| 基于TEM模型的民航不安全事件关联规则挖掘与分析* |
| |
| 引用本文： | 袁乐平,张文东,赵力梵,崔湘奇.基于TEM模型的民航不安全事件关联规则挖掘与分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(10):31-36. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 袁乐平 张文东 赵力梵 崔湘奇 |
| |
| 作者单位： | （中国民航大学 安全科学与工程学院，天津 300300） |
| |
| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 民航安全能力建设项目（ASSA2020/12） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了预防民航不安全事件的发生，应用机组威胁与差错管理（TEM）模型分析2014—2020年民航事故/征候的航空安全报告资料，提取事件里存在于民航运行风险中潜在的情况、威胁、机组差错等因素，通过改进的关联规则方法挖掘其中的关联关系，包括挖掘与事件严重程度有关的因素，找到TEM模型中的关键因素和影响航空器结束状态的致因因素，并进行关联网络图分析。研究结果表明:手动操纵/飞行控制差错、缺少/不足的飞行培训和安全管理、飞行员之间沟通差错与程序执行错误是造成事故/征候的显著因素；关联规则能够有效利用航空安全报告信息，通过定量的方法挖掘事故/征候的特征，找到影响民航不安全事件的强关联因素，为民航安全管理人员提供决策依据。
|
| 关 键 词： | TEM 民航不安全事件 关联规则 数据挖掘 |
Mining and analysis of association rules in civil aviation unsafe incidents based on TEM model |
| |
| YUAN Leping,ZHANG Wendong,ZHAO Lifan,CUI Xiangqi.Mining and analysis of association rules in civil aviation unsafe incidents based on TEM model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2022,18(10):31-36. |
| |
| Authors: | YUAN Leping ZHANG Wendong ZHAO Lifan CUI Xiangqi |
| |
| Affiliation: | (College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to prevent the occurrence of the civil aviation unsafe incidents,the flight crew threats and errors management (TEM) model was applied to analyze the data from aviation safety reports on civil aviation accidents/incidents from 2014 to 2020.The latent conditions,threats and flight crew errors existing in the risk of civil aviation operation were extracted from the incidents,and the association relationship among them was mined through the improved association rule method,including mining the factors related to incident severity.The key factors in TEM model and the cause factors affecting the end states of aircraft were found out,and the association network diagram analysis was conducted.The results showed that the manual handling/flight control errors,lack/inadequate flight training and safety management,communication errors between pilots and program execution errors were the significant factors causing the accidents/incidents.The association rules could effectively make use of the aviation safety report information,mine the characteristics of accidents/incidents through quantitative methods,find the strong association factors affecting the civil aviation unsafe incidents,and provide decision-making basis for the civil aviation safety management personnel. |
| |
| Keywords: | threats and errors management (TEM) civil aviation unsafe incident association rule data mining |
|
| 点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》下载全文 |
