Using urban man-made ponds to reconstruct a 150-year history of air pollution in northwest England

A regional pollution history has been reconstructed for the borough of Halton (northwest England) from four urban ponds in north Cheshire and south Merseyside, using environmental analyses of lake sediment stratigraphies. Mineral magnetism, geochemistry and radiometric dating have produced profiles of pollution characteristics dating from the mid-nineteenth century to present day. These pollution profiles reflect the atmospheric deposition of a range of pollutants over 150 years of intensified industry. Distinct phases of pollution deposition and characteristics are identified reflecting: (1) intensification of industry in the nineteenth century; (2) expansion of industry during the twentieth century; (3) post 1956 Clean Air Acts. This work promotes the potential use of these pollution archives for use in epidemiology to better understand links between human health and environmental pollution, especially for diseases with long latency times, where retrospective pollution exposure assessments are important.     

Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa

The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.     

Helping a Species Go Extinct: The Sumatran Rhino in Borneo

The Sumatran rhinoceros has been declining in numbers for more than a century, primarily due to bunting and to loss of its habitat as land is converted to other uses. Only in the last quarter century has the international community made concerted efforts to reverse this decline. However, government officials, international funding agencies, and conservation organizations, while paying lip service to the need for strong action, have often taken the path of least resistance in helping this species. Much of the money and effort put toward Sumatran rhino conservation has focused on new technologies or politically expedient strategies that have little to do with the real reasons behind the rhino's decline. The primary means of Sumatran rhino conservation in Indonesia and Malaysia, where viable populations might still exist, is still the capture and attempted breeding of this species-which, until now, has failed. I examined the history of the Sumatran rhino in Borneo and the recent situation in Sabah, where at least two important populations of this species might still survive. Sabah is presented as a case study that is indicative of the plight of the Sumatran rhino throughout its present range.     

Trilepidea adamsii: An Obituary for a Species

Abstract. The factors leading to the presumed extinction of Trilepidea adamsii (Cheesem) Tiegh., an endemic New Zealand mistletoe, are discussed Although several factors are involved, including habitat loss, overcollecting, reduced seed dispersal, and browsing by the brush tailed possum (Tri-chosurus vulpecula Kerr.), interactions among these factors appear to have been particularly important in this extincion. Possums, introduced from Australia last century, probably expanded too late to have had a major impact on Trilepidea adamsii except perhaps at the very end, but they do seriously jeopardize the long term survival of several other plant species in New Zealand. Trilepidea adamsii illustrates the range of factors, and their interactions, that can lead to the extinction of a species.     

Uncertainty in future soil carbon trends at a central U.S. site under an ensemble of GCM scenario climates

This study uses DAYCENT model to investigate the sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) at an intensely cultivated site in the U.S. Midwest under an ensemble of scenario climates predicted by IPCC models. The model ensemble includes three IPCC models (Canadian, French, German), three emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) and three time periods (late 20th, mid-21st, late 21st century). DAYCENT shows that SOC at the site would decline by 0.3-2.6 kg m⁻² (5-35%) depending on the models and scenarios from late 20th to mid-21st century despite a larger increase of future net primary production (NPP) than respiration. The future SOC decrease is mostly attributable to harvest loss. The wide spread in future SOC decline rates are in part because SOC decrease (by respiration) is directly proportional to SOC itself. Any uncertainty in absolute SOC in DAYCENT would translate directly into its trend, unlike other variables such as temperature whose trends are independent of their values themselves, contrasting the reliability of SOC trend with temperature change.     

Testing a pyroclimatic hypothesis on the Mexico-United States border

The "pyroclimatic hypothesis" proposed by F. Biondi and colleagues provides a basis for testable expectations about climatic and other controls of fire regimes. This hypothesis asserts an a priori relationship between the occurrence of widespread fire and values of a relevant climatic index. Such a hypothesis provides the basis for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence based on climatic control. Forests near the Mexico-United States border offer a place to test the relative influence of climatic and other controls in mountain ranges that are ecologically similar and subject to broadly similar top-down climatic influence, but with differing cultural influences. We tested the pyroclimatic hypothesis by comparing fire history information from the Mesa de las Guacamayas, a mountain range in northwestern Chihuahua, with previously published fire data from the Chiricahua Mountains, in southeastern Arizona, approximately 150 km away. We developed a priori hypothetical models of fire occurrence and compared their performance to empirical climate-based models. Fires were frequent at all Mesa de las Guacamayas study sites through the mid-20th century and continued uninterrupted to the present at one site, in contrast to nearly complete fire exclusion after 1892 at sites in the Chiricahua Mountains. The empirical regression models explained a higher proportion of the variability in fire regime associated with climate than did the a priori models. Actual climate-fire relationships diverged in each country after 1892. The a priori models predicted continuing fires at the same rate per century as prior to 1892; fires did in fact continue in Mexico, albeit with some alteration of fire regimes, but ceased in the United States, most likely due to changes in land use. The cross-border comparison confirms that a frequent-fire regime could cease without a climatic cause, supporting previous arguments that bottom-up factors such as livestock grazing can rapidly and drastically alter surface fire regimes. Understanding the historical patterns of climate controls on fire could inform the use of historical data as ecological reference conditions and for future sustainability.     

