Association between esophageal cancer and drought in China by using Geographic Information System

The objective of this ecological study was to discover associations between selected climate variables and esophageal cancer (EC) mortality in China using a Geographic Information System (GIS). A digital distribution map of EC mortality in China was established in GIS, which was based on one-tenth of nationwide population cause-of-death surveys conducted in mainland China in 1990-1992. Selected climate variables such as 30-year annual average precipitation and evaporation data of the sample areas were extracted from the environmental databases by zonal statistics finished in Spatial Analyst module of ArcInfo 9.0. Drought Indexes were calculated by using the precipitation and evaporation data and a digital distribution map of them was created to compare with the distribution of EC mortality. Correlation and regression analyses were applied to evaluate associations between the EC mortality rates defined at the sample areas and selected climate variables from the raster datasets. The results of the digital GIS maps of EC mortality and Drought Index show that the high EC mortality mostly occurred in areas with high Drought Index. Correlation and regression analyses also show weak negative correlation between precipitation and EC mortality (p<0.001), and weak positive correlation between Drought Index and EC mortality (p<0.001). This study presented a unique model for the link of cancer and climate using a GIS. The study suggests that drought plays a role in the occurrence and development of EC in China, however, other environmental, biological and genetic factors should not be ignored. There is need for further studies using multiple factors and more accurate and detailed environmental and health data.     

Human mortality in Cyprus: the role of temperature and particulate air pollution

Climatic change results in increased occurrence of heat waves, and the thermal stress caused by such phenomena is leading to higher levels of heat-related mortality worldwide. This study is the first to examine the effect of extreme weather on mortality in Cyprus. It investigates the individual effect of meteorological indicators on mortality, as well as the role of particulate air pollution (PM₁₀). A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was implemented. GLM included a temperature function and was adjusted for relative humidity and seasonality. The temperature function was developed under a newly developed framework of distributed lag nonlinear models, which capture nonlinearities and delayed effects of heat simultaneously. GLM was extended to examine the confounding effect of air pollution. All the results on heat effects are presented. High temperatures had a significant effect on mortality with increased mortality rates, independent of humidity and seasonality. Mortality risk increased steeply above a temperature threshold. A direct heat effect was shown, with higher risk on the current and next day of a severe heat event. PM₁₀ was not found to have a confounding effect on the temperature–mortality relationship, since the strength of this relationship remained after the inclusion of PM₁₀ in the model. Differences existed between urban and coastal areas.     

Simple models of massive epidemics of herpesvirus in Australian (and New Zealand) pilchards.

In March 1995, a mass mortality of pilchard started to occur in South Australia. This spread very rapidly throughout the Australian pilchard's range, later reaching New Zealand. In November 1998, a similar mass mortality broke out in South Australia and also spread, at a slower rate, throughout the Australian range. The mortality appeared to be caused by a herpesvirus. The mortality spread as a classical epidemic front, but its speed of progress and the brief duration of mortalities at a given location are extreme. We apply simple epidemic modelling techniques, SIR and SEIR modelling, to examine the factors behind the spread of this mortality and the differences between the 1995 and 1998/9 epidemics. We discuss biological factors influencing the critical processes of long-distance (D) and local (beta) transmission of infection.     

What are distributed lag models of particulate matter air pollution estimating when there are populations of frail individuals?

The three-state (healthy, frail, and dead) population model is commonly used in time-series investigations of mortality displacement and particulate matter air pollution (PM). In this paper, the author proposes a new population model, called the mixture population model, that by allowing PM to have differential effects on individuals in the population, extends the population models currently used in investigations of mortality displacement. Using this new model, the properties of distributed lag models (DLM) of PM are investigated. In particular, the author derives a relationship between the parameters of the proposed population model and the estimates obtained from a DLM fitted to mortality arising from the model. This relationship provides insight into the interrelationships between the size of the frail population, the number of lags of PM included in a DLM and the proportion of the effect of PM on the healthy population that is estimable. The relationship will guide and contextualize future investigations by providing researchers with the knowledge to assess the consequences of the number of lags of PM included in a DLM in terms of what they can plausibly infer about the effect of PM on mortality based on this choice of lag.     

Relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in a subtropical city: Taipei, Taiwan

Air pollution has been associated with daily mortality in numerous studies over the past decade. However most of these studies were conducted in the United States and Europe with relatively few done in Asia. In the current study, the association between ambient air pollution and daily mortality in Taipei, Taiwan's largest city which has a subtropical climate was undertaken, for the period 1994-1998 using a case-crossover analysis. This design is an alternative to Poisson time series regression for studying the short-term adverse health effects of air pollution. The air pollutants examined included particulate matter (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), ozone (O(3)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and carbon monoxide (CO). The largest observed effect, which was without statistical significance, was seen for NO(2) and CO levels on deaths due to respiratory diseases (ORs=1.013 and 1.014, respectively). The well established link between air pollution levels and daily mortality may not be as strong in cities in subtropical areas, although other factors such as differences in pollutant mix or the underlying health of the population may explain the lack of a strong association in this study. Further studies of this type in cities with varying climates and cultures are needed.     

High resolution exposure modelling of heat and air pollution and the impact on mortality

BackgroundElevated temperature and air pollution have been associated with increased mortality. Exposure to heat and air pollution, as well as the density of vulnerable groups varies within cities. The objective was to investigate the extent of neighbourhood differences in mortality risk due to heat and air pollution in a city with a temperate maritime climate.MethodsA case-crossover design was used to study associations between heat, air pollution and mortality. Different thermal indicators and air pollutants (PM₁₀, NO₂, O₃) were reconstructed at high spatial resolution to improve exposure classification. Daily exposures were linked to individual mortality cases over a 15 year period.ResultsSignificant interaction between maximum air temperature (Ta_max) and PM₁₀ was observed. During “summer smog” days (Ta_max > 25 °C and PM₁₀ > 50 μg/m³), the mortality risk at lag 2 was 7% higher compared to the reference (Ta_max 15 °C and PM₁₀ 15 μg/m³). Persons above age 85 living alone were at highest risk.ConclusionWe found significant synergistic effects of high temperatures and air pollution on mortality. Single living elderly were the most vulnerable group. Due to spatial differences in temperature and air pollution, mortality risks varied substantially between neighbourhoods, with a difference up to 7%.     

三峡库区木洞江段圆口铜鱼幼鱼的生长特征及资源保护

根据2007年6月至2008年11月在三峡库区木洞江段进行的船罾网渔获物调查的数据,运用FAO开发的体长频率数据分析软件FisatⅡ对圆口铜鱼幼鱼的生长、死亡参数以及种群补充模式进行了估算。结果表明：圆口铜鱼幼鱼的体长范围为20～231 mm,优势体长为40～80 mm,占74.67%;体长和体重的关系式为W=1×10-5L3.030 2,von Bertalanffy生长方程的各参数为：渐进体长〖WTBX〗L∞＝694 mm,生长系数K＝0.16,t0＝-0.748。总死亡系数Z＝3.101 a-1,自然死亡系数M＝0.346 7 a-1,捕捞死亡系数F＝2.754 3〖WTBZ〗 a-1。种群补充模式表明,每年4～7月份为圆口铜鱼幼鱼主要补充期。开发率E＝0.89,圆口铜鱼处于资源过度利用状态。因此必须加强对圆口铜鱼资源的保护,建议适当调整禁渔期,并取缔船罾网,以利于圆口铜鱼资源的恢复与保护。〖     

Associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the Glasgow conurbation,UK

ObjectivesTo examine associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the population of Glasgow and the adjacent towns of Renfrew and Paisley over a 25-year period at different time lags (0–30 days).MethodsGeneralised linear (Poisson) models were used to investigate the relationship between lagged black smoke concentrations and daily mortality, with allowance for confounding by cold temperature, between 1974 and 1998.ResultsWhen a range of lag periods were investigated significant associations were noted between temperature-adjusted black smoke exposure and all-cause mortality at lag periods of 13–18 and 19–24 days, and respiratory mortality at lag periods of 1–6, 7–12, and 13–18 days. Significant associations between cardiovascular mortality and temperature-adjusted black smoke were not observed. After adjusting for the effects of temperature a 10 μg m^− 3 increase in black smoke concentration on a given day was associated with a 0.9% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3–1.5%] increase in all cause mortality and a 3.1% [95% CI: 1.4–4.9%] increase in respiratory mortality over the ensuing 30-day period. In contrast for a 10 μg m^− 3 increase in black smoke concentration over 0–3 day lag period, the temperature adjusted exposure mortality associations were substantially lower (0.2% [95% CI: − 0.0–0.4%] and 0.3% [95% CI: − 0.2–0.8%] increases for all-cause and respiratory mortality respectively).ConclusionsThis study has provided evidence of association between black smoke exposure and mortality at longer lag periods than have been investigated in the majority of time series analyses.     

