国内外原油价格相互作用机制及其对策研究

针对我国石油能源对外依存度急剧上升,国际油价波动风险对我国经济影响不断提高的实际情况,以2000年1月-2007年8月间国际原油价格与国内原油价格为基础数据库,采用因果检验、协整检验、向量误差修正模型和方差分解等方法,对国内外原油价格的相互作用机制做了深入研究,并对油价波动风险防范措施做了初步探讨.研究表明,国际和国内油价之间具有较为明显的协整关系;国际原油价格是国内原油价格长、短期变化的原因,但这种影响随着时间的推移而逐渐减弱.我国应通过建立完善的国内油品市场机制和风险防范机制,提高在国际油价的话语权,降低油价波动对我国经济的影响.     

基于复杂网络理论的原油贸易空间格局差异分析

本文采用复杂网络分析方法,结合区域分析与相似性分析,比较了十大进口国(地区)原油贸易空间结构差异.复杂网络分析旨在以入度、权重及结构熵勾勒出十大原油进口国(地区)石油贸易的拓扑结构差异,并在拓扑结构分析中结合区域分析以揭示十大贸易国(地区)原油进口贸易空间格局构成之不同;相似性分析则是在拓扑结构和空间结构研究基础上,进一步量化了十大进口国(地区)的空间结构差异程度及区位在进口国(地区)原油贸易空间格局形成中的作用.研究表明,主要进口国与地区的原油进口贸易空间结构存在显著差异.而地理区位差异越大的国家与地区间,贸易空间结构差异越大.除中国外,各原油进口大国与地区更倾向于选择较经济的进口地域;显著的多元化与均质化则导致了中国贸易空间格局的不经济.研究结果提示我们,多元化不应以过多牺牲经济性为前提,中国应权衡所面临的客观环境选择适合区域合作伙伴,才能更好的落实多元化进口策略,切实解决可能面临的石油安全问题.     

Contamination of Austrian soil with caesium-137

Austria ranks among the countries that have been most strongly affected by the Chernobyl fallout. The mean contamination with 137Cs is 21.0 kBq/m2, of which 18.7 kBq/m2 is due to the Chernobyl accident, whereas global fallout contributes 2.3 kBq/m2. Maximum values of total 137Cs contamination are nearly 200 kBq/m2. Total deposition of Chernobyl 137Cs on Austrian territory is 1.6 PBq or a fraction of around 2% of the 137Cs released from the reactor. 2115 measurements were used to draw the Austrian "caesium map". The geographical pattern of fallout distribution shows regional differences of contamination as high as 1:100.     

我国城市土壤重金属污染及其治理研究进展综述

本文从城市土壤中重金属元素的污染来源、污染危害、污染空间特征、污染评价方法和治理方法等方面来对我国城市土壤重金属污染问题的研究进展进行综述,并提出了相关的治理对策建议。     

跨国界污染案例对处理松花江污染事件的启示

跨国界污染事件的处理或赔偿涉及国家责任、赔偿范围和赔偿主体等问题。本文介绍了与环境保护相关的国际法和国际公约的法律，并对影响较大的几起跨境污染案例作了分析，就处理此次松花江事故污染事件以及跨国污染赔偿等提出相关建议。     

Comparative Analysis of Microbial Communities of Contrasting Soil Types in Different Plant Communities

Microbiomes were analyzed in samples of the major soil types of Russia and Western Kazakhstan region from different plant communities (fallow, forest, agrophytocenosis). The representatives of 42 bacterial and 2 archaeal phyla were identified in the samples, among which the dominant positions were occupied by representatives of ten phyla: nine bacterial (Actinobacteria (33.5%), Proteobacteria (28.4%), Acidobacteria (8.3%), Verrucomicrobia (7.7%), Bacteroidetes (4.2%), Chloroflexi (3.0%), Gemmatimonadetes (2.3%), Firmicutes (2.1%), Planctomycetes (2.0%)) and one archaeal Crenarchaeota (2.6%). Data analysis by the methods of multivariate statistics suggests that the taxonomic structure of microbiota is formed under the action of two main factors: the strongest factor is soil acidity, which determines the dynamics of the microbiome at the level of major taxa such as phylum, and the weaker factor is the type of vegetation, which determines the community structure at lower taxonomic level (order, family, genus). Detailed analysis of the samples of podzolic soil in Leningrad Region made it possible to identify bacterial taxa specifically associated both with the type of biome (fallow, forest, agrophytocenosis) and with the specific plant community (specific composition of plant synusia).     

