Climate changes and overstory recruitment of larch at the northern timberline in the Yamal Peninsula

Studies on overstory recruitment of the Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) in open larch forests depending on the time of seedling establishment (1880–1980) have been performed in the northern timberline ecotone on the Yamal Peninsula. Two periods of active larch establishment have been revealed: from 1900 to 1935 and from 1950 to 1970. A comparison of these data with the results of instrumental observations on temperature and precipitation has shown that the overstory recruitment of larch in valleys of northern rivers is largely dependent on July air temperatures in the first years of tree life, when seedlings grow 10–20 cm high.     

Postfire succession in a forest of the cryolithozone: The example of central Yakutia

The results of studies on postfire succession in larch forests of the permafrost zone are discussed. The main directions of successional processes in burned-out areas of different ages are described. It has been shown that secondary pyrogenic successions in larch forests follow the scheme of rapid regeneration without tree species replacement and the model of succession tolerance. Groups of plant species with different life strategies and indicator species characterizing different stages of the overgrowing of burned-out areas have been identified.     

Diet structure of the Siberian roe deer in Yakutia

Daily food requirements and seasonal aspects of the diet have been studied in the Siberian roe deer (Capreolus pygargus Pall.) at the northernmost limits of its range in northeastern Asia, under specific sharply continental climatic conditions of the East Siberian light conifer (larch) taiga forests. Seasonal changes in the composition of the diet and the consumption of different food items are discussed.     

Soil as a factor of vegetation regeneration in natural pastures

Data are presented that show the significance of the humus state of chernozem soils, their amphiphilic (hydrophobic-hydrophilic) components, and related physical properties (density, structural condition, and water permeability) for regeneration of natural vegetation and restoration of its species com-position in pasture ecosystems.     

Radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia as dependent on climate change over the past 120 years

The results of studies on the radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia are presented. The application of dendroclimatological methods to the study of tree-ring chronologies has made it possible to evaluate tree growth response to the dynamics of climatic factors over the past 120 years. The results of analysis of radial tree increment show that the onset of the growing season has shifted to earlier dates by the end of the 20th century.     

Climate change and temperature rise in the Greater Beirut Area: implications on heat-related premature mortality

This study attempts to quantify climate change-induced increase in premature mortality associated with temperature rise with corresponding socioeconomic implications in the context of an urban coastal city, taking the Greater Beirut Area as a study area. Future climatic conditions under four different emissions scenarios were considered to cover a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. During the first half of the twenty-first century, the expected life losses due to high temperatures in hot days are offset by expected life gains due to improved temperatures in cold days, except under the scenario which characterizes fossil fuel intensive development. By the year 2095, the annual average all-cause premature mortality is expected to increase by 3–15 %, depending on the scenario.     

Spatial differentiation of the total bird population in a definite area

The spatial structure of the total bird population at the level of communities has been studied in a definite area at the boundary between northern open forests and forest-tundra. The boundaries of communities have been delimited by mapping out areas with a homogeneous species composition. The pattern of communities is shown to be as follows: the species-richest part of a local species assemblage (characteristic of a given landscape type) forms the basic community, which is surrounded by poorer communities of increasingly variable composition and configuration, depending on distance from the basic community. The most distant communities consist almost exclusively of abundant and widespread species. A group of borderline communities of mixed composition is located at the boundary between two landscape complexes. Mechanisms accounting for such a pattern are discussed.     

Evaluation of the usefulness of bird feathers as a non-destructive biomonitoring tool for organic pollutants: a comparative and meta-analytical approach

In this study, we investigated whether bird feathers can be used as a non-destructive biomonitor for organic pollutants. We analysed the outermost tail feathers of 8 terrestrial and aquatic bird species from Belgium (8 species, n=108) for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). Every compound class could be quantified in one single tail feather of the birds under study (sum PCBs ranging from 5.5 to 510 ng/g feather, sum PBDEs from 0.33 to 53 ng/g feather, sum DDTs from 1.5 to 730 ng/g feather), except for PBDEs in feathers of the common moorhen (Gallinula chloropus). Further, we calculated Pearson correlations between concentrations of organic pollutants in feathers and concentrations in corresponding muscle or liver tissue from the birds. Correlations were found significant in half of the cases of the terrestrial species, but were found not significant for the aquatic species, with the exception of a significant correlation of sum PCBs in the common moorhen. Only for the common buzzard (Buteo buteo) (n=43) all correlations were found significant (0.32相似文献   

