Some Dependence Models for the Time Between Ozone Exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider several modelling approaches for the mean time between exceedances of a given environmental threshold. The interest here resides in the time between ozone exceedances (also called ozone inter-exceedances times). The proposed models assume two basic density functions for the time between surpassings: the Weibull and the generalised exponential functions. Considering those distributions, a random effect with autoregressive structure is taken into account to determine unexpected changes in the mean of the inter-exceedances density functions. Those unexpected changes could be captured either by their scale parameter or by both their scale and shape parameters. The models are applied to ozone data from the monitoring network of Mexico City. Selection of the model that best explains the data is performed using the deviance information criterion and also the sum of the absolute values of the differences between the estimated and observed means of the inter-exceedances times. An analysis to detect the possible presence of change-points is also presented.     

杭州主城区大气臭氧对空气污染指数API的影响

利用2004年至2007年空气污染监测数据,比较现行API指数和修正后API指数的差异,分析修正后O3污染的变化状况,研究O3污染的季节变化。结果表明,O3作为一种新的空气污染指标,对修正后API指数的影响很大。与现行API指数相比,4年来修正后API指数的污染率大幅度增加,并且各季节的污染率越来越接近,2007年污染率在25%左右。2007年各季节修正后API指数污染天数中O3污染天数所占百分比分别是春季为52%、夏季91.6%、秋季20.8%、冬季O3,未出现污染。     

Evaluation of the temporal scaling variability in forecasting ground-level ozone concentrations obtained from multiple linear regressions

Ozone is a highly unpredictable pollutant which severely affects living conditions in urban and surrounding areas in the Mediterranean basin. This secondary pollutant periodically reaches extremely high concentrations, damaging human health. Multiple linear regression has been widely used in previous works due to the fact that it is a simple and versatile method for forecasting ozone concentrations. However, these models usually prove their validity using fulfillment of statistical constraints, ignoring other intrinsic characteristics existing in the time series, such as the temporal scaling behavior and the data distribution over different time scales. In previous works, it has been demonstrated that observed ozone time series are of a multifractal nature, meaning that the data distribution can be described by using the multifractal spectrum. This work focuses on the capacity of a forecasting model to reproduce the scaling features existing in an observed time series when several chemical and meteorological explanatory variables are introduced following the stepwise procedure. A comparison between the observed spectrum and the simulated ones for each step is used to check which explanatory variables better reproduce the multifractal nature in real ozone time series. It has been confirmed that a model with few explanatory variables allows reproducing the multifractal nature in the simulated time series with an acceptable accuracy without compromising the values of the coefficient of determination and root-mean-squared error, which were used as performance indicators.     

Modelling Tracer Dispersion from Landfills

Several wind tunnel experiments of tracer dispersion from reduced-scale landfill models are presented in this paper. Different experimental set-ups, hot-wire anemometry, particle image velocimetry and tracer concentration measurements were used for the characterisation of flow and dispersion phenomena nearby the models. The main aim of these experiments is to build an extensive experimental data set useful for model validation purposes. To demonstrate the potentiality of the experimental data set, a validation exercise on several mathematical models was performed by means of a statistical technique. The experiments highlighted an increase in pollutant ground level concentrations immediately downwind from the landfill because of induced turbulence and mean flow deflection. This phenomenon turns out to be predominant for the dispersion process. Tests with a different set-up showed an important dependence of the dispersion phenomena from the landfill height and highlighted how complex orographic conditions downwind of the landfill do not affect significantly the dispersion behaviour. Validation exercises were useful for model calibration, improving code reliability, as well as evaluating performances. The Van Ulden model proved to give the most encouraging results.     

Mesoscale trajectory modeling for the Brisbane airshed

The main objective of this research is to identify the possible pollutant transport trajectories from the source to the receptor and to identify the location of areas of high pollution potential for ozone. In order to identify the regions which would most probably be affected by ozone and its precursors, a mesoscale trajectory model is developed and forward air‐parcel trajectories originating from Brisbane city are estimated. Eight trajectories per day, starting at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 hours, are calculated for one complete calendar year. The probability distribution of trajectories shows seasonal and diurnal characteristics and prevailing transport routes of air pollution. Computer‐driven trajectories indicate that air parcels are concentrated in a region between mountainous ranges in the West and islands in the East. This study identifies potential pollutant transport paths and zones of high concentrations that would assist planners in selecting appropriate areas for future industrial and urban development.     

