| 中国能源消费、经济增长与碳排放之间的动态关系 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵明轩,吕连宏,张保留,罗宏.中国能源消费、经济增长与碳排放之间的动态关系[J].环境科学研究,2021,34(6):1509-1522. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵明轩 吕连宏 张保留 罗宏 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国环境科学研究院环境管理研究中心, 北京 100012 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项No.2019YSKY001 |
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| 摘 要： | 在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击下，如何实现区域经济增长、能源消费和CO2排放的动态协调发展，是中国持续推进生态文明建设、实现绿色可持续发展的关键问题.选取2000—2017年我国各省份能源消费、经济增长、CO2排放量和固定资产投资指标（不包含西藏自治区和港澳台地区数据），按东部、中部、西部和东北部四大经济区域，建立面板向量自回归模型（PVAR），并利用系统广义矩估计法对模型系数进行估计，通过格兰杰因果关系检验，脉冲响应分析和方差分解得到能源消费、经济增长和CO2排放三者之间的动态关系.结果表明:①能源消费与经济增长在东部、西部均呈双向因果关系，在中部、东北部均呈单向因果关系；除东部外，CO2排放与经济增长均呈双向因果关系.②能源消费与经济增长在东部、中部、西部和东北部中均呈双向正向脉冲响应，经济增长对CO2排放均产生正向冲击；除东部地区外，CO2排放对经济增长均产生正向冲击.③能源消费与经济增长互为重要影响因素；除东北部地区外，经济增长均为CO2排放的重要影响因素.④固定资产投资能有效降低中部和东北部CO2排放.最后根据模型分析结果，分别从技术研发、政府投资、政策引导等方面提出以下建议:加大对可再生能源的基础设施投资，积极运用PPP等模式，鼓励社会资本参与；加强区域之间的交流合作，实现四大经济区域之间资本和先进技术的深入融合.
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| 关 键 词： | 能源消费 经济增长 CO2排放 PVAR模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-09-04 |
Dynamic Relationship Among Energy Consumption,Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in China |
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| Affiliation: | Research Center for Environmental Managment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China |
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| Abstract: | China's economy was temporarily suspended during the COVID-19. Since then, it has become the key issue about how to achieve dynamic and coordinated development of regional economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions, which is vital for China to continue to promote the construction of ecological civilization and achieve green and sustainable development. With selecting variables of energy consumption, economic growth, CO2 emissions and fixed asset investment from 2000 to 2017 in each province (excluding the data of Tibet Autonomous Region, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), and dividing the full samples into four economic regions: eastern, central, western and northeastern, the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) is estimated and the System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM) is used to estimate the coefficients, while the method of Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition are applied to reveal the dynamic relationship among energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions. The results show: (1) Bidirectional Granger causality has been observed between energy consumption and economic growth in the eastern and western regions. However, the central and northeastern regions have directional Granger causality. Bidirectional Granger causality has been observed between economic growth and CO2 emissions except eastern region. (2) It shows a bidirectional positive impulse response between energy consumption and economic growth in all regions, and economic growth has a significant positive impact on CO2 emissions. Except for the eastern region, CO2 emissions have a positive impact on economic growth. (3) Energy consumption and economic growth are important factors to each other. Except for the northeastern region, economic growth has an important influence on CO2 emissions. (4) Fixed asset investment can effectively reduce CO2 emissions in the central and northeastern regions. Finally, suggestions are made from the aspects of technology research and development, government investment, and policy guidance, which include: increasing investment in renewable energy infrastructure, actively using PPP and other methods to encourage social capital participation; meanwhile, strengthening regional exchanges and cooperation to achieve in-depth integration of capital and advanced technology in four major economic regions. |
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