| 河南水旱灾害危险性时空特征研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张竟竟,郭志富,李治国.河南水旱灾害危险性时空特征研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(6):957-968. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张竟竟 郭志富 李治国 |
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| 作者单位： | 商丘师范学院环境与规划系, 河南 商丘 476000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101072;U1204403);河南省科技厅科技攻关计划项目(132102310357);河南省教育厅科技研究重点项目(12A170006);商丘师范学院青年科研基金(2011QN20)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 河南省地处南北气候过渡带,水旱灾害频发。综合利用灾害数据资料及信息扩散模型,从致灾和承灾两个层面对河南省水旱灾害进行风险评估与时空特征研究,为加强水旱灾害的风险评估和管理提供理论依据。结果表明:①1988-2007年间发生水灾的年份主要是2003、2000、1998、1996、 2005,旱灾年份是1997、2001、1999、1992、1988;②当降水距平百分率为20%、30%、40%时,发生水灾的概率分别为0.10、0.06、0.04,当降水距平百分率为-20%、-30%、-40%时,发生旱灾的概率分别为0.13、0.07、0.03;③水灾在5%、10%和15%受灾率时的风险概率分别为0.81、0.54、0.35,即1~3 a一遇之间,当受灾率大于20%时,风险概率为0.22,大约4.5 a一遇;而旱灾在5%、10%、15%、20%、25%受灾率时的风险概率分别为0.87、0.72、0.58、0.47和0.38,即1.2 a、1.4 a、1.7 a、2.1 a和2.6 a一遇;④旱灾发生频率大于水灾,空间上具有较大的区域差异,水旱灾害高风险区主要是驻马店、南阳、平顶山一带,旱灾大于水灾的区域主要是三门峡、洛阳、郑州、焦作、安阳、许昌,水灾大于旱灾的区域主要是信阳、漯河、开封、商丘、周口、濮阳,水旱灾害均较小的是济源和鹤壁。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险评估 水灾 旱灾 信息扩散模型 河南省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-07-16 |
Research on Time and Spatial Characteristics of Flood and Drought Disasters Risk in Henan |
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| ZHANG Jing-jing,GUO Zhi-fu,LI Zhi-guo.Research on Time and Spatial Characteristics of Flood and Drought Disasters Risk in Henan[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(6):957-968. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jing-jing GUO Zhi-fu LI Zhi-guo |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Environment & Planning, Shangqiu Normal University, Shangqiu 476000, China |
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| Abstract: | Henan Province is located in the north-south climatic transitional zone with frequent flood and drought disasters. The risk probability of flood and drought disasters in Henan Province were researched with comprehensive utilization of disaster data and information diffusion model from two aspects of disaster-produced and disaster-consequence, so as to provide a theoretical basis for strengthening flood and drought risk assessment and management. The results showed that: 1) during the period of 1988－2007, the flood years are mainly 2003, 2000, 1998, 1996 and 2005, and the drought years are 1997, 2001, 1999, 1992 and 1988. 2) When the rainfall anomaly percentage were at 20%, 30% and 40%, the floods probabilities were 0.10, 0.06 and 0.04; when the rainfall anomaly percentage were at-20%,-30% and-40%, the droughts probabilities were 0.13, 0.07 and 0.03. 3) When the disaster occurrence rates of floods were 5%,10%,15%, the risk probabilities were 0.81, 0.54, 0.35 respectively, that was 1-3 a encounter, and when disaster rate was greater than 20%, approximately 4.5 a encounter; while the disaster rates of droughts were at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, the risk probabilities were respectively 0.87, 0.72, 0.58, 0.47, 0.38, and that were 1.2 a, 1.4 a, 1.7 a, 2.1 a, 2.6 a encounter. 4) The droughts occurred more frequently than the floods in Henan Province. There was a larger regional difference in space, both flood and drought high risk zones were mainly in Zhumadian, Nanyang, Pingdingshan, the regions with higher drought risk than floods were mainly in Sanmenxia, Luoyang, Zhengzhou, Jiaozuo, Anyang, Xuchang, and the regions with higher flood risk than drought were mainly in Xinyang, Luohe, Kaifeng, Shangqiu, Zhoukou, Puyang, in addition, the regions with both small flood and drought disasters risk were in Jiyuan and Hebi. |
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| Keywords: | risk assessment floods drought information diffusion model Henan Province |
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