，模拟地铁隧道遭受洪水侵入以及采取改善措施后的疏散情况。研究结果表明:引入人员疏散行为选择机制可以较真实地模拟极端降雨下受限空间中的人员疏散过程；采取改善方案后，人员被迫改变疏散行为的比例下降53.95%，人群疏散安全度由0.201提升至0.633；当采取与防洪能力不适应的疏散平台高度时，疏散安全度较采取合理设施时平均下降30%且差异较大；硬件设施满足安全度达到0.6为宜，按照最终安全度为1设计疏散方案，可使硬件设施设计与疏散方案制定更加合理配套。研究结果可为地铁系统防洪设计与管理提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 元胞自动机 地铁疏散 极端降雨 人员疏散模拟 公共安全 |
Simulation of subway evacuation under extreme rainfall based on cellular automata |
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| DU Pengfei,LIU Xiaofei,LIU Zhentang,ZHOU Xin.Simulation of subway evacuation under extreme rainfall based on cellular automata[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2022,18(12):5-11. |
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| Authors: | DU Pengfei LIU Xiaofei LIU Zhentang ZHOU Xin |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the personnel evacuation process of the subway system under extreme rainfall disaster,and analyze the influence factors and improvement methods of personnel evacuation process,combining with the numerical simulation method and fuzzy logic theory,the selection mechanism of personnel evacuation behavior was introduced into the traditional cellular automata evacuation model to simulate the evacuation situation of subway tunnel invaded by flood and after taking improvement measures.The results showed that the introduction of the selection mechanism of personnel evacuation behavior could more realistically simulate the personnel evacuation process in confined space under extreme rainfall.When adopting the reasonable hardware facilities,the forced suspension phenomenon of personnel evacuation behavior could be reduced by up to 53.95 %,and the safety of crowd evacuation from 0.201 to 0.633.When adopting the unreasonable hardware facilities,the evacuation safety degree decreased by 30% on average compared with that when adopting the reasonable facilities,and the difference was large.The safety degree with satisfied hardware facilities of 0.6 was appropriate,and designing the evacuation scheme according to the final safety degree of 1 could make the hardware facilities design and evacuation scheme formulation more reasonable and matching.The results can provide reference for flood control design and management of subway system. |
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| Keywords: | cellular automata subway evacuation extreme rainfall personnel evacuation simulation public safety |
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