试论二十一世纪高校体育师资的素质问题

二十一世纪高校体育师资的综合素质提出了更新、更高、更全面的要求,体育老师要跟上时代的步伐,适应现代体育改革与发展的需要就必须进一步提高自身的素质,这是未来高校体育工作的基础和关键.     

Utility of North Atlantic Right Whale Museum Specimens for Assessing Changes in Genetic Diversity

Abstract: We examined six historical specimens of the endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ) using DNA isolated from documented baleen plates from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Sequences from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region from these samples were compared with those from a near-exhaustive survey (269 of approximately 320 individuals) of the remaining right whales in the western North Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that there has been only relatively modest change in maternal lineage diversity over the past century in the North Atlantic right whale population. Any significant reduction in genetic variation in the species most likely occurred prior to the late nineteenth century. One historical specimen was from the last documented female capable of propagating one of the maternal lineages in the population today; no females in the existing population have been found to carry this mtDNA haplotype. Analysis of the only specimens from the eastern North Atlantic right whale population ever to be examined revealed that eastern and western North Atlantic right whales may not have been genetically differentiated populations. Loss of gene diversity experienced by North Atlantic right whales over the last century has been modest, and the six decades of protection have been successful in maintaining much of the maternal lineage diversity that was present in the late nineteenth century.     

Competitive mimicry: synthesis of a neglected class of mimetic relationships

Protective mimicry has been studied extensively for over a century. Mimicry in a competitive context, however, has remained largely neglected. It has been overlooked in mimicry classification schemes, and few systems have been rigorously studied. We define "competitive mimicry" as mimicry that enables access to a defended resource or aids in defense of a resource. We explain how competitive mimicry fits with existing mimicry classification schemes and outline criteria for identifying competitive mimicry systems. For each form of competitive mimicry, we describe the effects of the mimic on the model and receiver, predict the evolutionary dynamics of the system, and present examples. We then identify key directions for the study of competitive mimicry.     

Decline of a Native Mussel Masked by Sibling Species Invasion

Abstract: The European blue mussel (  Mytilus galloprovincialis ) has extensively invaded southern California, whereas a native species, M. trossulus , is abundant in northern California and further north. In this study, a portion of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene was sequenced from mussels collected in southern and central California in the nineteenth century. I aligned these sequences with 22 sequences representing modern M. galloprovincialis , M. edulis , and M. trossulus . Phylogenetic analysis using parsimony identified the nineteenth-century mussels as M. trossulus . Because mussel populations have been continuously present in this region since the time these mussels were collected, these data indicate that M. trossulus were present during the initial invasion of M. galloprovincialis , but, due to the morphological similarity of the two species, declined without notice.     

知识经济时代的企业经营与管理

21世纪经济正向着知识经济时代迈进.知识经济不仅对人类的生产方式和生活方式产生着深远影响,而且对企业的经营方式和管理模式也将产生深远的影响.我国企业在知识经济时代下,如何转变和调整经营与管理方式己成为新世纪的重大课题.     

Extinction of a West African Red Colobus Monkey

Abstract: We provide the first documented case of the extinction in the twentieth century of a widely recognized primate taxon. During surveys in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire in 1993–1999, we were unable to find any surviving populations of Miss Waldron's red colobus monkey (   Procolobus badius waldroni ), a primate taxon endemic to the forests of this part of West Africa. We conclude that this monkey, which at least one authority considers worthy of species status, is probably extinct. Hunting by humans appears to be the ultimate cause of the extinction. Until our surveys began, little attention had been paid to the plight of this red colobus monkey, despite its listing as endangered by the World Conservation Union. The extinction of other large animals in the Upper Guinea rainforest region is likely to follow soon unless more attention is paid to the full range of endangered forms and more resources are devoted to their rigorous protection.     

