Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.     

Formalising expert opinion through multi-attribute value functions: an application in landscape ecology

One of the main objectives of landscape ecology is to orient land-use planning by providing indications of optimal ecosystem patterning to support nature conservation. A frequent limitation to the practical use of the findings of landscape ecological studies is that they tend to focus on the identification and computation of indicators rather than on their interpretation and assessment. This paper presents and discusses the use of a methodology to formalise expert opinion through the elicitation of multi-attribute value functions. In particular, the value functions aim at assessing spatial indicators so as to provide an overall judgment of the viability of different ecosystem patches. The result consisted of the ranking of the ecosystems according to their degree of viability and therefore their suitability for nature conservation. The method of formalising expert opinion and knowledge complements traditional analyses based on the measurement of spatial ecological indicators.     

Ideology and wildlands management: The case of Rondeau Provincial Park,Ontario

This is a critical examination of some of the basic concepts that have guided management of parks and related reserves, often termed wildlands. Study is focussed on Rondeau Provincial Park, Ontario, and on concepts such as wilderness, primeval forest, and the Carolinian forest. Deer culling and other management policies and practices have been based upon the idea that the highly valued sassafras, tulip, and other species of the Carolinian forest are decreasing due to browsing. Field mapping and analysis of historic vegetation records indicate that this trend is not in fact occurring. Historic research also reveals difficulties in defining the Carolinian or other perceived types of forest for management purposes. A major reassessment of ideology and management policy and practice seem to be required in Rondeau and other wildlands. Vague or general concepts such as wilderness or preservation should be strongly complemented and supported by more precise statements of objectives, a learning attitude, and experimentation and research. As a result of the technical uncertainties and value judgments frequently involved, management should also be based upon the expressed preferences and continuing involvement of citizens.     

Estimating annual generation rates of total P and total N for different land uses in Tasmania, Australia

Water quality issues have become increasingly important to Australian catchment stakeholders. As extensive nutrient sampling and modelling expertise are often absent or unattainable, simple unit-area models like Catchment Management Support System (CMSS) remain an attractive option for informing water quality management decisions. The selection of nutrient generation rates for use in CMSS is often an arbitrary assignment based on limited literature sources or expert opinion. Using a Bayesian model to estimate nutrient generation rates for the region of Tasmania, Australia, improved the rigor of CMSS modelling and in the process highlighted that dairy pastures were the most significant contributor of total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads to Tasmanian rivers.     

Afforestation Planning and Biodiversity Conservation: Predicting Effects on Habitat Functionality in Lithuania

Habitat re-creation is one of the multiple faces of biodiversity restoration and encompasses the attempts to reconstruct an ecosystem on severely disturbed sites with little left to restore. Afforestation of abandoned or marginal agricultural land is an important tool for the re-creation of forest ecosystems and re-establishment of functional habitat networks for the maintenance of biodiversity. This study was performed in the context of the Danish-Lithuanian project ‘Afforestation of abandoned agricultural land based on sustainable land use planning and environmentally sound forest management’. The study assessed how habitat re-creation as designed in alternative afforestation plans for two administrative regions in Lithuania will affect the functionality of the landscapes for bird species of conservation concern. Spatial analysis of the forest cover was performed under existing and proposed conditions using general landscape ecological principles concerning core and edge habitats as well as nearest-neighbour metrics. The results show that the use of general criteria may result in proportionally negative changes in the availability of some forest habitats relative to changes in total forest cover, thus leading to less significant improvements in the habitats of many naturally occurring (and even protected) species compared to what would be expected from changes in forest cover alone. To solve this dilemma it is suggested that the requirements of focal species and quantitative conservation objectives should be considered in a spatially explicit – each main forest type. It is concluded that to ensure functionality of habitat networks, knowledge and experience from the fields of landscape ecology and conservation biology should be more commonly incorporated into afforestation planning.     

Whom to Trust? Public Concerns, Late Modern Risks, and Expert Trustworthiness

This article discusses the conditions under which the use of expert knowledge may provide an adequate response to public concerns about high-tech, late modern risks. Scientific risk estimation has more than once led to expert controversies. When these controversies occur, the public at large – as a media audience – faces a paradoxical situation: on the one hand it must rely on the expertise of scientists as represented in the mass media, but on the other it is confused by competing expert claims in the absence of any clear-cut standard to judge these claims. The question then arises, what expertise can the public trust? I argue that expert controversies cannot be settled by appealing to neutral, impartial expertise, because each use of expert knowledge in applied contexts is inextricably bound up with normative and evaluative assumptions. This value-laden nature of expert contributions, however, does not necessarily force us to adopt a relativist conception of expert knowledge. Nor does it imply active involvement of ordinary citizens in scientific risk estimation – as some authors seem to suggest. The value-laden, or partisan, nature of expert statements rather requires an unbiased process of expert dispute in which experts and counter-experts can participate. Moreover, instead of being a reason for discrediting expert contributions, experts' commitment may enhance public trustworthiness because it enlarges the scope of perspectives taken into account, to include public concerns. Experts who share the same worries as (some of) the public could be expected to voice these worries at the level of expert dispute. Thus, a broadly shaped expert dispute, that is accessible to both proponents and opponents, is a prerequisite for public trust.     

