| 基于传染病模型的群体活动中恐慌心理蔓延研究* |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王瑞祥,张英华,秦挺鑫,王晶晶,丁时伟,高玉坤.基于传染病模型的群体活动中恐慌心理蔓延研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(7):167-171. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王瑞祥 张英华 秦挺鑫 王晶晶 丁时伟 高玉坤 |
| |
| 作者单位： | (1.北京科技大学 金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室，北京 100083；2.北京科技大学 矿山避险技术研究中心，北京 100083；3.中国标准化研究院,北京 100191；4.北京城市系统工程研究中心，北京 100035) |
| |
| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0810600） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为研究人群中恐慌心理蔓延规律,基于传染病传播模型，构建NPCN（Normal-Panic-Cool-Normal）恐慌心理蔓延模型，通过加入干预因子得到优化模型，对NPCN模型及优化模型进行数值模拟，并对模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明:恐慌人群比例随恐慌率α和冷静损失率γ增大而增大，随冷静率β增大而减小；在干预因子ω和ψ作用下，恐慌人群比例P明显下降，说明采取及时干预措施对恐慌心理蔓延抑制效果较好。
|
| 关 键 词： | 恐慌心理 群体活动规律 踩踏 NPCN模型 数值模拟 |
Research on spread of panic psychology in group activities based on infectious disease model |
| |
| WANG Ruixiang,ZHANG Yinghua,QIN Tingxin,WANG Jingjing,DING Shiwei,GAO Yukun.Research on spread of panic psychology in group activities based on infectious disease model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2021,17(7):167-171. |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Ruixiang ZHANG Yinghua QIN Tingxin WANG Jingjing DING Shiwei GAO Yukun |
| |
| Affiliation: | (1.State Key Laboratory of High-Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;2.Research Center of Mine Refuge Technology,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;3.China National Institute of Standardization,Beijing 100191,China;4.Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering,Beijing 100035,China ) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to study the spread laws of panic psychology in the crowd,a Normal-Panic-Cool-Normal (NPCN) model for the spread of panic psychology was constructed based on the spread model of infectious disease.An optimized model was obtained through adding the intervention factors,then the numerical simulation was conducted by using the NPC model and optimized model,and the simulation results were compared and analyzed.The results showed that the proportion of panic crowd increased with the increase of panic rate α and calmness loss rate γ,but decreased with the increase of calmness rate β.Under the effect of intervention factors ω and ψ,the proportion of panic crowd P decreased obviously,which presented that the timely intervention measures had better effect on inhibiting the spread of panic psychology. |
| |
| Keywords: | panic psychology law of group activities stampede NPCN model numerical simulation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》下载全文 |
|
