| 地震作用下滑坡水平运动距离概率预测模型? |
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| 引用本文： | 陆盟,张洁,文思成.地震作用下滑坡水平运动距离概率预测模型?[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2020(1):92-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆盟 张洁 文思成 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学土木工程学院，上海 200092;中国港湾工程有限责任公司，北京 100027 |
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| 摘 要： | 地震诱发滑坡失稳是一种常见的地质灾害。如何预测地震作用下滑坡的水平运动距离对该地质灾害的防治具有重要作用。现有经验预测模型存在不能区分有阻碍滑坡和无阻碍滑坡,依据的案例较少且只能提供滑坡水平运动距离的最优估计值而无法提供其预测误差的局限。针对上述不足,首先建立包含380个案例的地震滑坡水平运动距离案例库,基于最大似然法原理,提出可同时考虑有阻碍滑坡和无阻碍滑坡的地震滑坡运动距离经验模型标定方法。单因素回归分析表明,地震作用下滑坡水平运动距离与滑坡垂直运动距离和滑坡体积具有较高的相关性,与滑坡倾角和滑坡表面长宽比相关性较小。在此基础上,通过逐步回归的方法建立滑坡水平运动距离的多因素预测模型。案例分析表明,提出的模型具有较高的预测精度。提出的地震作用下滑坡水平运动距离预测模型可为地震滑坡危险性评价提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震滑坡 水平运动距离 最大似然法 概率预测模型 |
Probabilistic Model for Prediction of Seismic Landslide Travel Distance |
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| LU Meng,ZHANG Jie,WEN Sicheng.Probabilistic Model for Prediction of Seismic Landslide Travel Distance[J].Journal of Disaster Prevent and Mitigation Eng,2020(1):92-99. |
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| Authors: | LU Meng ZHANG Jie WEN Sicheng |
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| Affiliation: | Tongji University, College of Civil Engineering, Shanghai 200092 , China; China Harbor Engineering Co , Ltd , Beijing 100027 , China |
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| Abstract: | Seismic landslide is a common geological hazard. The prediction of seismic landslide travel distance is essential for the prevention and control of geological hazards. The current existing empirical prediction models could not distinguish between hindered and unhindered landslides and had fewer cases. Additionally, these models could only provide the optimal estimation of the horizontal motion distance of landslides without relative error. In view of the above shortcomings, this paper firstly established a database of 380 cases about seismic landslides travel distance. Applying the maximum likelihood method, a calibration method of seismic landslides travel distance empirical model considering both hindered and unhindered landslides were developed. Single factor regression analysis showed that the seismic landslide horizontal travel distance was highly correlated with the vertical sliding distance and volume of the landslide, but less correlated with the slope angle and the aspect ratio of the landslide surface. Based on the results, multi-factor prediction models of seismic landslide horizontal travel distance were established by a stepwise regression method. Cases analysis demonstrated that the proposed model has a higher prediction accuracy. The proposed prediction model of seismic landslide horizontal travel distance could provide references for seismic landslide risk assessment. |
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