Drought and development in marsabit district, kenya

Extensive drought in the 1970s and 1980s prompted national and international development efforts aimed at the pastoralist populations of Marsabit District of Kenya. Famine relief efforts by the Catholic Church and the African Inland Mission contributed to the settling of former nomads and the growth of small towns, while international development efforts, including UNESCO's Integrated Project in Arid Lands (IPAL) focused on range conservation and the improvement of livestock marketing. The sedentarization of pastoralists has led to greater access to health care, education, and other social services, but has also contributed to economic differentiation and rural proletarianization. Local economies are now based on a combination of subsistence pastoralism, livestock marketing, and wage-labor, indicating that the process of sedentarization is a complex one with varying consequences for different sectors of the population.     

河南省境内淮河流域历史时期旱涝等级序列的重建

本文根据旱涝史料，运用旱涝等级评定法，对河南省境内淮河流域１４７０～１９４９年逐年的旱涝状况进行了评定；并采用“区域综合法”，重建了河南省境内淮河流域１４７０～１９４９年的旱涝等级序列。     

Restocking refugee pastoralists in the horn of Africa

Repeated and lingering famine in the Horn of Africa has produced enormous pastoralist refugee populations in a region where livestock production is a major form of land use. Permanently settling destitute pastoralists has a record of failure. It can disrupt host land-uses, causing social and ecological problems, and prevent the utilization of very large grazing areas where pastoralism may be the only ecologically and economically sustainable land-use. Herd reconstitution should be considered an option in relief and rehabilitation programmes for pastoralists. This paper examines a design where the most proven and immediate way of sustaining stockless pastoralists – farming – can be used to facilitate restocking objectives. Using data gathered in Somalia, estimates of livestock carrying capacity are linked with forage resources, land area, livestock units, and the frequency of good, average, and poor (drought) water years, to explore the possibilities for incorporating restocking into refugee rehabilitation efforts.     

Famine intensity and magnitude scales: a proposal for an instrumental definition of famine

Ambiguities in current usage of the term "famine" have had tragic implications for response and accountability in a number of recent food crises. This paper proposes a new approach to defining famine based on the use of intensity and magnitude scales, where "intensity" refers to the severity of the crisis at a given location and point in time, while "magnitude" describes the aggregate impact of a crisis. The scales perform three operations on "famine": first, moving from a binary conception of "famine/no famine" to a graduated, multi-level definition; second, disaggregating the dimensions of intensity and magnitude; and third, assigning harmonised "objective" criteria in place of subjective, case-by-case judgements. If adopted, the famine scales should contribute to more effective and proportionate responses, as well as greater accountability in future food crises.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Monitoring and responding to famine: lessons from the 1984 - 85 food crisis in kenya

The geographic and temporal scale of institutional responses to food crises suggests three levels of food information or famine early warning system: a seasonal national food balance, baseline data on household food poverty and estimates of vulnerability to climatic and economic variations, and targeted interventions based on individual entitlements and food deprivation. Stimulating the demand for food information, beyond the need to forecast famines, is a crucial factor in the adoption of improved monitoring systems. Issues in the design of food information systems are illustrated by the experience in Kenya in 1984–85. The government of Kenya responded to the 1984 drought and ensuing food crisis to prevent widespread famine, largely through timely commercial imports of yellow maize. Although qualified by the nature of the drought and Kenya's economic development, this success story emphasises the need to improve food information systems.     

Hunger, poverty and food aid in Sub-Saharan Africa: Retrospect and potential

Frustrations and failures will continue to mount if we do not immediately summon the courage to revise the ways we think and take action-as well as maintaining essential services to support life and health … Saving hundreds of thousands … who are at risk of dying from malnutrition or infection is an immediate imperative. But it must be only one stage in the progress toward other activities, and one element in the truly comprehensive approach… The main intent of this paper is to explore aspects of the nature and evolution of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa with special reference to food and hunger and their interaction with macro-economic policy. An attempt is made to outline the overall context within which food aid needs to be used in order to have a greater developmental impact. Following an Introductory Section I, Section II provides a sketch map of how recession and lagging food production - with cyclical weather crises superimposed - affect the human condition of poor people. Section III reviews die interaction between "standard" IMF stabilization and World Bank structural adjustment strategies and poverty/hunger. Improvements in the design of stabilization and adjustment programmes, and of the inter-relationship with them of emergency programmes, can be identified. A number turn on the broadened and more innovative or catalytic use of food aid. Section IV reviews aspects of facing a continuing series of emergencies and of designing life support programmes to facilitate rehabilitation of the households directly affected as well as of the national economies. From this base it explores a series of elements in achieving renewed development. The concluding Section seeks to explore the strengths, limitations and potentials of food aid in the context set by the previous sections. The standard criticisms of food aid appear to be overstated and/or to relate to particular modalities or approaches rather than to anything intrinsic. A number of criteria for improving the effectiveness of food aid - especially in respect to rehabilitation, recovery and renewed development - are set out.     

