Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Social capital and food security in post-conflict rural Lira District,northern Uganda

While a strong relationship has been established between social capital and food security in the research literature, it is uncertain whether this holds in post-conflict situations. This study examines associations between social capital and food security in post-conflict Lira District, northern Uganda. Since factors affecting food security are complex, we explored the roles of households' characteristics in food security outcomes. Data were collected from March to July 2011 through face-to-face interviews with 221 heads of household in rural Lira. Using multinomial logistic regression, a strong positive association was identified between social capital and household food security. The study also found significant associations of food security with sex, education of household head, amount of cultivated land, and farm and home possessions. The results of this analysis can aid the design of food security programmes that empower poor people while targeting the most vulnerable groups, thereby promoting sustainable development in post-conflict communities.     

水旱灾害对我国农业及社会经济发展的影响

水旱灾害首先影响到我国农业生产。粮食产量的大幅减产还会波及到整个国民经济及人民生活水平的下降。研究自然灾害不仅要注意因灾损失的自然因素，同时要联系造成灾害的社会、经济、人文因素等诸多方面进行自与非自然因素的综合分析。     

Livelihoods,precarity, and disaster vulnerability: Nicaragua and Hurricane Mitch

How livelihoods determine vulnerability to disasters is a recent topic of inquiry. Few quantitative works have been produced to date. The empirical analysis that follows draws on household‐level data available for Nicaragua, preceding and following Hurricane Mitch, a devastating Category 5 storm that made landfall in Central America in October 1998, to examine differentials in disaster recovery outcomes vis‐à‐vis household livelihood profiles. Livelihoods are distinguished according to economic sector along with ownership of productive means, a central mechanism of vulnerability under sociological labour frameworks. The findings indicate uneven recovery outcomes in relation to livelihoods. During the year immediately following the event, agricultural wage earners and agricultural owner‐producers experienced marked losses owing to the disaster, whereas business owners saw an improvement in condition. Analysis of long‐term recovery reveals that households reliant on agricultural wage employment exhibit lagged recovery relative to other livelihood profiles. The findings are discussed with respect to the dynamic pressures posed by contemporary developmental processes.     

Sub-regional integration in Sudan: the key to food security and recovery

The signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan has created a new opportunity for peace. Approaches to food security must now be reoriented based on the agro-ecological diversity in Sudan. WFP is in a unique position to catalyse an approach to food security that meets immediate needs and contributes to long-term recovery, in collaboration with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Government of South Sudan (GOSS). Aggregate food production in Sudan has increased in the past decade. At sub-regional levels, however, many areas remain food insecure. Major research must be undertaken to identify optimum levels of food production and barriers to access to food at sub-regional levels as a first step towards linking deficit areas with areas of surplus. Initiatives must also be undertaken to facilitate increased integration between sub-regions. Increased sub-regional linkages could ensure more efficient delivery of food in the short term as well as recovery and economic growth in the long term.     

The social context of childcare practices and child malnutrition in Niger's recent food crisis

In 2004–05, Niger suffered a food crisis during which global attention focused on high levels of acute malnutrition among children. In response, decentralised emergency nutrition programmes were introduced into much of southern Niger. Child malnutrition, however, is a chronic problem and its links with food production and household food security are complex. This qualitative, anthropological study investigates pathways by which children are rendered vulnerable in the context of a nutritional 'emergency'. It focuses on household-level decisions that determine resource allocation and childcare practices in order to explain why practices apparently detrimental to children's health persist. Risk aversion, the need to maintain self-identity and status, and constrained decision making result in a failure to invest extra necessary resources ingrowth-faltering children. Understanding and responding to the social context of child malnutrition will help humanitarian workers to integrate their efforts more effectively with longer-term development programmes aimed at improving livelihood security.     

Coping strategies developed as a result of social structure and conflict: Kosovo in the 1990s

The end of 1989 brought with it political and economic decisions which resulted in Kosovo being stripped of its autonomy and the Albanian population being expelled from their jobs. These facts combined with ethnic tensions created a decade of conflict and oppression affecting hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. Thousands of Kosovars moved overseas to seek work to support families at home, altering the way of life of the population of Kosovo irredeemably. The loss of income had serious repercussions on food security throughout the 1990s; possibilities of purchasing food were diminished, control on goods in 1998 reduced availability of foodstuffs, conflict affected accessibility to markets and shops and consequently food intake and nutritional status was compromised. The most vulnerable were those who had no family members overseas. Mass displacement of population due to ethnic cleansing during the war of spring 1999, further jeopardised food security status. Destruction at this time rendered large parts of Kosovo useless and resulted in a shift in the determinant of vulnerability in the post-war period: destruction of houses, land, livestock and agricultural products as well as loss of family members, became a far more pertinent indicator of food insecurity. The strong and clear links between conflict, socio-economic issues and food security are highlighted and discussed in this paper.     