Associations between forest characteristics and socio-economic development: a case study from Portugal

The integration of socio-economic and environmental objectives is a major challenge in developing strategies for sustainable landscapes. We investigated associations between socio-economic variables, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition in the context of Portugal. The main goals of the study were to 1) investigate relationships between forest conditions and measures of socio-economic development at national and regional scales, 2) test the hypothesis that a systematic variation in forest landscape metrics occurs according to the stage of socio-economic development and, 3) assess the extent to which landscape metrics can inform strategies to enhance forest sustainability. A ranking approach and statistical techniques such as Principal Component Analysis were used to achieve these objectives. Relationships between socio-economic characteristics, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition were only significant in the regional analysis of municipalities in Northern Portugal. Landscape metrics for different tree species displayed significant variations across socio-economic groups of municipalities and these differences were consistent with changes in characteristics suggested by the forest transition model. The use of metrics also helped inform place-specific strategies to improve forest management, though it was also apparent that further work was required to better incorporate differences in forest functions into sustainability planning.     

Empirical study on voting power in participatory forest planning

Multicriteria decision support systems are applied in natural resource management in order to clarify the planning process for the stakeholders, to make all available information usable and all objectives manageable. Especially when the public is involved in planning, the decision support system should be easy to comprehend, transparent and fair. Social choice theory has recently been applied to group decision-making in natural resources management to accomplish these objectives. Although voting forms the basis of democracy, and is usually taken as a fair method, the influence of voters over the outcome may vary. It is also possible to vote strategically to improve the results from each stakeholder's point of view. This study examines the use of social choice theory in revealing stakeholders' preferences in participatory forest planning, and the influence of different voters on the outcome. The positional voting rules examined were approval voting and Borda count, but both rules were slightly modified for the purposes of this study. The third rule examined, cumulative rule, resembles utilitarian voting rules. The voting rules were tested in a real participatory forest planning situation in eastern Lapland, Finland. All voting rules resulted in a different joint order of importance of the criteria. Yet, the preference orders produced had also a lot in common and the criteria could be divided into three quite distinct groups according to their importance. The influence of individual voters varied between the voting rules, and in each case different voter was the most influential.     

The multiple communities of low-carbon transition: an assessment of communities involved in forest carbon measurement

In recent writing on sociotechnical transitions theory communities are mostly conceived of as being local and place-based (“grassroots”). In this paper the implications for sociotechnical transitions theory of having multiple communities operating at different geographical scales, and with different objectives, are examined through a case study of low-carbon innovation in forests. The focus of analysis is the communities promoting sociotechnical innovations in the measurement of forest carbon. Innovation is being driven by the international United Nations climate policy initiative “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation” (REDD+). The rise of REDD+ policy has prompted a flurry of activity in related scientific research, especially in the field of remote sensing. But other types of community are also actively positioning themselves as experts in forest carbon measurement: there are multiple communities at work, each with varying claims to innovation and expertise, from local (place-based) forest communities to international communities of foresters and forest ecologists. Recognition of the multiple communities operating within sociotechnical systems usefully draws our attention to the politics of innovation.     

Integrating objectives and scales for planning and implementing wetland restoration and creation in agricultural landscapes

Traditionally, wetland management strategies have focused on single familiar objectives, such as improving water quality, strengthening biodiversity, and providing flood control. Despite the relevant amount of studies focused on wetland creation or restoration with these and other objectives, still little is known on how to integrate objectives of wetland creation or restoration at different landscape scales. We have reviewed the literature to this aim, and based on the existing current knowledge, we propose a four step approach to take decisions in wetland creation or restoration planning. First, based on local needs and limitations we should elucidate what the wetland is needed for. Second, the scale at which wetland should be created or restored must be defined. Third, conflicts and compatibilities between creation or restoration objectives must then be carefully studied. Fourth, a creation or restoration strategy must be defined. The strategy can be either creating different unipurpose wetlands or multipurpose wetlands, or combinations of them at different landscape scales. In any case, in unipurpose wetland projects we recommend to pursue additional secondary objectives. Following these guidelines, restored and created wetlands would have more ecological functions, similar to natural wetlands, especially if spatial distribution in the landscape is considered. Restored and created wetlands could then provide an array of integrated environmental services adapted to local ecological and social needs.     

