| 污泥干化芦苇床渗滤液中CODCr和TP浓度预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔玉波,孙红杰,张万筠,贺张伟.污泥干化芦苇床渗滤液中CODCr和TP浓度预测模型[J].环境科学研究,2016,29(8):1224-1229. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔玉波 孙红杰 张万筠 贺张伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.大连民族大学环境与资源学院, 辽宁 大连 116600 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(51278088)；辽宁省科学事业公益研究基金项目(2014004006)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项(DC201502070203) |
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| 摘 要： | 为便于水质管理,在大连开发区污水处理厂设立了1个传统污泥干化床和2个污泥干化芦苇床,根据系统出水ρ(CODCr)和ρ(TP)检测数据的平稳系列特点,采用ARIMA时间序列分析模型对出水ρ(CODCr)和ρ(TP)进行模拟和预测. 结果表明:ARIMA(1,0,0)模型可较好地模拟和预测出水ρ(CODCr)的变化,R2达0.577以上,预测相对误差在-10%~19%之间,实测值和预测值之比处于0.8~1.2之间；ARIMA(6,0,0)模型能较好地模拟和预测污泥处理湿地渗滤液出水ρ(TP)的变化,R2在0.487以上,预测相对误差在-4%~16%之间,实测值和预测值之比处于0.8~1.2之间. 研究显示,所构建的ARIMA模型可用于污泥处理湿地系统运行过程中渗滤液出水ρ(CODCr)和ρ(TP)的预测.
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 CODCr 污泥处理湿地 TP |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/12/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/3/19 0:00:00 |
Percolate CODCr and TP Prediction Models in Sludge Treatment Wetland |
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| CUI Yubo,SUN Hongjie,ZHANG Wanjun and HE Zhangwei.Percolate CODCr and TP Prediction Models in Sludge Treatment Wetland[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2016,29(8):1224-1229. |
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| Authors: | CUI Yubo SUN Hongjie ZHANG Wanjun and HE Zhangwei |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Environment and Resources, Dalian Nationalities University, Dalian 116600, China2.School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China |
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| Abstract: | Sludge treatment wetland combined with a conventional sludge drying bed and constructed wetland is a sludge treatment and stabilization technique which makes full use of plants and microorganisms for sludge dewatering and stabilization. Leachate compositions are changed during the process of sludge dewatering by gravity and infiltration in the wetland, which has an effect on the effluent quality. For the purpose of water quality management, according to the characteristics of stationary series for leachate effluent CODCr concentration and the total phosphorus concentration data in sludge treatment wetland system, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to simulate and predict leachate effluent CODCr and total phosphorus concentrations. The results showed that ARIMA (1,0,0) model could be used to simulate and predict the variation of leachate effluent CODCr concentration. The correlation coefficient R2 was greater than 0.577. The relative errors of prediction values were in the range of -10% to 19%, and the ratios of measured values and predicted values were in the range of 0.8 to 1.2. ARIMA (6,0,0) model could simulate and predict leachate effluent total phosphorus concentration variation. The correlation coefficient R2 was greater than 0.487. The relative errors of prediction values ranged from -4% to 16%, and the ratios of measured values and predicted values ranged from 0.8 to 1.2. The two models had relatively high prediction accuracy and could be used for prediction of leachate effluent CODCr and total phosphorus concentrations in the sludge treatment wetland system. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA Model COD sludge treatment wetland total phosphorus |
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