Lessons from Białowieża Forest on the history of protection and the world's first reintroduction of a large carnivore

Understanding how the relationships between large carnivores and humans have evolved and have been managed through centuries can provide relevant insights for wildlife conservation. The management history of many large carnivores has followed a similar pattern, from game reserved for nobility, to persecuted pests, to conservation targets. We reconstructed the history of brown bear (Ursus arctos) management in Bia?owie?a Forest (Poland and Belarus) based on a detailed survey of historical literature and Russian archives. From the end of the Middle Ages to the end of 18th century, the brown bear was considered “animalia superiora” (i.e., game exclusively reserved for nobility and protected by law). Bears, also a source of public entertainment, were not regarded as a threat. Effective measures to prevent damages to traditional forest beekeeping were already in practice. In the beginning of 19th century, new game‐management approaches allowed most forest officials to hunt bears, which became the primary target of hunters due to their valuable pelt. This, together with an effective anticarnivore policy enhanced by bounties, led to bear extirpation in 1879. Different approaches to scientific game management appeared (planned extermination of predators and hunting levels that would maintain stable populations), as did the first initiatives to protect bears from cruel treatment in captivity. Bear reintroduction in Bia?owie?a Forest began in 1937 and represented the world's first reintroduction of a large carnivore motivated by conservation goals. The outbreak of World War II spoiled what might have been a successful project; reproduction in the wild was documented for 8 years and bear presence for 13. Soft release of cubs born in captivity inside the forest but freely roaming with minimal human contact proved successful. Release of captive human‐habituated bears, feeding of these bears, and a lack of involvement of local communities were weaknesses of the project. Large carnivores are key components of ecosystem‐function restoration, and site‐specific histories provide important lessons in how to preserve them for the future.     

Projected vegetation changes for the American Southwest: combined dynamic modeling and bioclimatic-envelope approach

This study focuses on potential impacts of 21st century climate change on vegetation in the Southwest United States, based on debiased and interpolated climate projections from 17 global climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among these models a warming trend is universal, but projected changes in precipitation vary in sign and magnitude. Two independent methods are applied: a dynamic global vegetation model to assess changes in plant functional types and bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess changes in individual tree and shrub species and biodiversity. The former approach investigates broad responses of plant functional types to climate change, while considering competition, disturbances, and carbon fertilization, while the latter approach focuses on the response of individual plant species, and net biodiversity, to climate change. The dynamic model simulates a region-wide reduction in vegetation cover during the 21st century, with a partial replacement of evergreen trees with grasses in the mountains of Colorado and Utah, except at the highest elevations, where tree cover increases. Across southern Arizona, central New Mexico, and eastern Colorado, grass cover declines, in some cases abruptly. Due to the prevalent warming trend among all 17 climate models, vegetation cover declines in the 21st century, with the greatest vegetation losses associated with models that project a drying trend. The inclusion of the carbon fertilization effect largely ameliorates the projected vegetation loss. Based on bioclimatic envelope modeling for the 21st century, the number of tree and shrub species that are expected to experience robust declines in range likely outweighs the number of species that are expected to expand in range. Dramatic shifts in plant species richness are projected, with declines in the high-elevation evergreen forests, increases in the eastern New Mexico prairies, and a northward shift of the Sonoran Desert biodiversity maximum.     

Integrating Top-Down with Bottom-Up Conservation Policy in Africa

Abstract:  Developed nations intervened in conservation policy across Africa during the 20th century to address needs to protect species and biodiversity that were based on their own perceptions and priorities. In the 21st century, conservationists in Africa have revised these perceptions and begun the process of identifying conservation priorities from an African perspective and in consideration of Africans' priorities. Although foreign conservation interveners struggled to identify mechanisms to which local people would respond, African conservationists are now demonstrating how to integrate the continent's unique socioeconomic circumstances into efforts to protect biodiversity. In Africa effective conservation policy must include the generation of wealth, reduction of disease and hunger, and support of traditional land-use practices.     

Hydroclimatic variability drives episodic expansion of a floating peat mat in a North American kettlehole basin

The coming century is predicted to feature enhanced climatic variability, including increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climatic events. Ecologists are faced with the critical challenge of anticipating potentially nonlinear ecosystem responses to these changes. High-resolution paleoecological data sets that capture past ecosystem responses to climate variability provide valuable long-term perspectives on the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate-forced state shifts. We used a suite of paleoecological analyses at Titus Bog in northwestern Pennsylvania, USA, to test the hypothesis that the development and expansion of floating peatlands in kettlehole basins represents a threshold response to hydroclimate variability. In contrast with expectations of gradual autogenic peat mat expansion, our results indicate that peat mat expansion at Titus Bog was highly episodic and occurred in three distinct pulses centered on 800, 650, and 400 cal yr BP. Each of these expansion events coincided with or immediately followed decadal-to-mutlidecadal droughts recorded in regional paleoclimate reconstructions. These patterns indicate that peatland development in kettlehole basins can follow nonlinear trajectories, with episodes of rapid advancement triggered by climatic forcing. Future climate changes may increase the likelihood of peatland expansion in kettlehole basins, potentially leading to abrupt changes in adjacent lake ecosystems.     