Carbon sequestration,biological diversity,and sustainable development: Integrated forest management

Tropical deforestation provides a significant contribution to anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentration that may lead to global warming. Forestation and other forest management options to sequester CO₂ in the tropical latitudes may fail unless they address local economic, social, environmental, and political needs of people in the developing world. Forest management is discussed in terms of three objectives: carbon sequestration, sustainable development, and biodiversity conservation. An integrated forest management strategy of land-use planning is proposed to achieve these objectives and is centered around: preservation of primary forest, intensified use of nontimber resources, agroforestry, and selective use of plantation forestry. The information in this document has been wholly funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. It has been subjected to the agency's peer and administrative review and approved for publication of an EPA document. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

Beyond geomorphosites: trade-offs, optimization, and networking in heritage landscapes

This study uses Danxiashan, a world heritage site in Guangdong province, China, as a case study for planning a hypothetical geotourism network of heritage sites. This landscape has a multiplicity of values—its geoheritage cannot be separated from its ecological or cultural heritage. When designing a network of heritage sites for such a diversely valued landscape trade-offs must be made between differing and potentially conflicting objectives such as geotourism and geoconservation. To solve this multi-criteria decision problem, sites with potential value for people were designated as heritage sites, adapting the concept of geomorphosites—i.e., geomorphological heritage sites—to represent the intersection of anthropic values. In a GIS-based spatial decision support system heritage values for each site were weighted and ranked using the analytic hierarchy process and scenarios for alternative trail systems, and networks of tourism sites were generated by multi-criteria map overlay analysis and networking algorithms. The scenarios generated show how trade-offs can be made between oft-conflicting tourism and conservation objectives, how the design of parks can be optimized for multiple objectives, and how alternative design strategies can be explored. Such an approach could be used in scenario planning workshops to engage stakeholders in participatory design and consensus-based decision-making driven by geospatial science.     

Expertise,safety, reliability,and decision making: practical industrial experience

This paper presents our practical experience of expert opinion deduced from concrete field applications, concerning mainly safety and reliability modeling. First, expertise is defined and the approach used for eliciting expertise is shortly described. Quality and value of information from experts are important challenges for decision making from risk analysis. Expertise is very useful for supplying data when not enough field observations are available for estimating parameter uncertainties and quantifying risk analysis models, which are inputs to a decision-making process. Applications presented herein concern mainly the role of expert judgment in reliability.     

Comparing two sets of forest cover change knowledge used in forest landscape management planning

Forecasts of future resource states are central to resource management planning. Many simulation models and planning tools are used to produce such forecasts and apply knowledge of resource change dynamics as key input. Consistency among knowledge sources is therefore important to avoid knowledge ambiguity and uncertainty in resource forecasts and management plan outcomes. Using Ontario's boreal forest landscape as a case study, this paper examined two knowledge sources of forest resource change, practitioner expertise and research studies, commonly applied in plans and policies for large forest landscapes. The two knowledge sources were quantitatively compared by constructing networks of forest cover change for both sources and determining their agreement in structure and transition times. Some networks agreed well, indicating little knowledge ambiguity and comparatively low uncertainty if they were used to forecast forest landscapes. Other networks showed low agreement, thus indicating higher knowledge ambiguity and a dilemma of choice for forest landscape planners who may have to select from these knowledge sets. It is suggested that knowledge disagreements may be widespread in knowledge-driven management planning of many natural resource types and their causes similar. These disagreements signal areas of knowledge uncertainty, where resource planners must address resulting uncertainty of management outcomes and research should focus on improving resource change knowledge.     

Timber harvest planning—A combined optimization/simulation model

A special cascading fixed charge structure can be used to characterize a forest management planning problem in which the objectives are to identify the optimal shape of forest harvest cutting units and simultaneously to assign facilities for logging those units. We describe a four-part methodology that has been developed to assist forest managers in analyzing areas proposed for harvesting. This methodology performs an analysis of harvesting feasibility, computes the optimal solution to the cascading fixed charge problem, undertakes a GASP IV simulation to provide additional information about the proposed harvesting operation, and permits the forest manager to perform a time-cost analysis that may lead to a more realistic, and thus improved, solution.     

Canada's Model Forests 20 years on: towards forest and community sustainability?

We review how Canadian Model Forests pursued forest and community sustainability over the course of two decades (1992–2012). Given its roots in the forest industry and forest science, Model Forest programming initially faced some challenges in pursuing the socio‐economic dimensions of sustainable forest management (SFM) in order to fulfil mandated community sustainability objectives. This was due, in part, to how objectives, stakeholders, and expertise were brought together to develop SFM. The programme helped to define sustainability and the SFM paradigm, advance forest science and social research, and bring together a mix of usually adversarial partners in the name of innovation. Ultimately, the termination of federal programming was linked to high‐level policy shifts, yet difficulty in delivering on the socio‐economic dimensions of SFM during a period of forest sector and community crisis was also a factor.     

A SPATIAL LINEAR PROGRAM FOR OPTIMALLY SCHEDULING FOREST MANAGEMENT TO MEET STORMFLOW OBJECTWES1

ABSTRACT: A spatial linear program that strategically arranges and schedules forest treatments so as to meet peak stormflow objectives is formulated and demonstrated. The approach uses simulated spatial routing of stormflows nested as short‐term time schedules within longer‐term forest planning time periods. A simple case example is used to demonstrate the formulation and explore its spatial sensitivity.