The toxicity of copper contaminated soil using a gnotobiotic Soil Multi-species Test System (SMS)

A gnotobiotic multi-species study was designed to consist of a food-web of soil-dwelling animals. The food-web was exposed to five concentrations copper (Cu) spiked soil for three exposure durations i.e. 28, 56 and 84 days. Based on multivariate analysis the food-web was significantly affected by Cu exposure at and above 300 mg Cu kg(-1) soil (lowest tested concentration). The number of animals present in the 2500 mg Cu kg(-1) (highest tested concentration) was at all sampling occasions below the starting point level. Based on analysis of the individual species the lowest 10% effect concentration (EC10) observed was 50 mg Cu kg(-1) soil, for Enchytraeus crypticus. Using the EC10 for the individual species the HC5 (Hazard Concentration at the 5% level) was estimated to be between 25 and 36 mg Cu kg(-1) soil, depending on the exposure duration. A similar experiment but using a reduced design was performed employing soil contaminated with Cu in the field more than 80 years ago. The trend in the field-contaminated soil was similar to that observed for the spiked soil.     

抚河流域径流对土地利用变化时空响应

为了揭示近十几年抚河流域径流对土地利用变化时空响应过程,通过2003、2010和2017年三期遥感影像图进行监督分类得到土地利用图,基于SWAT模型,定量分析和研究土地利用变化对径流的影响.结果 表明:(1)2003～2010年和2010～2017年土地利用变化规律一致,林地和城镇用地面积不断增加,其余类型则呈现减少的趋势;(2) SWAT模型在抚河流域径流模拟中适用性好,李家渡水文站率定期和验证期结果R2和ENS均大于0.85,沙子岭水文站除了验证期ENS为0.77外,R2和ENS均大于0.80,两处站点相对误差| Re|均小于20％;(3)在气象数据同为2010～2016年及其他阈值设置相同的条件下,仅改变输入的土地利用图,发现林地面积的增加,耕地和草地面积的减小导致了2010年比2003年的多年平均月径流量降低0.65 m3/s,2017年的多年平均月径流量较2010年相比降低0.41 m3/s,后段时期的差异与前者相比较小与林地的增长减缓和城镇用地快速增长有关;(4)在第一阶段2003～2010年和第二阶段2010～2017年,流域内大部分地区径流系数都处于降低状态,林地和草地面积的增加对径流系数有降低的效果,而径流系数升高一般是因为耕地、城镇用地面积增加或者林地面积减少导致的.     

Responses of food production systems to climate change:sensitivity and vulnerability

Climate warming has prolonged the optimization of crop-growing seasons,shortened actual growth periods,and changed crop-planting boundaries.It also has boosted crop yields in certain regions while compromising crop quality and affected the occurrence of meteorological disasters and pest diseases damage,which has resulted in reduction in grain yield.Crop production systems will evidence more sensitivity to climate change in future;for example,with an increase of 1°C in temperature,the average growth period will be shortened by 17 days for winter wheat and 7-8 days for maize and rice.Of course regional differences will exist.Climate change will threaten crop yield stability and affect crop quality.Vulnerability will be addressed in regard to extreme climatic events,which include reducing exposure and improving adaptive capacity,because the exposure of rain-fed agriculture is greater than that of irrigated agriculture.Therefore,we propose three suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of crop production systems to climate change.First,strengthen the evaluation capacity construction of sensitivity,which includes(1)refining and improving all types of evaluation indicator systems and models;(2)innovating and developing evaluation methods and tools;and(3)combining field observation and case studies,so that(1)the impact of climate change and sensitivity can be assessed scientifically;(2)uncertainty in the study can be identified and reduced;and(3)improved understanding of climate systems and their changes,climate change impact,and sensitivity will be achieved.Second,strengthen adaptive capacity construction for crop production systems,which includes(1)rebuilding existing farmland infrastructure to improve meteorological disaster defences;(2)adjusting agriculture structure and adopting new crop varieties with enhanced resistance;(3)popularizing water-saving technology and dry farming technology;and(4)further researching interdisciplinary theories and methods.Third,strengthen function construction for natural and social s     