Pesticide exposure and lung cancer mortality in Leningrad province in Russia

This study was carried out to examine the association between pesticide exposure and lung cancer mortality. We conducted an autopsy based case-control study in Leningrad Province in Russia. A total of 540 lung cancer cases and 582 controls were identified among subjects who had died in the hospitals of the Leningrad province between 1993 and 1998. Using work history records, we assessed exposure to pesticide at the level of industry and job title. Unconditional logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratio for pesticide exposure and lung cancer mortality. There was no association between ever exposure to pesticide and lung cancer mortality overall (odds ratio=1.06, 95% confidence interval=0.82-1.36) and in both men (odds ratio=1.11, 95% confidence interval=0.84-1.46) and women (odds ratio=0.74, 95% confidence interval=0.37-1.46). We observed no statistically significant odds ratio by duration of pesticide exposure, intensity of pesticide exposure, and cumulative pesticide exposures with lung cancer mortality in both smokers and nonsmokers. Odds ratio also did not differ when the analysis was restricted to individuals who had exposure data with high confidence scores. Our findings suggest no associations between pesticide exposures and mortality of lung cancer in the population of the Leningrad province in Russia that deserves further evaluation.     

Constrained confidence intervals in time series studies of mortality and air pollution

This paper focuses on constrained confidence intervals in the context of environmental time series studies where one seeks to ascertain the effects of ambient air pollution on human mortality. If the regression parameter representing such effects is non-negative, corresponding to a belief that more pollution cannot be beneficial, a desirable goal is to produce a constrained confidence interval for the parameter which is entirely non-negative. We show how this goal can be achieved using the method of tail functions. The proposed methodology is illustrated by the application to an environmental study of 100 cities in the United States involving regressions of mortality counts on levels of particulate matter air pollution. The large number of constrained CIs that contain zero is an indication that for the majority of the 100 cities there is not enough evidence to conclude a positive association between air pollution and mortality.     

Mortality attributable to extreme temperatures in Spain: A comparative analysis by city

BackgroundThe Low Temperature Days (LTD) have attracted far less attention than that of High Temperature Days (HTD), though its impact on mortality is at least comparable. This lower degree of attention may perhaps be due to the fact that its influence on mortality is less pronounced and longer-term, and that there are other concomitant infectious winters factors. In a climate-change scenario, the studies undertaken to date report differing results. The aim of this study was to analyse mortality attributable to both thermal extremes in Spain's 52 provinces across the period 2000–2009, and estimate the related economic cost to show the benefit or “profitability” of implementing prevention plans against LTD.MethodsPrevious studies enabled us: to obtain the maximum daily temperature above which HTD occurred and the minimum daily temperature below which LTD occurred in the 52 provincial capitals analysed across the same study period; and to calculate the relative and attributable risks (%) associated with daily mortality in each capital. These measures of association were then used to make different calculations to obtain the daily mean mortality attributable to both thermal extremes. To this end, we obtained a summary of the number of degrees whereby the temperature exceeded (excess °C) or fell short (deficit °C) of the threshold temperature for each capital, and calculated the respective number of extreme temperatures days. The economic estimates rated the prevention plans as being 68% effective.ResultsOver the period considered, the number of HTD (4373) was higher than the number of LTD (3006) for Spain as a whole. Notwithstanding this, in every provincial capital the mean daily mortality attributable to heat was lower (3 deaths/day) than that attributable to cold (3.48 deaths/day). In terms of the economic impact of the activation of prevention plans against LTD, these could be assumed to avoid 2.37 deaths on each LTD, which translated as a saving of €0.29M. Similarly, in the case of heat, 2.04 deaths could be assumed to be avoided each day on which the prevention plan against HTD was activated, amounting to a saving of €0.25M. While the economic cost of cold-related mortality across the ten-year period 2000–2009 was €871.7M, that attributable to heat could be put at €1093.2M.ConclusionThe effect of extreme temperatures on daily mortality was similar across the study period for Spain overall. The lower number of days with LTD meant, however, that daily cold-related mortality was higher than daily heat-related mortality, thereby making prevention plans against LTD more “profitable” prevention plans against HTD in terms of avoidable mortality.     