内河涌氨氮污染的特征及其来源的研究

以佛山市雅瑶涌为研究实例,探讨了珠江三角洲河网地区围内河涌氨氮污染的特征,并对氨氮的来源进行了研究。内河涌的氨氮污染逐年严重,并呈现季节性的变化,已成为最主要的污染因子。研究结果表明,畜牧水产业和非点源都是比较显著的氨氮污染源,但未经集中式污水处理厂处理的生活污水,则成为内河涌最重要的氨氮污染源。     

Differences between weekend and weekday ozone levels over rural and urban sites in Southern Italy

Air quality data from a network of 11 monitoring stations in the Apulia region of southern Italy during the summer of 2005 reveal a high frequency of ozone law limit violations. Since ozone is a secondary pollutant, air quality control strategies aimed at reducing ozone concentration are not immediate. Herein, we analyse weekly changes in concentration levels of ozone (O(3)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and evaluate how the differences in primary emissions cause changes in the production of ozone. The comparison between weekend and weekday levels of O(3) and its precursors are direct evidence for the existence of the "ozone weekend effect." This effect was observed at all stations with a considerable variation in the overall ozone magnitude, including both traffic stations and non-traffic stations. Data from VOC measurements at traffic stations primarily indicated elevated levels of benzene, toluene, and xylenes (BTX); all of these substances showed an overall decrease over the weekend. A single station indicated levels of non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) and PM10, both of which did not demonstrate any weekly cycle. Analysis of weekly and diurnal cycles of O(3), NO(x), CO, NMHC, and PM10 indicates that higher weekend ozone levels result from a reduction in the emission of nitrogen oxides on weekends in VOC-sensitive regimes. This indicates that a reduction in VOC and NO(x) levels would be more effective than NO(x) reduction alone. Our results underscore the need for improved and more efficient VOC measurements.     

Performance Assessment of a 3D Hydrodynamic Model Using High Temporal Resolution Measurements in a Shallow Urban Lake

Urban lakes provide many ecosystem services, e.g., flood control, nature protection, coolness island, recreation. Hydrodynamic models will increasingly be used to enhance these benefits. We present the first validation of a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model on a small shallow lake with high resolution and high frequency measurements. Lake Créteil, France (area 0.4 km², mean depth 4.5 m, and catchment area 1 km²) is a former gravel pit and now part of a regional park. The model Delft3D-FLOW was calibrated on a one-month period, with continuous measurements of temperature at five depths at the center of the lake and at three depths at two other stations, and with current speed profiles at the centre of the lake. The model was then verified on 18 1-month periods with similar temperature measurements. The model reproduced very well the temperature dynamics, including the alternation between mixing and stratification periods and internal wave patterns. The mean absolute errors over the five depths at the central point remained below 0.55^°C in spring and summer, the most favorable seasons for phytoplankton growth. Horizontal temperature differences, which rose up to 3^°C at the beginning of stratification periods, were also well reproduced, as well as current speeds. These results are very promising for assessing nutrient and pollutant diffusion, settling and resuspension, as well as for understanding how phytoplankton blooms start in small shallow lakes.     

Monitoring of ozone in selected forest ecosystems in Southern Carpathian and Romanian Intensive Monitoring Network (level II)

In the Romanian forest ecosystems, the first measurements of ambient ozone (O(3)) concentrations started in 1997 in 6 of 26 locations established in a trans-Carpathian Network. Furthermore, three additional ozone and other phytotoxic pollutant (NO(x), SO(2) and NH(3)) monitoring networks were installed in 2000 in Retezat (11 locations) and during 2006-2009 in Bucegi-Piatra Craiului (22 locations) LTER Sites. Since 2007, in four Intensive Forest Monitoring plots (level II), measurements of ozone concentrations were developed. Measurements were made using the Ogawa? passive sampler system during the growing season (April to October). In the Bucegi LTER Site, the seasonal means of 42.5-47.2 ppb in 2006 and 2008 were higher than those determined in the Carpathian Network in the 1997-1999 period (39.0-42.0 ppb), while the 2009 mean of 40.0 ppb was in the range of these values. The O(3) levels were slightly higher than those measured in Retezat LTER Site. In the Intensive Forest Monitoring Network (level II), no significant differences in ozone concentrations between individual core plots were noticed. The seasonal means for each plot range between 36.8 and 49.8 ppb in 2008. An influence of ozone concentrations on crown condition and tree volume growth was not determined.     