水库抗旱调度分期特征确定方法研究

为在一定程度上减轻流域干旱损失,国家防汛抗旱总指挥部提出旱限水位的概念,并开展水库抗旱调度,降低干旱影响程度。旱限水位是水库低水位运行的控制性水位,其合理设置对提高区域水资源利用率意义重大,而水文气象特征在年内的阶段性变化要求基于旱限水位的水库管理应适应其变化特征。此次研究提出水库抗旱调度分期的确定方法,采用核主成分分析法提取指标的非线性特征,结合熵权法赋予指标权重后利用Fisher最优分割法对干旱的年内阶段性变化进行划分。以黄河流域刘家峡和小浪底水库为例,分期结果刘家峡水库分3期为:7月至9月,10月至3月,4月至6月;小浪底水库分3期为:7月至10月,11月至3月,4月至6月。     

基于DEM的山区旱灾风险评价模型——以西南地区为例

旱灾研究中,地形导致的水热再分配容易造成地域间旱灾灾情的明显差异,因此地形因子对于旱灾风险的准确评价及灾情的客观评估至关重要。采用气象站点观测数据和DEM数据,通过模拟复杂地形影响下的下垫面真实水分情况,加入地形因子的影响,建立了以干旱致灾因子(水分条件)、孕灾环境(地形)、承灾体(农作物脆弱性曲线)综合的旱灾风险评价三度模型;并以地形复杂、旱灾多发的西南地区为例,编制了旱灾风险等级图,以期为客观评估旱灾灾情,有效开展区域旱灾风险防范提供科学依据。     

山东省旱,涝,地震灾害的时序特征及其相互关系

分析了山东地区历史干旱、洪涝和地震灾害时间分布特征及其相互关系，发现旱涝与地震灾害一样具有不同时间尺度的准周期活动特征，且地震与旱涝具有一定相关关系．如内陆大地震多与干旱活动相继发生，海域地震多发生在洪涝活动时期；破坏性地震前多发生干旱，震后又常有洪涝相随等。进而对山东旱涝活动进行了初步分期。文中还对上述现象的成因作了简单分析。     

华北地区冬小麦干旱时空分布特征

根据作物气候指标距平,利用经验正交函数和小波分析方法,研究了华北地区冬小麦干旱的空间分布和时间演变特征。研究结果表明,主要有3种空间分布类型:以中西部为中心的全区一致型;西北、东南相反分布型,其正值中心分布在北京、霸州等区域,负值中心分布在济南、淄川、临沂等区域;东、西相反分布型,其正值中心分布在河北省东北部的唐山、秦皇岛和山东省的烟台、福山、海阳为等区域,负值中心分布在河北省的邢台、石家庄以及河南省的安阳和新乡等区域;3种空间分布型时间系数变化趋势都表明,20世纪90年代以后华北地区冬小麦干旱呈加重的趋势。     

Humanitarian information systems and emergencies in the Greater Horn of Africa: logical components and logical linkages

Natural and man-made emergencies are regular occurrences in the Greater Horn of Africa region. The underlying impoverishment of whole populations is increasing, making it more difficult to distinguish between humanitarian crises triggered by shocks and those resulting from chronic poverty. Shocks and hazards can no longer be seen as one-off events that trigger a one-time response. In countries that are both poor and exposed to frequent episodes of debilitating drought or chronic conflict, information needs tend to be different from the straightforward early warning/commodity accounting models of information systems that have proven reliable in past emergencies. This paper describes the interdependent components of a humanitarian information system appropriate for this kind of complex environment, noting the analytical links between the components and operational links to programme and policy. By examining a series of case studies from the Greater Horn region, the paper demonstrates that systems lacking one or more of these components will fail to provide adequate information--and thus incur humanitarian costs. While information always comes with a cost, the price of poor information--or none--is higher. And in situations of chronic vulnerability, in which development interventions are likely to be interspersed with both safety nets and emergency interventions on a recurrent basis, investment in improved information is a good investment from both a humanitarian and a financial viewpoint.     

Coping with drought and food insecurity in ethiopia

In this article I examine the impact of drought on farm households in Ethiopia and their response to crisis conditions. I ask whether every household in a community is equally affected by drought and what households do to mitigate the effects of drought and associated food insecurity. Information on production, income and food consumption is disaggregated by agroecological zone (highland and lowland), and by socioeconomic strata (relatively wealthy versus poor). Such detailed analysis permits an improved understanding of why the poor are much more vulnerable than the wealthy to drought and associated famines and why they need to be more effectively targeted by relief and development interventions. In a world of limited public resources for crisis intervention, such understanding is crucial to the design of improved policies and projects for reaching people most at risk.     