Associations between ultrafine and fine particles and mortality in five central European cities — Results from the UFIREG study

BackgroundEvidence on health effects of ultrafine particles (UFP) is still limited as they are usually not monitored routinely. The few epidemiological studies on UFP and (cause-specific) mortality so far have reported inconsistent results.ObjectivesThe main objective of the UFIREG project was to investigate the short-term associations between UFP and fine particulate matter (PM) < 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and daily (cause-specific) mortality in five European Cities. We also examined the effects of PM < 10 μm (PM₁₀) and coarse particles (PM_2.5–10).MethodsUFP (20–100 nm), PM and meteorological data were measured in Dresden and Augsburg (Germany), Prague (Czech Republic), Ljubljana (Slovenia) and Chernivtsi (Ukraine). Daily counts of natural and cardio-respiratory mortality were collected for all five cities. Depending on data availability, the following study periods were chosen: Augsburg and Dresden 2011–2012, Ljubljana and Prague 2012–2013, Chernivtsi 2013–March 2014. The associations between air pollutants and health outcomes were assessed using confounder-adjusted Poisson regression models examining single (lag 0–lag 5) and cumulative lags (lag 0–1, lag 2–5, and lag 0–5). City-specific estimates were pooled using meta-analyses methods.ResultsResults indicated a delayed and prolonged association between UFP and respiratory mortality (9.9% [95%-confidence interval: − 6.3%; 28.8%] increase in association with a 6-day average increase of 2750 particles/cm³ (average interquartile range across all cities)). Cardiovascular mortality increased by 3.0% [− 2.7%; 9.1%] and 4.1% [0.4%; 8.0%] in association with a 12.4 μg/m³ and 4.7 μg/m³ increase in the PM_2.5- and PM_2.5–10-averages of lag 2–5.ConclusionsWe observed positive but not statistically significant associations between prolonged exposures to UFP and respiratory mortality, which were independent of particle mass exposures. Further multi-centre studies are needed investigating several years to produce more precise estimates on health effects of UFP.     

Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities

The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960–2050 in 209 US cities. Cold waves were defined as two, three, or at least four consecutive days with daily temperature lower than the 5th percentile of temperatures in each city. The lingering period of a cold wave was defined as the non-cold wave days within seven days following that cold wave period. First, with 168 million residents in 209 US cities during 1962–2006, we fitted over-dispersed Poisson regressions to estimate the immediate and lingering effects of cold waves on mortality and tested if the associations were modified by the duration of cold waves, the intensity of cold waves, and mean winter temperature (MWT). Then we projected future mortality related to cold waves using 20 downscaled climate models. Here we show that the cold waves (both immediate and lingering) were associated with an increased but small risk of mortality. The associations varied substantially across climate regions. The risk increased with the duration and intensity of cold waves but decreased with MWT. The projected mortality related to cold waves would decrease from 1960 to 2050. Such a decrease, however, is small and may not be able to offset the potential increase in heat-related deaths if the adaptation to heat is not adequate.     

长江靖江段沿岸似鳊生长及种群参数估算

2012年1月~2013年12月连续24个月在长江靖江段沿岸收集似鳊标本2 334尾,采用基于体长频率数据的ELEFAN I技术估算长江近口段沿岸似鳊的生长参数与种群参数。结果表明:似鳊体长(L,cm)与体质量(W,g)幂函数关系为:W=0.0182×L~(2.948)(r=0.9823,n=2334)。Von Bertalanffy生长方程描述的似鳊生长参数为:极限体长(L_∞)=19.25 cm,生长系数(K)=0.2/a,理论生长起点年龄(t_0)为-1.59 a,体质量的生长拐点年龄为3.55 a。采用Pauly的经验公式估算似鳊自然死亡系数(M)为0.556/a。由长度变换渔获曲线法估算出的似鳊总死亡系数(Z)为1.638/a,捕捞死亡系数(F)和开发率(E)分别为1.082/a和0.66/a。2012~2013年长江靖江段沿岸似鳊年均资源重量和资源数量分别为120.59 t和947.4万尾。经相关估算参数和相对单位补充渔获量分析得出,当前长江靖江段沿岸似鳊已处于过度捕捞状态。建议将沿岸水域禁渔期延长至9月(即4~9月),以实现似鳊资源的恢复和可持续发展。     

Changing patterns of the temperature–mortality association by time and location in the US,and implications for climate change

The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature–mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1–5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.     