Near-surface ozone levels and trends at rural stations in France over the 1995–2003 period

There is a considerable interest in quantifying near-surface ozone concentrations and associated trends, as they serve to define the impacts on ozone of the anthropogenic precursors reductions and to evaluate the effects of emission control strategies. A statistical test has been used to the ozone air concentrations measured in the French rural monitoring network stations, called MERA, in order to bring out spatio-temporal trends in air quality in France over the 1995-2003 period. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test has been developed for detecting and estimating monotonic trends in the time series and applied in our study at annual values: mean, 98th percentile and median based on hourly averaged ozone concentrations and applied to daily maxima. In France, when averaged overall 9 stations between 1995 and 2003, a slight increasing trend of the O(3) levels (+0.6 +/- 1.3% year( - 1)) is observed, which is strongly influenced by the concentrations of the high altitude stations. In stations below 1000 m a mean rate of -0.48% year( - 1) from annual average concentrations, of -0.45% year( - 1) for medians and of +0.56% year( - 1) for P.98 over the 1995-2003 period were obtained. In stations above 1,000 m a mean rate of +1.75% year( - 1) from annual averages values, of +4.05% year( - 1) for medians and of +2.55% year( - 1) for P.98 were calculated over the 1997-2003 period. This situation is comparable to the one observed in other countries. In Europe and in France a reduction of precursor emissions is observed whereas a slight increasing trend of the O(3) levels is observed over the 1995-2003 period. One reason is the non-linearity of chemical ozone production with respect to precursor emissions. Possible explanations are an increase in near-surface ozone values caused by a reduced ozone titration by reduced NO( x ), the meteorological parameters change, an increase in bio-geogenic compound concentrations, the intercontinental transport from North America and Asia and the influence of stratospheric-tropospheric exchanges. These possible explanations must be interpreted carefully as on the short time scales considered.     

Comparison of ozone levels between working days and weekends in Athens,Greece

Athens has a major problem of ozone air pollution due to its climate which is dominated by hot and dry summers with intensesunshine. As a result there is a high violation of the air quality limits of ozone. By comparing ozone air pollution betweenweekdays and weekends it is possible to estimate the effect of the reduction of primary pollutants causing the formation ofozone on the levels of this pollutant. Thus it was estimated thatwhile during the weekends the concentrations of the ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds) werereduced by the order of 10–20%, the effect on ozone levels was lower.     

Statistical modeling of crystalline silica exposure by trade in the construction industry using a database compiled from the literature

A quantitative determinants-of-exposure analysis of respirable crystalline silica (RCS) levels in the construction industry was performed using a database compiled from an extensive literature review. Statistical models were developed to predict work-shift exposure levels by trade. Monte Carlo simulation was used to recreate exposures derived from summarized measurements which were combined with single measurements for analysis. Modeling was performed using Tobit models within a multimodel inference framework, with year, sampling duration, type of environment, project purpose, project type, sampling strategy and use of exposure controls as potential predictors. 1346 RCS measurements were included in the analysis, of which 318 were non-detects and 228 were simulated from summary statistics. The model containing all the variables explained 22% of total variability. Apart from trade, sampling duration, year and strategy were the most influential predictors of RCS levels. The use of exposure controls was associated with an average decrease of 19% in exposure levels compared to none, and increased concentrations were found for industrial, demolition and renovation projects. Predicted geometric means for year 1999 were the highest for drilling rig operators (0.238 mg m(-3)) and tunnel construction workers (0.224 mg m(-3)), while the estimated exceedance fraction of the ACGIH TLV by trade ranged from 47% to 91%. The predicted geometric means in this study indicated important overexposure compared to the TLV. However, the low proportion of variability explained by the models suggests that the construction trade is only a moderate predictor of work-shift exposure levels. The impact of the different tasks performed during a work shift should also be assessed to provide better management and control of RCS exposure levels on construction sites.     

