| 超临界非纯CO2输送管道区域人类健康风险评估的QRA概率模型及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 栗帅,张一梅,王维波,苗芳芳,赖毓娴,赵习森,张志升.超临界非纯CO2输送管道区域人类健康风险评估的QRA概率模型及应用[J].环境工程,2021,39(5):225-230. |
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| 作者姓名： | 栗帅 张一梅 王维波 苗芳芳 赖毓娴 赵习森 张志升 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北电力大学 环境科学与工程学院, 北京 102206; |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了超临界非纯CO2热力学参数特征，对非纯CO2泄漏过程中的动态物理参数进行了解析，应用流体数值模拟分析了不同情况下（风速及泄漏孔径）CO2扩散规律。将风速v、距离x、泄漏孔径类型及逻辑函数Lv概率分布特征与数值模拟相关结果应用于QRA定量风险评估模型。结合轻微伤害、不可逆伤害与致死3种危害等级对应浓度阈值4%、10%及25%，对超临界非纯CO2输送管道区域个体3种类型健康风险（HR1、HR2、HR3）进行定量化评估。结果表明:在大孔径泄漏情景下，距离泄漏点200 m范围内个体致死风险，高于可容忍健康风险水平（10-5），200~350 m内个体致死风险高于可接受健康风险水平（10-6），个体轻微伤害风险直至距离1850 m才降低至可接受健康风险水平。研究结果可应用于CCUS超临界输送管道路线和设计早期阶段，为探索减轻人群健康风险替代方案提供定量化数据参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 超临界CO2 泄漏 定量 健康风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-20 |
QRA PROBABILITY MODEL FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT IN SUPERCRITICAL NON-PURE CO2 PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION AREA AND ITS APPLICATION |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;2. Laboratory of Environment Remediation and Function Material, Suzhou Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Suzhou 215000, China;3. Research Institute of Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum(Group) Co., Ltd, Xi'an 710065, China;4. Yanchang Oilfield Co., Ltd, Yan'an 717400, China |
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| Abstract: | Characteristics of thermodynamic parameters of supercritical CO2, and analysis of dynamic physical parameters during non-pure CO2 leakage, as well as computational fluid dynamics method were conducted to study the diffusion law of CO2 under different conditions. Wind speed v, distance x, leakage aperture type, probability distribution characteristics of logical functions lv and relevant results of numerical simulation were applied to the QRA quantitative risk assessment model. Combined with mild injury, irreversible injury and death, three types of health risks (HR1, HR2 and HR3) in supercritical non-pure CO2 pipeline area were quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that under large aperture leakage scenario, the individual mortality risk within the distance of 200 m from the leakage point was higher than the tolerable level (10-5); and the individual mortality health risk within 200~350 m was higher than the acceptable level (10-6), and the individual slight health risk couldn't be reduced to the acceptable level until a distance of 1850 m from the leakage point. The research results could be applied to the route and early design stage of CCUS supercritical pipeline, and provided quantitative data support for exploring alternatives to reduce population health risk. |
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