| 水文变异条件下潦河生态流量计算研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王强,夏瑞,邹磊,陈焰,张远,刘成建,陈明昊.水文变异条件下潦河生态流量计算研究[J].环境科学研究,2021,34(3):607-617. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王强 夏瑞 邹磊 陈焰 张远 刘成建 陈明昊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国环境科学研究院水生态保护修复研究室, 北京 100012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（No.2019YFC0408900）；长江生态环境保护修复联合研究（一期）（No.2019-LHYJ-01-0103）；中央公益科研院所基本科研业务专项（No.2019YSKY-026） |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变化和高强度人类活动改变了流域的自然水文循环过程，导致水文序列出现变异，严重影响了流域水文生态系统的稳定性.目前，基于水文变异条件下的河道内生态流量计算已成为当前变化环境下生态水文学研究的热点问题之一.以江西鄱阳湖西北部的潦河为例，采用水文时间序列变异检验方法分析径流变异性及成因，应用水文模型对水文变异后的径流进行还原，以Kolmogorov-Smirnov（K-S）、Anderson Darling（A-D）和概率点据相关系数（PPCC）3种检验法确定月径流的最优概率分布函数，进而提出水文变异条件下最适宜的潦河生态流量计算方法.结果表明:①潦河万家埠站径流在1972年发生水文变异，突变点后流域年径流增加了12%，降水量的增加和蒸发量的减少是其主要驱动要素.②采用分布式时变增益模型（DTVGM）对径流进行还原，率定期和验证期的相关系数和Nash-Sutchliffe效率系数均大于0.78，径流模拟值和实测值拟合程度较高，表明基于DTVGM进行径流还原是可行的.③基于还原后的径流，对5种概率分布函数进行拟合优度综合检验，确定逐月最优分布函数，并估算月河道生态流量.与Tennant法、最枯月平均流量法、7Q10法等方法比较，基于最优分布函数的生态流量结果更具确定性与合理性.在气候变化和人类活动引起径流变异的背景下，考虑水文变异的河道内生态需水计算方法能够更科学地体现水文变异对生态需水过程的影响，研究结果可为潦河流域水生态保护和水资源管理提供数据支撑，也可为变化环境下水资源规划和配置提供科学依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 水文变异 径流还原 生态流量 分布式时变增益模型(DTVGM) 潦河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/1/4 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/7/29 0:00:00 |
Calculation of Ecological Flow in Liaohe River under Hydrological Alteration Conditions |
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| WANG Qiang,XIA Rui,ZOU Lei,CHEN Yan,ZHANG Yuan,LIU Chengjian,CHEN Minghao.Calculation of Ecological Flow in Liaohe River under Hydrological Alteration Conditions[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2021,34(3):607-617. |
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| Authors: | WANG Qiang XIA Rui ZOU Lei CHEN Yan ZHANG Yuan LIU Chengjian CHEN Minghao |
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| Affiliation: | Laboratory of Aquatic Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;State Key Lab of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Laboratory of Aquatic Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi''an 710127, China; Laboratory of Aquatic Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;The Three Gorges Institute of Ecological Environment, Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing 400714, China |
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| Abstract: | Climate change and high-intensity human activities have altered the natural hydrological cycle of the basin, resulting in alteration in the hydrological sequence and severe impacts on the eco-hydrological system of the basin. The calculation of the ecological instream flow based on hydrological alteration conditions has become one of the hot topics in eco-hydrological research in the changing environment. The Liaohe River at the northwest of Poyang Lake in Jiangxi Province was taken as an example in this study. Based on the current situation of hydrological alterations in the changing environment, a variety of hydrological time series mutation test methods were used to detect the change-points, and the potential causes of hydrological alterations in the Liaohe River were also discussed. Then, runoff restoration was carried out by using hydrological models. On the basis of restored runoff, three kinds of goodness-of-fit methods, including Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S), Anderson Darling (A-D) and probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) methods, were used to determine the optimal probability distribution function of monthly runoff, which was used to calculate ecological instream flow under the hydrological alteration conditions. The results show that: (1) The hydrological alteration of the Wanjiabu Station in the Liaohe River occurred in 1972, and the annual runoff in the basin increased by 12% after the change-point. The increase in precipitation and the decrease in evapotranspiration were the main driving factors of the hydrological alteration. (2) The runoff was restored through the Distributed Time-Variation Gain Model (DTVGM). The simulated runoff values had a high fitting degree of fit with the measured values during the calibration and validation periods, and the correlation coefficient (r) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were larger than 0.78 during both periods, which indicates that runoff reduction based on DTVGM is feasible. (3) After the runoff restoration, the three goodness-of-fit methods were used to select the optimal distribution function from five widely-used probability distribution functions for each month, and the monthly river ecological instream flow was calculated based on the selected optimal distribution function. Compared with the Tennant method, the minimum monthly flow method and the 7Q10 method, the ecological instream flow based on the optimal distribution function was more certain and reasonable. The analysis shows that the calculation method of ecological instream flow considering hydrological alteration conditions can better reflect the influence of hydrological alteration on the runoff process, and this study provides an important basis for the adaptive management of water resources in changing environment. Under the background of hydrological alteration caused by climate change and human activities, the calculation of the ecological instream flow considering the hydrological alteration conditions can better reflect the impact of hydrological alteration on the ecological flow process. The research results can provide data support for water ecological protection and water resource management in the Liaohe River Basin, but can also provide scientific basis for water resource planning and allocation in a changing environment. |
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| Keywords: | hydrological alteration runoff restoration ecological flow Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (DTVGM) Liaohe River Basin |
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