海口市臭氧污染特征

基于2013—2015年海口市4个空气质量自动监测站点数据,结合气象资料,分析了海口市O_3的污染特征。结果表明:海口市O_3总体优良,优良天数比例为99.4%,污染天数均为轻度污染;在良和污染天数中,O_3作为首要污染物的天数占40%,超过其他5项污染物占比。海口市10月O_3浓度最高。O_3月均浓度与温度呈负相关关系,同时与风向有密切关系:5—8月气温较高,以南风为主,O_3浓度较低;1月北风频率较高,易受外来污染传输作用,O_3浓度相对较高。O_3超标日以东北风为主,日变化并未呈现单峰型特征,12:00—22:00时段O_3浓度在10%范围内小幅变化。台风外围型和北方冷高压底部型是造成海口市O_3超标的2类典型天气形势。     

Ozone influence on native vegetation in the Jizerske hory Mts. of the Czech Republic: results based on ozone exposure and ozone-induced visible symptoms

Ozone levels in the Jizerske hory Mts. measured at 13 sites by diffusive samplers during the 2006 and 2007 vegetation seasons are presented. A significant ozone gradient (5.4 ppb in 2006 and 4.0 ppb in 2007) per 100 m difference in altitude between 370 and 1,100 m a.s.l. was recorded. High-resolution maps of phytotoxic potential were developed. The AOT40 threshold (5 ppm h) was exceeded over the entire area with the highest levels exceeding this threshold by 12 times in the upper portions of the mountains. Ozone visible injury was evaluated at four of the monitoring sites on seven native plant and tree species. Four species showed ozone-like symptoms, two of which (Rubus idaeus and Fagus sylvatica) were confirmed as ozone-induced. Our results indicate that ambient ozone is likely to have a much lower impact on the Jizerske hory Mts. vegetation than expected, considering the measured ambient ozone exposures and favourable environmental conditions for ozone uptake.     

合肥市臭氧及其前体物污染特征及源解析

利用合肥市臭氧和VOCs连续观测数据分析了合肥市臭氧及其前体物污染特征,并使用NAQPMS模型研究了合肥市不同季节臭氧来源情况。结果表明:O₃已经成为影响合肥市环境质量的主要污染因子,O₃高值区主要集中在5—6月和9月。合肥市大气VOCs中烷烃含量最丰富,其次是烯烃、芳香烃和炔烃;主要物种为乙烷、丙烷、乙炔、正戊烷、乙烯、环戊烷、异戊烷、正丁烷、异丁烷和甲苯。合肥市O₃生成主要受VOCs控制,其中,烯烃是合肥市O₃生成贡献最大的关键活性组分,乙烯的OFP贡献率居首位。合肥市不同季节O₃来源差异较大,其中,本地排放是主要来源,夏季占比为50%,其余季节占比为30%~45%,O₃存在跨省长距离输送特征,主导风向的变化是造成合肥市臭氧来源季节性变化的重要因素。     

最优化集成方法在城市臭氧数值预报中的应用研究

基于多模式(NAQPMS、CMAQ、CAMx、WRF-Chem)空气质量数值预报业务系统的滚动预报结果,结合站点观测资料,评估了最优化集成方法在城市臭氧数值预报中的可行性和预报效果。一年的评估结果表明:当训练期为15 d时,最优化集成方法能够得到相对较好的结果。总体而言,最优化集成方法对城市臭氧浓度变化趋势和浓度水平的预报效果明显优于单个模式,且在大部分城市优于多模式的最优预报,其预报值和观测的相关系数提高0.11以上,均方根误差降低约10μg/m~3;该方法对城市臭氧污染等级的预报能力也明显优于单个模式,特别是轻、中度污染。此外,在模拟偏差较大的城市,最优化集成方法对预报效果的改进更为显著;在模拟偏差较小的城市,该方法仍可进一步提升预报效果。     

Analysis and assessment of ground-level ozone measured at two stations in Tehran

In this study, variations of ambient ozone level are thoroughly analysed according to the monitored data in a mixed residential, commercial and industrial city, Tehran, based on considering the meteorological factors. Ozone as a pollutant shows typical annual, weekly and diurnal cycles. This analysis has shown that the ozone level concentrations were below the WHO guidelines in Tehran during 2000–2003. The relation between ozone level at two different stations (Aghdasieh and Fatemi) is found (r?=?0.51). The ozone level response to meteorological parameters is investigated. The results suggest that the ozone level is affected (positively or negatively) by meteorological conditions, e.g. relative humidity, solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and wind direction.     