The formation of protective dune ridge along the Southeast Baltic Sea coast: historical and social aspects

This paper is based on literature-based studies, as well as material collected by the author over more than 30 years on the shores of the Southeast Baltic Sea. In order to protect roads running along the shoreline from East Prussia to Königsberg, local shore reinforcement works commenced in the fifteenth century, although some individual attempts had been made before. In 1684, M. Ch. Hartknoch theoretically substantiated the necessity for, and methods of, shore reinforcement. The state of the shores deteriorated considerably during the Seven Years War (1756–1763), when woodlands growing along the shores were completely destroyed; hence, nearly 100 km length of the coast of the Kur?i? Nerija (Curonian) sand spit was left without any vegetation. Aeolian sand buried as many as fourteen settlements. This situation forced the authorities to organise maintenance of the coast and the dunes at the governmental level, and to start the formation of an uninterrupted dune ridge. The second half of the nineteenth century and the first half of the twentieth century are notable for the extensive construction of new ports. Along the shores running from the Sambian Peninsula to the Gulf of Riga, eight port engineering structures had been constructed with the intervals of approximately 26 km between the ports of Klaip?da and Liepaja, and every 13 km between Palanga and Pape. Shore management measures were being implemented simultaneously, thus ensuring the functioning of the above-mentioned coastal protection structures and the reduction of impacts upon the shores. In the second half of the twentieth century, ports were dredged and developed significantly. Their entrance channels reduced the long-shore sediment transport. Moreover, total sand reserves in the shore zone also diminished. The processes of erosion of the beaches and the dune ridge made it necessary to actively reinforce the shore. A number of countries passed legal acts governing the protection and use of the shore zone. At the turn of the twenty-first century, the incompatibility of such priorities in human activities as sea transport and recreation with nature protection has become evident. The conflict of interests in the Kur?i? Nerija National Park, the port of Klaip?da, and the resort of Palanga serve as good examples of such incompatibility. The conclusion that can be drawn that in twenty-first century is that the priorities in general coastal management should be as follows: harmonisation of interests among the states and individual fields of activities, as well as measures aimed at neutralisation of negative natural trends (higher frequency of storms, global rise of water level, etc.). The protective beach dune ridge will further play the role of efficient means for reducing shore erosion.     

Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model

Understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forests which hold about 7% of the global terrestrial biomass carbon is a major issue. An important mechanism in boreal tree species is acclimatization to seasonal variations in temperature (cold hardiness) to withstand low temperatures during winter. Temperature drops below the hardiness level may cause frost damage. Increased climate variability under global and regional warming might lead to more severe frost damage events, with consequences for tree individuals, populations and ecosystems. We assessed the potential future impacts of changing frost regimes on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) in Sweden. A cold hardiness and frost damage model were incorporated within a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS. The frost tolerance of Norway spruce was calculated based on daily mean temperature fluctuations, corresponding to time and temperature dependent chemical reactions and cellular adjustments. The severity of frost damage was calculated as a growth-reducing factor when the minimum temperature was below the frost tolerance. The hardiness model was linked to the ecosystem model by reducing needle biomass and thereby growth according to the calculated severity of frost damage. A sensitivity analysis of the hardiness model revealed that the severity of frost events was significantly altered by variations in the hardening rate and dehardening rate during current climate conditions. The modelled occurrence and intensity of frost events was related to observed crown defoliation, indicating that 6-12% of the needle loss could be attributed to frost damage. When driving the combined ecosystem-hardiness model with future climate from a regional climate model (RCM), the results suggest a decreasing number and strength of extreme frost events particularly in northern Sweden and strongly increasing productivity for Norway spruce by the end of the 21st century as a result of longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, according to the model, frost damage might decrease the potential productivity by as much as 25% early in the century.     

Towards a Coastal Area Management Act for the Russian Federation

Coastal area management should be considered as an element of a more general philosophy—that of natural resource management—which is in the process of replacing the purely ‘protection of the environment’ approach which was dominated most of the 20th century. Specific legislation on coastal management has been adopted by many countries, and today steps have been taken to acumulate all experience accumulated and to harmonize legal regulations on the international level. For the Russian Federation, formerly the Soviet Union, with an enormous sea-shore line to cope with, it is a new experience to develop a concept and a legal regulation specifically tackling coastal area management. The draft of a legislative act on coastal area management reflects the attempts to find ways for harmonizing various economic, environmental and social interests in this huge area, encompassing relevant Russian legislation in force as well as international conventions and treaties, and taking into considerations and treatices, and taking into consideration foregin expereience in this field.