| Abstract: | A three‐dimensional stochastic groundwater flow and contaminant transport model has been developed to optimize groundwater containment at an industrial site in Italy and to define likely future contaminant distribution under different confinement or remediation scenarios. The transport model was first calibrated using a deterministic approach to simulate the hydrochemical conditions prior to the optimization of groundwater extraction, then a probabilistic simulation was conducted to predict future contaminant concentrations. The stochastic approach allowed introducing an estimate of the uncertainty of the hydrogeological and chemical parameters into the model, simulating the probability density function of the contaminant concentrations after the application of the optimized barrier wells pumping rates. This allowed the calculation of the time required for the concentrations of each modeled parameter to decrease to under the regulatory limit at the compliance point, and associating the related uncertainty into the model. Quantifying the model prediction uncertainty facilitated a better understanding of the site environmental conditions, providing the site owners additional information for managing the site and allocating related economic resources. ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. |
