| 北京市燃气工业锅炉CO2排放因子及不确定性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈操操,邱大庆,于凤菊,孙粉,胡永锋,王立波,孙大利.北京市燃气工业锅炉CO2排放因子及不确定性分析[J].环境科学研究,2020,33(8):1776-1782. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈操操 邱大庆 于凤菊 孙粉 胡永锋 王立波 孙大利 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京市应对气候变化研究中心, 北京 100161 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（No.41001380）；北京市青年拔尖人才资助项目（No.2014000021223ZK42）；国际清洁能源拔尖创新人才培养项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 降低碳排放评估的不确定性对于减排政策选择和成本效益分析十分重要，基于北京市227个天然气锅炉样本检测数据，分析影响CO2排放因子的关键参数特征，评估北京市天然气锅炉本地化CO2排放因子，采用蒙特卡洛模型对排放因子的不确定性进行分析，并将其与IPCC、国家清单、城市清单等同类排放因子进行了比较.结果表明:北京市天然气锅炉CO2排放因子为2.052 kg/m3，90%概率分布范围为1.982~2.086 kg/m3；基于热值的CO2排放因子推荐值为55.829 kg/GJ，90%概率分布范围为55.788~55.908 kg/GJ，排放因子的不确定范围为-3.59%~1.57%.北京市天然气锅炉CO2排放因子稍低于IPCC2006国家温室气体清单指南推荐缺省值（0.5%）.天然气低位热值对排放因子的影响最大，其方差贡献率达94%，而单位热值含碳量和氧化率二者的方差贡献率仅占6%.通过北京市本地实测数据和蒙特卡洛模型模拟，给出了天然气锅炉排放因子及概率分布的范围，提高了评估精度，有助于改进北京市温室气体排放清单活动水平的数据收集工作，指导并降低天然气工业锅炉CO2排放因子不确定性.
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| 关 键 词： | 排放因子 CO2 不确定性 本地化参数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/10/4 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/12/16 0:00:00 |
Carbon Dioxide Emission Factors of Nature Gas Boilers and Its Uncertainty in Beijing |
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| CHEN Caocao,QIU Daqing,YU Fengju,SUN Fen,HU Yongfeng,WANG Libo,SUN Dali.Carbon Dioxide Emission Factors of Nature Gas Boilers and Its Uncertainty in Beijing[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2020,33(8):1776-1782. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Caocao QIU Daqing YU Fengju SUN Fen HU Yongfeng WANG Libo SUN Dali |
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| Affiliation: | Beijing Climate Change Research Centre, Beijing 100161, China |
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| Abstract: | Reducing the uncertainty of carbon emissions is very important for choosing emission reduction policies and cost-benefit analysis. Based on the test data of 227 natural gas boilers in Beijing, we evaluated the characteristics of major parameters affecting the carbon dioxide emission factors and local emission factors. The Monte Carlo model was used to analyse the uncertainty of emission factors. The findings were discussed and compared with the classical IPCC, nations, and cities accounts emission factors. The results showed that the carbon dioxide emission factor of natural gas boilers in Beijing was 2.052 kg/m3, and the probability distribution for 90% confidence interval ranged from 1.982 to 2.086 kg/m3. The caloric-based value of carbon dioxide emission factors was 55.829 kg/GJ, and the probability distribution for 90% confidence interval was between 55.788 and 55.908 kg/GJ. The uncertainty of the emission factors in our study ranged from -3.59% to 1.57%. The carbon dioxide emission factor of Beijing natural gas boilers was slightly lower than the default value of IPCC2006 by 0.5%. Among all the influence factors, the low calorific value of natural gas had the greatest impact on emission factor, accounting for 94%. Carbon content per unit calorific value and fuel oxidation rate accounted for only 6%. This paper evaluated the carbon dioxide emissions factor of nature natural gas boilers in Beijing and described the probability distribution based on the measured data and Monte Carlo simulations. It improved evaluation accuracy, helped to guide activity data collection, and further reduced the uncertainty of carbon dioxide emission factors of natural gas boilers in Beijing. |
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| Keywords: | emission factor carbon dioxide uncertainty localization parameters |
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