Food Crises, Crisis Response and Emergency Preparedness: The Sudan Case

Food security problems should be seen as "normal" in and endemic to subsistence agricultural groups in semi-arid zones of developing countries. Natural, popular response mechanisms exist that address these problems when they are at "normal" levels. All response mechanisms in developing countries can be expected to be swamped in times of a major food emergency. During major crises international relief assistance will continue to play a crucial role. Attempts at imposing centralized, institutional social security systems that address the normal "pockets of need" syndrome will be extremely expensive, not self-sustaining, and prone to failure. In that these efforts may undermine natural response mechanisms and draw scarce resources away from more logical, decentralized relief agencies these efforts may prove dangerously counter-productive.     

不同经济地带旱灾灾情变化及其与粮食单产波动的关系

旱灾是造成我国农业经济损失中最严重的气象灾害,加强旱灾研究已是当务之急。选择旱灾受灾面积占总受灾面积之比、旱灾受灾率、旱灾成灾面积占总成灾面积之比、旱灾成灾面积占旱灾受灾面积之比、旱灾受灾率异常指数等作为旱灾灾情指标,通过对东、中、西三大经济地带旱灾灾情的时空变化规律,及其与粮食单产波动相关关系的分析,探讨了我国粮食生产的波动性及受旱灾影响的区域特征。结果表明,三大经济地带旱灾受灾程度在20世纪70年代以后呈加重态势,且与粮食单产波动系数具有较明显的负相关关系。     

The United Nations' humanitarian pillar: refocusing the UN's disaster and emergency roles and responsibilities

Changes in the nature of humanitarian crises and in the ways that the international community responds to such crises demand a radically overhauled role for the United Nations system. At a time when the UN and its member states are pursuing reform of some of that institution's most fundamental peace and security functions, this paper suggests that reform, too, is required to meet humanitarian crises of the future. This paper proposes a new type of operational role for the UN, while at the same time arguing that the UN has to place itself in the vanguard of humanitarian assistance as "the standard-bearer". The article draws many of its conclusions and recommendations from a recently completed study, requested by the Inter-Agency Standing Committee, concerning the effect for the UN system of changes in humanitarian financing.     

The impact of drought on production, consumption and nutrition in southwestern kenya

In this paper I compare the effects of the 1984 drought on agricultural production, income, food consumption, and nutrition of farm and non-farm households in South Nyanza District, Kenya. Survey work covered the period 1984 to 1987. It was the late arrival of the long rains in spring 1984, rather than an absolute shortfall in rain, that caused most of the fluctuations in agricultural production. Agricultural households who were least affected by the drought were able to cope by increasing the amount of cultivated land and by relying more on coarse grain production. Coping strategies for the landless households in South Nyanza were more limited and this group of households therefore experienced greater fluctuations in income between the drought and non-drought periods than did most types of agricultural households. Surprisingly, changes in food consumption between the drought and non-drought periods were small for most households. In spite of differences in production, food availability and incomes, however, the health and nutritional status of pre-school-aged children was not significantly different in the two time periods. Differences in health and nutritional status appear to be influenced more by community-level health and sanitation factors than by differences in agricultural production and incomes in drought and non-drought years.     

我国秦至清末的疫病灾害研究

本文根据《中国历代天灾人祸表》中疫病的文字记载，统计出各个历史时期疫病发生时间（季节）、频数及其与旱、涝（水）、地震、战争等灾难事件的关系，进而推测历史时期疫病所包含的急性传染病。统计发生周期，证实疫病周期与太阳、太阳系活动规律有明显的相关性。     

Changing household responses to drought in Tharaka, Kenya: vulnerability, persistence and challenge

Drought is a recurring challenge to the livelihoods of those living in Tharaka District, Kenya, situated in the semi-arid zone to the east of Mount Kenya, from the lowest slopes of the mountain to the banks of the Tana River. This part of Kenya has been marginal to the economic and political life of Kenya from the colonial period until the present day. A study of more than 30 years of change in how people in Tharaka cope with drought reveals resilience in the face of major macro-level transformations, which include privatisation of landownership, population growth, political decentralisation, increased conflict over natural resources, different market conditions, and environmental shifts. However, the study also shows troubling signs of increased use of drought responses that are incompatible with long-term agrarian livelihoods. Government policy needs to address the challenge of drought under these new macro conditions if sustainable human development is to be achieved.