土地利用变化对农业自然灾害灾情的影响机理(二)──基于家户调查、实地考察与测量、空间定位系统的分析

作者在文献［1］中讨论了作物种植结构的调整对农业自然灾害（主要是旱灾）的影响机理。本文在对湖南省洞庭湖区常德市鼎城区的实地调查基础上，应用全球定位系统技术（GPS），深入分析了土地利用变化（空间格局与经济密度）对水灾引起的农业灾害的影响机制．结果表明，家户年纯收入水平与水田面积占总土地面积的比例是决定农业水灾的主要因素．     

Household adjustment to flood risk: a survey of coastal residents in Texas and Florida,United States

Individual households have increasingly borne responsibility for reducing the adverse impacts of flooding on their property. Little observational research has been conducted, however, at the household level to examine the major factors contributing to the selection of a particular household adjustment. This study addresses the issue by evaluating statistically the factors influencing the adoption of various household flood hazard adjustments. The results indicate that respondents with higher‐value homes or longer housing tenure are more likely to adopt structural and expensive techniques. In addition, the information source and the Community Rating System (CRS) score for the jurisdiction where the household is located have a significant bearing on household adjustment. In contrast, proximity to risk zones and risk perception yield somewhat mixed results or behave counter to assumptions in the literature. The study findings provide insights that will be of value to governments and decision‐makers interested in encouraging homeowners to take protective action given increasing flood risk.     

家户土地对洪涝灾害的经济响应研究湖南省洞庭湖区案例分析

通过对湖南省洞庭湖区家户经济与洪涝灾害关系展开的野外调查,和从行政门部与保险公司 获得的有关社会经济统计资料、案例资料,进行了衣户经济行为与土地经济行为的分析。结果表 明,家户对洪涝灾害的抵御能力主要受其经济能力的制约,土地一方面受到来自增加家户收入的压 力,另一方面受到来自必须给水以一定空间的压力,所以在尽量满足给水以一定空间的基础上,努 力提高单位土地的产出率,从而提高家户的经济收入,对这一湖区的农民家庭经济与洪涝灾害问题 的解决具有重要意义。     

The Impact of a Reduced and Uncertain Food Supply in Three Besieged Cities of Bosnia-Hercegovina

Nutritional status and household food security were longitudinally monitored in three besieged cities of Bosnia-Hercegovina (Sarajevo, Zenica and Tuzla) during the winter and spring of 1993 to 1994. The objectives were to provide early warning of a deterioration in the food and nutrition situation and identify particularly vulnerable groups so that action could be taken to prevent potential undernutrition and target resources to the most needy. Before the cease-fire, which came into effect at the end of February 1994, trends in various indicators (weight loss, decline of household food stocks, rising food prices, reduction in food aid distribution, sale of possessions) suggested that the situation was deteriorating. Access to food improved as a result of the cease-fire, however, which was reflected in improvements in indicators of food security and weight gain. The impact of, and response to, the food emergency differed between individuals, households and locations; the elderly were found to be more nutritionally vulnerable than children or adults, households with the least access to resources were the most food insecure, while the city of Zenica appeared to be particularly hard hit. The findings show the effects of an uncertain and reduced food supply on a previously well-fed healthy population in an industrialised country. The value and constraints of an Early Warning System set up to monitor trends in an emergency in a European context are discussed.     

Livelihoods,power, and food insecurity: adaptation of social capital portfolios in protracted crises—case study Burundi

The failure of food security and livelihood interventions to adapt to conflict settings remains a key challenge in humanitarian responses to protracted crises. This paper proposes a social capital analysis to address this policy gap, adding a political economy dimension on food security and conflict to the actor‐based livelihood framework. A case study of three hillsides in north Burundi provides an ethnographic basis for this hypothesis. While relying on a theoretical framework in which different combinations of social capital (bonding, bridging, and linking) account for a diverse range of outcomes, the findings offer empirical insights into how social capital portfolios adapt to a protracted crisis. It is argued that these social capital adaptations have the effect of changing livelihood policies, institutions, and processes (PIPs), and clarify the impact of the distribution of power and powerlessness on food security issues. In addition, they represent a solid way of integrating political economy concerns into the livelihood framework.     