Demographic structure of Siberian roe deer (Capreolus pygargus Pall.) population in central Yakutia

The dynamics of the sex and age structure of Siberian roe deer in central Yakutia has been analyzed over the period from 1998 to 2011. In the snowy winter of 2004, mass migration and high mortality of the animals were recorded. The following shift of the adult sex ratio in favor of females and increase in the proportion of calves provided for rapid population recovery. Climate warming, accompanied by increase in the amount of snow, has impaired living conditions for Siberian roe deer. Realization of the species reproductive potential is restrained by natural and anthropogenic elimination factors, and prospects for future population growth are poor.     

Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of climate change on a pine forest stand in Central Siberia (Zotino) to assess benefits and risks for such forests in the future. We use the regional statistical climate model STARS to develop a set of climate change scenarios assuming a temperature increase by mid-century of 1, 2, 3 and 4 K. The process-based forest growth model 4C is applied to a 200-year-old pine forest to analyse impacts on carbon and water balance as well as the risk of fire under these climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios indicate precipitation increases mainly during winter and decreases during summer with increasing temperature trend. They cause rising forest productivity up to about 20 % in spite of increasing respiration losses. At the same time, the water-use efficiency increases slightly from 2.0 g C l^?1 H₂O under current climate to 2.1 g C l^?1 H₂O under 4 K scenario indicating that higher water losses from increasing evapotranspiration do not appear to lead to water limitations for the productivity at this site. The simulated actual evaporation increases by up to 32 %, but the climatic water balance decreases by up to 20 % with increasing temperature trend. In contrast, the risk of fire indicated by the Nesterov index clearly increases. Our analysis confirms increasing productivity of the boreal pine stand but also highlights increasing drought stress and risks from abiotic disturbances which could cancel out productivity gains.     

Cyclicity of the European water vole population as a factor of biodiversity in ecosystems of Western Siberia

Population outbreaks of the European water vole (Arvicola amphibius = Arvicola terrestris) in the northern forest-steppe of Western Siberia have been analyzed over more than 100 years. The results show that the period of the A. amphibius population cycle averages 8 years and its amplitude reaches a factor of 10³–10⁴, with population outbreaks leading to large-scale rearrangements in the ecosystem. In particular, the abundance of other species in the murine rodent community decreases with a 1-year lag, while the abundance of myophagous predators increases in the last year of the outbreak or in the next year.     

Long-term dynamics of summer bird communities in the Arkaim reserve

Nesting bird communities of individual habitat types in the Arkaim reserve are formed every year under the influence of nonrandom factors. Their qualitative and quantitative composition may gradually shift in a certain direction, but more often it remains relatively stable over several years and then makes an abrupt transition into a different state. The strongest effect on the dynamics of these communities has been exerted by progressive succession following the assignment of special protection status to the Arkaim area. The effects of fires and other elemental factors are also significant.     

Comparing different environmental variables in predictive models of bird distribution

The response variable (often the presence of a species) in predictive habitat models relies on a set of environmental predictors. Among all known environmental predictors, vegetation has the most effect on species abundance and on their habitat preferences, due to the wide range of necessary resources that it provides for the survival of bird species. However, other predictors, in turn, affect bird distribution, and some-times they play a more important role in habitat selection, depending on the natural history and ecological needs of the bird species. In this regard, different analyses have been conducted to predict the distribution, and define habitat suitability (such as discriminant function analysis, General Linear Models, and ANOVA). In this study, all three analytical designs were used to investigate the relationship of seven bird species to the major environmental gradients in the study area, to find out the significance of each of these factors on habitat selection. GIS has been used to prepare spatial distributional data, and to overlay and calculate different aspects of the environmental factors. The results suggest that potential individual habitat patches play a small role compared to the landscape (entire corresponding habitat patches), when considering vegetation. The influence of built-up areas is significant for all the species, and the proximity to the sea shore is very significant for at least one of the species, however, it is not neutral for all other species.     

