| PM2.5和臭氧对前体物减排和气象变化的响应及其政策启示 |
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| 引用本文： | 董赵鑫,丁点,姜越琪,郑昊天,邢佳,王书肖.PM2.5和臭氧对前体物减排和气象变化的响应及其政策启示[J].环境科学研究,2023,36(2):223-236. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董赵鑫 丁点 姜越琪 郑昊天 邢佳 王书肖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.清华大学环境学院，环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室，北京 100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 大气重污染成因与治理攻关项目(No.DQGG202101)；北京市科技计划项目(No.Z211100004321006)；清华-丰田综合研究中心(No.TT-01) |
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| 摘 要： | 《大气污染防治行动计划》实施以来，我国重点区域PM2.5浓度快速下降，但臭氧(O3)浓度逐步上升，大气污染控制形势已由单一的PM2.5控制转变为PM2.5和O3的协同控制. 了解PM2.5和O3对前体物排放变化和气象条件变化的响应，对制定PM2.5和O3协同控制策略具有重要意义. 本文通过使用FNL全球再分析资料和自下而上的排放清单ABaCAS-EI，结合三维空气质量模式和响应曲面模型，评估前体物变化和气象条件变化后PM2.5和O3浓度的响应，并依据解析的响应关系提出了前体物减排、联防联控区域划分和目标设定等方面的政策建议. 结果表明:①VOCs减排对降低各省份PM2.5和O3浓度均有利，NOx的减排量不足会导致京津冀、长三角地区的O3浓度和京津冀地区的PM2.5浓度增加，为避免PM2.5和O3年评价值反弹需要的VOCs与NOx减排比分别为15%~25%(PM2.5)和5%~90%(O3). ②O3污染防治需要更大范围的联防联控，对于京津冀地区，需要考虑引入河南省和山东省的联合控制，对于长三角和珠三角地区，还需要联合江西省、福建省进行控制. ③气象条件对PM2.5和O3背景值的影响较大，使用3年或5年滑动平均值可以有效降低气象条件年际变化对PM2.5和O3浓度的影响(对于PM2.5，2008—2019年其背景值极差的降幅分别为35%~81%或60%~86%；对于O3，极差的降幅分别为40%~67%或53%~87%). 采用多年滑动平均有助于科学设定和考核PM2.5和O3的控制目标. 研究显示:PM2.5和O3的协同控制依赖于NOx和VOCs的协同减排，其减排比例在不同地区存在差异；此外，科学的PM2.5和O3的协同控制还需要更大范围的联防联控和评价指标的持续更新.
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| 关 键 词： | PM2.5 O3 协同控制 气象波动 响应曲面模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-09-13 |
Responses of PM2.5 and O3 to Emission Reduction and Meteorology Variation and Their Policy Implications |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China2.State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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| Abstract: | Since the implementation of the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control, the PM2.5 concentrations in key regions has decreased rapidly, while O3 concentration has gradually increased. Therefore, the air pollution control target has changed from individual PM2.5 control to coordinated control of PM2.5 and O3. Understanding the responses of PM2.5 and O3 to changes in precursor emissions and meteorological conditions is of great significance for formulating coordinated control strategies for PM2.5 and O3. This study evaluated the response of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations to the changes of precursors and meteorological conditions using FNL reanalysis dataset, emission inventory of Air Benefit and Cost and Attainment Assessment System (ABaCAS-EI), the air quality model and response surface model. Based on the analysis of the response relationship, policy recommendations on precursor emission reduction, regional division of joint prevention and control, and target setting were proposed. The results show that: (1) VOCs emission reduction is beneficial to reducing PM2.5 and O3 concentration in all provinces. Insufficient NOx emission reduction will increase O3 concentration especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yantze River Delta regions. Meanwhile, the VOCs to NOx emission reduction ratio is 15%-25% for PM2.5 and 5%-90% for O3 to avoid this adverse effect. For the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the joint control of Henan and Shandong may need to be considered. For the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the joint control of Jiangxi and Fujian may be more important in the future. (3) Meteorological conditions have a great influence on PM2.5 and O3 background values. The effects of three-year moving average and five-year moving average on reducing PM2.5 and O3 fluctuation in each region are 35%-81% and 60%-86% for PM2.5, and 40%-67% or 53%-87% for O3. Applying multi-year moving averages to mitigate the variation of meteorological conditions helps to scientifically set and assess the targets for PM2.5 and O3. The results indicate that the coordinated control of PM2.5 and O3 depends on the coordinated emission reduction of NOx and VOCs, and the specific emission reduction ratio varies for different regions. In addition to precursor emission reduction, scientific and coordinated control of PM2.5 and O3 also requires a wider range of joint prevention and control and continuous update of evaluation indicators. |
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