| 城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张鹏,秦国晋,王艺环.城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(8):181-183. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张鹏 秦国晋 王艺环 |
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| 作者单位： | (1.西南石油大学 土木工程与建筑学院，四川 成都 610500；2. 西南石油大学 机电工程学院，四川 成都 610500) |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高我国城市燃气风险管理水平，帮助风险管理者科学地分配维护资源，探讨提出了我国城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准；采用AIR指标法确定了个人风险可接受标准范围为(2.397 3×10-7,4.794 7×10-7)；运用F-N曲线法结合ALARP原则，确定了社会风险可接受标准，最大可接受风险的截距为4.794 7×10-7，可忽略风险的截距为4.794 7×10-8；利用生活质量指数推导模型，计算了达到城市燃气事故可忽略风险水平的最优安全投入成本；基于风险动态原则，分析提出了风险可接受标准的更新办法。研究结果表明:我国城市燃气行业可接受风险水平低于煤矿、大坝、化工等危险行业的可接受风险水平；虽然我国城市燃气事故死亡率逐年降低，但要达到可忽略的风险水平，每年还需大量安全资金投入。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市燃气 风险可接受标准 生活质量指数 生命损失风险 F-N曲线 |
Study on acceptable criteria for life loss risk of urban gas accidents |
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| ZHANG Peng,QIN Guojin,WANG Yihuan.Study on acceptable criteria for life loss risk of urban gas accidents[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2018,14(8):181-183. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Peng QIN Guojin WANG Yihuan |
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| Affiliation: | (1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China;2. School of Mechatronic Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the risk management level of urban gas in China, and help the risk managers to allocate the maintenance resources scientifically, the acceptable criteria for the life loss risk of urban gas accidents in China were discussed and proposed. The AIR index method was used to determine the acceptable criterion range of individual risk, which was (2.397 3×10-7, 4.794 7×10-7). The F-N curve method combining with the ALARP principle were used to determine the acceptable criterion of social risk, the intercept of the maximum acceptable risk was 4.794 7×10-7, and the intercept of negligible risk was 4.794 7×10-8. The derivation model of life quality index was used to calculate the optimal safety input cost for reaching the negligible risk level of urban gas accidents. Based on the risk dynamic principle, a renewal method of risk acceptable criteria was put forward. The results showed that the acceptable risk level of urban gas industry was lower than those of the dangerous industries such as coal, dam and chemical industry in China. Although the mortality of urban gas accidents in China decreased year by year, a large amount of safety fund input is still needed every year to reach the negligible risk level. |
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| Keywords: | urban gas risk acceptable criterion life quality index life loss risk F-N curve |
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