Effects of a participatory bird census project on knowledge, attitudes and behaviors of coffee farmers in Colombia

This study presents an evaluation of a participatory bird census (PBC) project that has been administered to coffee farmers in Colombia. Our objectives were (1) to evaluate the effect of the PBC project on conservation knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of coffee farmers and (2) to learn about the barriers farmers perceive toward adopting conservation practices. We conducted 261 interviews on four groups to control for the effects of involvement with an environmental coffee certification program (Rainforest Alliance??RA) and the PBC project. The four groups were (1) non-PBC participant, non-RA certified; (2) PBC participant, non-RA certified; (3) non-PBC participant, RA certified; and (4) PBC participant, RA certified. PBC participant/RA and PBC participant/non-RA were more knowledgeable about migratory and threatened birds. PBC participant/RA, PBC participant/non-RA, and non-PBC participant/RA groups believed they had the skills to perform bird conservation practices on their farms. A majority of respondents indicated that they were performing bird conservation practices and had positive attitudes toward birds. Farmers believed that lack of environmental awareness and lack of knowledge were the main barriers to perform bird conservation practices. Evaluating participatory programs with Colombian farmers can reveal environmental literacy improvements, but self-reported surveys may not be adequate to ascertain attitude changes and adoption of conservation practices. Direct observations on individual farms would be required to determine the impacts on such outreach efforts. Bird conservation seems popular with Colombian coffee farmers, and outreach programs that give detailed biodiversity management information could help aid bird conservation efforts on coffee farms.     

Formation of the spatial structure of bird populations as exemplified by the willow warbler and little bunting,species differing in site fidelity

The formation of the spatial structure of the willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus) and little bunting (Emberiza pusilla) populations differing in the degree of site fidelity was studied. The area populated by each species was subdivided according to how regularly its parts had been populated over a 16-year period and how synchronous the population dynamics were. The validity of some hypotheses detailing the population formation was tested by comparing simulated population dynamic curves in segments differing in quality with actual curves.     

Climate adaptation of interconnected infrastructures: a framework for supporting governance

Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current body of research on infrastructure adaptation does not adequately account for the interconnectedness of infrastructures, both internally and with one another. We take a step toward addressing this gap through the introduction of a framework for infrastructure adaptation that conceptualizes infrastructures as complex socio-technical “systems of systems” embedded in a changing natural environment. We demonstrate the use of this framework by structuring potential climate change impacts and identifying adaptation options for a preliminary set of cases—road, electricity and drinking water infrastructures. By helping to clarify the relationships between impacts at different levels, we find that the framework facilitates the identification of key nodes in the web of possible impacts and helps in the identification of particularly nocuous weather conditions. We also explore how the framework may be applied more comprehensively to facilitate adaptation governance. We suggest that it may help to ensure that the mental models of stakeholders and the quantitative models of researchers incorporate the essential aspects of interacting climate and infrastructure systems. Further research is necessary to test the framework in these contexts and to determine when and where its application may be most beneficial.     

Climate change in a regional context: relative vulnerability in the Australasian skier market

The concept of relative vulnerability allows for comparisons between analogous units in a regional context. It is utilised within tourism studies to consider how climate change might affect demand and perceived attractiveness of destinations relative to their competitors. This paper examines Australian tourists travelling to New Zealand’s ski fields, responding to the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) assertion that, “tourist flows from Australia to New Zealand might grow as a result of the relatively poorer snow conditions in Australia” (Hennessy et al. 2007: p 523). This travel flow is not a new phenomenon; however, it is forecast to increase as climate change impacts upon Australia’s natural and man-made snowmaking capacity with implications for the viability of the ski industries in both Australia and New Zealand. The Queenstown Lakes Region (South Island, New Zealand) serves as the field area for this study. The empirical research utilises a qualitative methodology for which in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with New Zealand ski industry representatives and Australian tourists during the southern hemisphere winter season of 2011. Findings suggest that the social context of vulnerability creates difficulty in forecasting the outcomes and behaviours associated with relative vulnerability. While tourism representatives’ focus on snow reliability and availability to conceptualise relative vulnerability, Australian tourists are influenced by a broader range of factors including their own travel experience. This paper demonstrates a clear need to move beyond a focus on snow reliability to consider the broad range of factors that contribute to regional variations in vulnerability. In doing so, it confirms the critical importance of situating relative vulnerability within a social context.