Pastoral and environmental security in East Africa

The most vulnerable people in Third World countries are often accused of destroying forests and fragile ecosystems and of practising destructive forms of agriculture and animal husbandry. The key to environmental sustainability, however, lies in more reliable production and food security at the local level. This article focuses on individual and household security amongst dryland herders in East Africa. The most crucial aspect of pastoral viability is the maintenance of a balance between family herd and size of household. Risk-spreading, through dependence on relatives, the borrowing of animals, redistribution through marriage etc. is a general principle of social behaviour amongst these peoples. Consideration of local-level security, furthermore, reveals the connection between ecological stress and political conflict. Only by establishing secure access to food for individuals and families can sustainable development and political security, not only at the local but also at the national and international levels, be achieved.     

甘肃省农业生产风险因素分析

农业生产风险主要受耕地生产潜力、播种面积、抵御自然灾害的能力及政策保障能力等因素的影响。根据甘肃省粮食产量统计资料，在甘肃省粮食综合生产能力评价研究的基础上，讨论了各类风险因素对粮食生产和粮食安全的影响，提出加强农田水利建设，提高抵御自然灾害风险的能力应是提高全省粮食综合生产能力的重要策略。     

清代闽台地区自然灾害及其救治办法研究

清朝,闽台已经成为自然灾害的多发地区,常见的灾害有洪水、干旱、台风、地震与瘟疫等.对福建危害最大的是水灾,对台湾危害最大的则是风灾.两岸人民为抗击自然灾害而共同努力,清地方政府采取多项救灾措施如蠲免、赈粮、捐赀及赋予台湾官员独断财权以应付突发灾情等,并取得了一定成效.     

Rehabilitation: strategic, proactive, flexible, risky?

Rehabilitation after armed conflict is a direct intellectual descendant of thinking about rehabilitation after natural calamity. It is related, generally, to poverty reduction and, operationally, to associated action at the micro level. This history has limited its strategic conceptualisation and, in particular, its links with reconciliation and state re-legitimation and also with macro-economic stabilisation and renewed growth. In post-war--or more generally, a lull in conflict with the potential to become permanent--a country's rapid, focused, prioritised action within a strategic framework is urgent. It is not risk-free for political and natural disasters as well as for those with economic and social bases. Flexibility, learning from initial experience and asking intended household beneficiaries about their needs in advance can reduce risk as can pre-positioning of contingency or standby resources to avert post-war calamities (for example, drought, flood) and catastrophes (renewed violence) from delaying and discrediting rehabilitation efforts.     

珠江三角洲腹地洪水位异常变化及成因分析

珠江三角洲是我国东南沿海的经济发达地区.三角洲地区的防洪安全保障对区域的社会、经济发展具有举足轻重的作用.由于三角洲地区复杂的网河及口门构成,以及径流和潮汐共同影响的水动力条件,使三角洲的洪水水势表现出随时间和空间复杂变化的动态特征.20世纪80年代以来,三角洲地区受水土资源无序开发的人类活动的影响,90年代的洪水表现出了网河腹地河段洪水位异常壅高的现象,使区域的防洪安全受到严重威胁.结合"94.6","98.6"洪水期间三角洲腹地洪水水位异常壅高现象,综合分析了区域洪水位异常壅高的外部及内在成因,为科学制订三角洲地区防洪对策提供技术依据.     

基于农户尺度的农业旱灾成灾风险评价与可持续发展

在对雨养和灌溉农业典型区农户问卷调查的基础上,提出了成灾风险的概念和评价思路,构建了农户尺度农业旱灾成灾风险的评价指标体系和模型;基于国家农村调查队的统计数据,对典型区农业旱灾成灾风险进行了评价,确定了人均纯收入2500和2750元,以及人均粮食产量200和800kg为几个影响农业旱灾成灾风险变化的临界值.最后,提出了雨养/灌溉农业典型区降低成灾风险的可持续发展策略,如波动的农牧业政策、提高自然降水利用率等.     

Food Crises, Crisis Response and Emergency Preparedness: The Sudan Case

Food security problems should be seen as "normal" in and endemic to subsistence agricultural groups in semi-arid zones of developing countries. Natural, popular response mechanisms exist that address these problems when they are at "normal" levels. All response mechanisms in developing countries can be expected to be swamped in times of a major food emergency. During major crises international relief assistance will continue to play a crucial role. Attempts at imposing centralized, institutional social security systems that address the normal "pockets of need" syndrome will be extremely expensive, not self-sustaining, and prone to failure. In that these efforts may undermine natural response mechanisms and draw scarce resources away from more logical, decentralized relief agencies these efforts may prove dangerously counter-productive.