江西省城市化进程中资源消耗特征及响应分析

选取能源消费总量、总用水量和城市建成区面积作为江西省资源消耗的指示性指标，在对其城市化进程中资源消耗特征分析的基础上，采用计量经济学的方法。对城市化作用的资源消耗响应情景进行了模拟。研究显示：①随着城市化进程的推进，江西省资源消耗特征表现并不一致。其人均能源消耗、人均建成区面积扩张有着与全国类似的逐步增长的态势，但其人均值都低于全国人均水平；而人均用水量则与全国一样呈现下降趋势，但江西省人均用水量一直都高于全国平均水平。②格兰杰因果分析发现，江西省城市化水平变化是人均能源消费增长和人均建成区面积扩张的格兰杰因果原因，人均建成区面积扩张也是城市化水平提高的格兰杰因果原因；而城市化水平变化与人均用水量下降互不为格兰杰因果原因。进一步的脉冲响应函数模拟表明：在江西省城市化进程中，城市化水平的提高对人均能源消费具有正的冲击效果；而人均建成区面积扩张对城市化具有先正后负的响应情景。     

能量比值法构建与实证检验——关于农业资源利用效率测算方法的一个改进

农业自然资源利用效率的测算与比较方法较多,如比值分析法、生产函数法、包络分析法、能量效率评价方法、因子-能量评价方法、能值评价方法和指标体系评价方法等.其中,比值分析法因其操作性强、计算简单而被研究者广泛应用.但是,比值分析法存在的一些缺陷使该方法测算的结果受到猜疑.为此,本文试图把能量引入到农业资源利用效率中来,采用能量比值法代替传统的比值方法测算农业资源利用效率,并以土地为例,对该方法进行实证比较检验.传统比值法相对能量比值法而言,对于农业资源利用效率评估过于偏大或偏小,利用能量比值法更能够比较农业资源在不同地区、时间段和不同品种之间的利用效率,可为调整农业结构提供参考依据.     

白云岩地区土壤呼吸日变化及其与土壤温湿度的响应关系

为揭示贵州绥阳双河洞国家地质公园白云岩地区表层土壤呼吸作用昼夜变化特征及其影响因素.研究利用土壤呼吸测量系统(SRS-SD2000,ADC,UK),在无降水影响下监测了双河洞国家地质公园岩溶地区灌木林地、竹林、旱地和人工草地4种不同土地利用方式的表层土壤呼吸通量昼夜变化特征,结合土壤温湿度和大气温湿度等环境参数,探究影响土壤呼吸昼夜变化的关键因素.结果 表明:4种不同土地利用方式土壤呼吸速率变化均呈"昼高夜低"的单峰型变化规律,日变化最大值出现在12:00～14:00之间,最低值出现在5:00～7:00之间;各样地土壤呼吸速率和土壤温度均呈现显著的正相关关系(P＜0.001),灌木林地、竹林和旱地土壤呼吸速率与土壤湿度有显著负相关关系(P＜0.001),人工草地土壤呼吸与土壤湿度之间有低度相关性(P＜0.05);气温是影响土壤呼吸速率变化的关键因子,实测数据表明土壤呼吸在达到峰值后不会随着气温的升高而增大;不同样地类型的土壤呼吸速率对土壤温度和湿度的昼夜响应特征存在差异.     