Spatial and temporal variation of surface ozone,NO and NO2 at urban,suburban, rural and industrial sites in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula

Surface ozone is one of the most important photochemical pollutants in the low atmosphere, causing damage to human health, vegetation, materials and climate. The weather (high temperatures and high solar radiation), orography (presence of the Guadalquivir valley) and anthropogenic (the cities of Cádiz, Córdoba, Huelva and Seville and two important industrial complexes) characteristics of the southwestern Iberian Peninsula make this region ideal for the formation and accumulation of ozone. To increase the knowledge of ozone behaviour in this area, the monthly, daily and weekly variations of ozone and its precursors, nitrogen oxides (NO_x?=?NO?+?NO₂), were analysed over a 4-year period (2003 to 2006). Using the k-means cluster technique, 12 representative stations of five different areas with different ozone behaviour were selected from a total of 29 monitoring sites. This is the first time that the analysis of these atmospheric pollutants has been carried out for the whole area, allowing therefore a complete understanding of the dynamics and the relationships of these compounds in this region. The results showed an opposite behaviour among ozone and NO and NO₂ concentrations in urban and suburban zones, marked by maximums of ozone (minimums NO_x) in spring and summer and minimums (maximums) in autumn and winter. A seasonal behaviour, with lower amplitude, was also observed in rural and industrial areas for ozone concentrations, with the NO and NO₂ concentrations remaining at low and similar values during the year in rural zones due to the absence of emission sources in their surroundings. The daily cycles of ozone in urban, suburban and industrial sites registered a maximum value in the early afternoon (14:00–17:00 UTC) while for NO_x two peaks were observed, at 7:00–10:00 UTC and 20:00–22:00. In the case of rural stations, no hourly peak of ozone or NO_x was registered. The weekend effect was studied by using a statistical contrast tests (Student’s t). The results indicated that only areas influenced by important traffic emissions presented a weekend effect for NO and NO₂, whereas an ozone weekend effect was not detected in any case.     

Simulation and Evaluation of Control Strategies for Ozone Reduction in a Complex Terrain in Southwestern Spain

During the central months of the year, southwestern Spain is under strong insolation and weak synoptic forcing, promoting the development of sea breezes and mountain-induced winds and creating recirculations of pollutants. The complex topography of the Southwestern Iberia Peninsula induces the formation of vertical layers, into which the pollutants are injected and subjected to long-distance transport and compensatory subsidence. The characteristics of these highly complex flows have important effects on the pollutant dispersion. Air pollution studies in very complex terrains require high-resolution modelling for resolving the flow dynamics. This paper shows the results obtained from using the MM5-CAMx multiscale-nested air quality model to relate the sensitivity regimes for ozone, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in an area of high geographical complexity. The article assesses the impact on the hourly and eight-hourly maximum daily ozone concentrations of four reduction strategies during two ozone pollution episodes. This analysis of the ozone response has led to a preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness of the most common control strategies: traffic, industry, mixed traffic and industry, and closure of some of the largest industries (oil and petrochemical refineries). Photochemical indicators show that ozone chemistry in southwestern Spain is strongly sensitive to NO _x . However, volatile organic compound-sensitive points are found in areas with anthropogenic influence (highways, cities and industrial parks). Our results indicate that reductions in road traffic lead to ozone reductions over large areas, whereas reductions in industrial emissions, despite sometimes showing greater decreases in the maximum hourly and eight-hourly ground-level ozone levels, lead to ozone reductions in a local area only. In the control study case, with the oil refinery and the petrochemical plants closed, decreases in ozone hourly concentrations are up to 40% higher than in the other emission control scenarios studied. This analysis provides an assessment of the effectiveness of different policies for controlling precursor emissions by comparing the modelled results for different scenarios.