Inactivation of coliform bacteria in Black Sea waters due to solar radiation

The effects of solar radiation and temperature on bacterial die-off rates in Black Sea coastal waters using total coliform as the indicator organism were studied. Coliform die-off experiments were carried out in seawater samples collected along the coastline. The experiments were conducted in beakers filled with seawater that were kept at constant temperatures and exposed to solar radiation. The membrane filter technique was used for the coliform analysis. Temperature ranging between 9 and 26 degrees C and solar radiation between 20 and 60 cal/cm(2) h were tested. Experiments in the dark were also conducted to isolate the effect of solar radiation from the other factors and, furthermore, to determine the effect of temperature on bacterial die-off. The solar radiation was found to be the most significant factor affecting the mortality of coliform bacteria.     

Analysis of Survival of the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) at the Phases of Population Growth and Decline

Changes in the survival parameters of the red fox were analyzed at different phases of the population cycle. It was found that the survival rate in all age classes, including newborns, drastically increased at the phase of population growth. The relationship between the general mortality rate and population size was determined. A hypothesis concerning the mechanism of these changes in the general mortality rate is suggested.     

Short-term effects of particulate matter constituents on daily hospitalizations and mortality in five South-European cities: Results from the MED-PARTICLES project

BackgroundFew recent studies examined acute effects on health of individual chemical species in the particulate matter (PM) mixture, and most of them have been conducted in North America. Studies in Southern Europe are scarce. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between particulate matter constituents and daily hospital admissions and mortality in five cities in Southern Europe.MethodsThe study included five cities in Southern Europe, three cities in Spain: Barcelona (2003–2010), Madrid (2007–2008) and Huelva (2003–2010); and two cities in Italy: Rome (2005–2007) and Bologna (2011–2013). A case-crossover design was used to link cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions and total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality with a pre-defined list of 16 PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 constituents. Lags 0 to 2 were examined. City-specific results were combined by random-effects meta-analysis.ResultsMost of the elements studied, namely EC, SO₄^2 −, SiO_2, Ca, Fe, Zn, Cu, Ti, Mn, V and Ni, showed increased percent changes in cardiovascular and/or respiratory hospitalizations, mainly at lags 0 and 1. The percent increase by one interquartile range (IQR) change ranged from 0.69% to 3.29%. After adjustment for total PM levels, only associations for Mn, Zn and Ni remained significant. For mortality, although positive associations were identified (Fe and Ti for total mortality; EC and Mg for cardiovascular mortality; and NO₃⁻ for respiratory mortality) the patterns were less clear.ConclusionsThe associations found in this study reflect that several PM constituents, originating from different sources, may drive previously reported results between PM and hospital admissions in the Mediterranean area.     

Mortality and recruitment of mountain birch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula pubescens</Emphasis> ssp. <Emphasis Type="Italic">czerepanovii</Emphasis>) in the impact zone of a copper-nickel smelter in the period of significant reduction of emissions: The results of 15-year monitoring

Long-term monitoring of mountain birch populations (1992–2006) was performed in 14 test plots located at distances of 1 to 63 km from the copper-nickel smelter in Monchegorsk (Murmansk oblast) and differing in the degree of disturbance. In the period from 1999 to 2006, atmospheric emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals amounted to only one-third of those between 1992 and 1998, but birch mortality in heavily polluted areas (with nickel concentrations in leaves exceeding 160 mg/kg) remained at the same level, being absent (as previously) in less polluted areas. Throughout the observation period, birch recruitment was observed only in areas where nickel concentrations in the leaves were below 160 mg/kg; i.e., this concentration proved to be the threshold with respect to both mortality and recruitment of mountain birch. The course of demographic processes in its populations has remained unchanged after the reduction of emissions, confirming the hypothesis of the “inertial“ effect of industrial emissions on ecosystems. In some areas of industrial barrens, mountain birch may perish completely within the next decade.     

Exploring uncertainty of the change from ICD-9 to ICD-10 on acute mortality effects of air pollution

The change in ICD coding from ICD-9 to ICD-10 may produce inconsistencies and discontinuities in cause-specific mortality, thus impacting on effects estimates of air pollution on mortality. The current study was conducted in Wuhan, China. We examined the concordant rates and Kappa statistics using the mortality data from the year 2002 coded with both ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes and compared the estimated effects of air pollution using the Generalized Additive Model in R. We found high concordant rates (>99.3%) and Kappa statistics close to 1.0 (>0.98). Little difference was identified in the estimated effects of air pollution on daily cardiovascular, stroke, cardiac, cardiopulmonary, and respiratory mortality. This study provides evidence that, based on the wide definitions of cause-specific morality typically used in the studies of time-series air pollution mortality, the change in the ICD coding does not significantly affect the estimated effects of air pollution.