| 爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析* |
| |
| 引用本文： | 胡婷婷,刘刚,马东辉,王威.爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2023,19(2):152-158. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 胡婷婷 刘刚 马东辉 王威 |
| |
| 作者单位： | （1.北京工业大学 城市建设学部，北京 100124；2.北京工业大学 抗震减灾研究所，北京 100124) |
| |
| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(52278472)；北京市自然科学基金项目（8232004） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为研究危化品重大危险源基于社会风险基准的规划管控影响，采用我国标准规定的定量风险评价方法，TNT当量炸药简化方法，针对最大TNT当量炸药、事故发生总累计频率、人口密度分布控制参数等不同工况条件，对比分析国土开发强度的允许人口密度受社会风险约束影响的变化规律。研究结果表明:人口密度指数分布控制参数Nk与Nb的允许取值随最大TNT当量炸药和事故发生总累计频率降低而提高；确定工况下，允许总人口规模受最大TNT当量炸药影响很小；在最大TNT当量炸药大于100 t或事故发生总累计频率小于1×10-8次/a时可按最大事故场景进行规划控制分析。
|
| 关 键 词： | 危化品重大危险源 规划管控分析 定量风险评价 社会风险基准 人口密度 |
Analysis of the impact of social risk of hazardous chemicals on allowable planning population density under explosion overpressure scenario |
| |
| HU Tingting,LIU Gang,MA Donghui,WANG Wei.Analysis of the impact of social risk of hazardous chemicals on allowable planning population density under explosion overpressure scenario[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2023,19(2):152-158. |
| |
| Authors: | HU Tingting LIU Gang MA Donghui WANG Wei |
| |
| Affiliation: | (1.Faculty of Urban Construction,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;2.Institute of Earthquake Resistance and Disaster Reduction,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to study the planning and control impact of major hazard installations for hazardous chemicals based on the societal risk criteria,the quantitative risk assessment method specified in Chinese standards,namely the simplified method of TNT equivalent explosive was adopted,the change law of the allowable population density of land development intensity affected by societal risk constraints was compared and analyzed aiming at different conditions of the maximum amount of TNT equivalent explosives,the total cumulative frequency of accidents,the distribution control parameters of population density,etc.The results showed that the allowable values of the population density exponential distribution control parameters Nk and Nb increased with the decrease of the maximum amount of TNT equivalent explosives and the total cumulative frequency of accidents.Under the certain conditions,the allowable total population size was little affected by the maximum amount of TNT equivalent explosives.When the maximum amount of TNT equivalent explosives was larger than 100 tons or the total cumulative frequency of accidents was less than 1×10-8 times/year,the planning control analysis could be carried out according to the maximum accident scenario. |
| |
| Keywords: | major hazard installations for hazardous chemicals planning and control analysis quantitative risk assessment societal risk criteria population density |
|
| 点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》下载全文 |
