| 基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究* |
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| 引用本文： | 杜雨霁,付明,李静,孙路,端木维可,侯龙飞.基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2023,19(4):114-120. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜雨霁 付明 李静 孙路 端木维可 侯龙飞 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.安徽建筑大学 数理学院，安徽 合肥 230009；2.清华大学 合肥公共安全研究院，安徽 合肥 230601） |
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| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目（202104h04020007） |
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| 摘 要： | 为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素，以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象，基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级，提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式，选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入，通过因子分析方法对其进行降维，得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系；利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法，根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明:外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高，管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 燃气管网 风险评估 风险因素 重要度分析 因子分析 Logistic回归 |
Research on importance analysis method for risk factors of gas pipeline network based on Logistic regression |
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| DU Yuji,FU Ming,LI Jing,SUN Lu,DUANMU Weike,HOU Longfei.Research on importance analysis method for risk factors of gas pipeline network based on Logistic regression[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2023,19(4):114-120. |
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| Authors: | DU Yuji FU Ming LI Jing SUN Lu DUANMU Weike HOU Longfei |
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| Affiliation: | (1.School of Mathematics and Physics,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei Anhui 230009,China;2.Hefei Institute for Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,Hefei Anhui 230601,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to determine the key risk factors of risk assessment on the gas pipeline network,the gas pipeline network in A province was taken as the analysis object,then the risk level of gas pipelines was determined by combining with the experience of front-line personnel,and an importance analysis method for the risk factors of gas pipeline network based on Logistic regression was proposed.Using the sample augmentation and random sampling,400 balanced samples were selected as the input for the assessment data of pipeline network.The factor analysis method was used to reduce the dimension,and three common factors were obtained and used as the first-level indexes to reversely construct the index system of the risk assessment on gas pipeline network.The ordered multicategorical Logistic regression method was used to rank the importance of risk factors according to the absolute values of regression coefficients.The results showed that the external environment had the relatively higher contribution degree to the risk of gas pipeline network,followed by the network’s own factors and maintenance inspection.The research results can provide theoretical basis and methodological reference for the risk prevention and control of urban gas. |
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| Keywords: | gas pipeline network risk assessment risk factor importance analysis factor analysis Logistic regression |
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