Ecophysiological Responses of Larix sibiricaLedeb. and Pinus sibiricaDu Tour Undergrowth to Climate Change

The effects of probable climate change—an increase in atmospheric CO₂(by two times), air temperature, precipitation—on CO₂exchange and temperature dependence of net photosynthesis in the larch and Siberian stone pine undergrowth formed in the light larch forests of West Siberia were studied in chambers with an artificial climate. The change of the aforementioned ecological factors caused an increase in the temperature optima of photosynthesis and the range of optimum temperatures (in the case of Siberian stone pine, to a slightly greater degree). Therefore, the ranges of both species may broaden, and the Siberian stone pine can expand to the north, displacing larch tree stands.     

Responses of small mammal community to environmental pollution by emissions from a copper smelter

Analysis of the effect of emissions from the Karabash Copper Smelter (Southern Urals) on the small mammal community has shown that its abundance and structure change significantly under technogenic impact. Structural transformations are accompanied by changes in the composition of dominant species. The “dose-effect“ pattern of community response to this impact is nonlinear: for most species of murine rodents and small insectivores, habitat quality becomes satisfactory at a distance of 9–11 km from the emission plume.     

Contamination of the southern Baltic Sea with 137Cs and 90Sr over the period 2000-2004

Changes of the (137)Cs activity concentrations in the southern Baltic Sea waters were investigated over the period 2000-2004 and distribution of the (90)Sr concentrations was determined in 2004. In the discriminated period further decrease of (137)Cs concentrations was observed. The average activity concentration of (137)Cs declined from 59.4Bq/m(3) in 2000 to 45.1Bq/m(3) in 2004. The greatest changes of (137)Cs activities occurred in 2003 as a consequence of the medium-size inflow of a saline waters from the North Sea. This inflow affected (137)Cs activities as well as its distribution in the Baltic Sea. Changes in (90)Sr activity concentrations proceeded at much slower rate. The average activity concentration of (90)Sr was equal to 8.7Bq/m(3) in 2004. The annual fluvial (137)Cs fluxes from the Vistula river were also estimated. In 2000, the (137)Cs load from Vistula was of an order of 0.15TBq/year, and in 2004 0.05TBq/year.     

An Experimental Test of the Concealment Hypothesis Using Oriental Skylark (Alauda gulgula) nests on the Tibet Plateau

Russian Journal of Ecology -     

Responses of leaf-eating insects feeding on aspen to emissions from the Middle Ural copper smelter

Foliar damage to aspen from leaf-chewing insects and miners has been assessed during a 4-year period in the environs of a large copper smelter in the Middle Urals. It has been shown that the total area removed, proportion of damaged leaves, and average area removed per damaged leaf are considerably smaller near the smelter than in the background zone. The degree of the effect is similar for all three parameters and remains stable with time. Both groups of leaf pests display lower trophic activity in the impact zone, but the effect of pollution on leaf-chewing insects is greater than on miners, while individual features of the tree and its environment affect miners more strongly than leaf-chewing insects.     

基于BP神经网络的油气储量价值等级划分

在广泛选取原始指标的基础上,从可采储量、油气价格、开发投资、经营成本4个方面,构建了基于主成分分析法的油气储量价值等级划分指标体系,建立了基于BP神经网络的油气储量价值等级划分模型,并对胜利油田的数据进行实证分析。本文的创新及特色一是通过用7个主成分保留了95%的原始信息建立指标体系,避免了指标间相关性对后期评价的影响,提高了后期评价的准确性。二是通过设置初始权重、学习率、动态系数等参数使基于BP神经网络的油气储量价值等级划分模型的精度高达96.61%,避免了传统评价中模糊随机因素和人为主观因素的影响,提高了评价的准确性和科学性。结果表明,采收率、储量丰度、储量规模、储层埋深、凝固点等5个指标是影响油气储量价值等级的关键因素。储量价值越高,采收率越大、储量规模越大、储量丰度越大、储层埋深越小、凝固点越低。