Predicting and Mapping Potential Whooping Crane Stopover Habitat to Guide Site Selection for Wind Energy Projects

Migratory stopover habitats are often not part of planning for conservation or new development projects. We identified potential stopover habitats within an avian migratory flyway and demonstrated how this information can guide the site‐selection process for new development. We used the random forests modeling approach to map the distribution of predicted stopover habitat for the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), an endangered species whose migratory flyway overlaps with an area where wind energy development is expected to become increasingly important. We then used this information to identify areas for potential wind power development in a U.S. state within the flyway (Nebraska) that minimize conflicts between Whooping Crane stopover habitat and the development of clean, renewable energy sources. Up to 54% of our study area was predicted to be unsuitable as Whooping Crane stopover habitat and could be considered relatively low risk for conflicts between Whooping Cranes and wind energy development. We suggest that this type of analysis be incorporated into the habitat conservation planning process in areas where incidental take permits are being considered for Whooping Cranes or other species of concern. Field surveys should always be conducted prior to construction to verify model predictions and understand baseline conditions. Predicción y Mapeo del Hábitat Potencial de Descanso de la Grulla Americana para Guiar la Selección de Sitios para Proyectos de Energía Eólica.     

Moisture as a determinant of habitat quality for a nonbreeding neotropical migratory songbird

Identifying the determinants of habitat quality for a species is essential for understanding how populations are limited and regulated. Spatiotemporal variation in moisture and its influence on food availability may drive patterns of habitat occupancy and demographic outcomes. Nonbreeding migratory birds in the neotropics occupy a range of habitat types that vary with respect to moisture. Using carbon isotopes and a satellite-derived measure of habitat moisture, we identified a moisture gradient across home ranges of radio-tracked Northern Waterthrush (Seiurus noveboracensis). We used this gradient to classify habitat types and to examine whether habitat moisture correlates with overwinter mass change and spring departure schedules of Northern Waterthrush over the late-winter dry season in the tropics. The two independent indicators of moisture revealed similar gradients that were directly proportional to body mass change as the dry season progressed. Birds occupying drier habitats declined in body mass over the study period, while those occupying wetter habitats increased in body mass. Regardless of habitat, birds lost an average of 7.6% of their mass at night, and mass recovery during the day trended lower in dry compared with wet habitats. This suggests that daily incremental shortfalls in mass recovery can lead to considerable season-long declines in body mass. These patterns resulted in consequences for the premigratory period, with birds occupying drier habitats having a delayed rate of fat deposition compared with those in wet habitats. Taken together with the finding that males, which are significantly larger than females, are also in better condition than females regardless of habitat suggests that high-quality habitats may be limited and that there may be competition for them. The habitat-linked variation in performance we observed suggests that habitat limitation could impact individual and population-level processes both during and in subsequent periods of the annual cycle. The linkage between moisture and habitat quality for a migratory bird indicates that the availability of high-quality habitats is dynamic due to variation in precipitation among seasons and years. Understanding this link is critical for ascertaining the impact of future climate change, particularly in the Caribbean basin, where a much drier future is predicted.     

The good and the bad stopover: behaviours of migrant reed warblers at two contrasting sites

Successful migration for passerine birds depends largely on the quality of stopover habitats, but we still lack complete knowledge of how migrants search for habitats en route and how they behave when landing at poor quality stopover sites. We compared the distance of exploratory movements and stopover durations of the reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus, a reedbed habitat specialist, released at suitable (reed bed) and unsuitable (sand dune) stopover sites. Birds tape-lured during nocturnal migration to a sand dune were captured, radio-tagged, released and tracked at two sites of contrasting habitat quality. Lean birds were found to move further in the dunes (max. 300 m) than in reeds (max. 200 m), whereas ‘fat’ individuals at both sites remained stationary. Birds spent just 1 day in the dunes and up to 13 days in the reeds. Our results suggest that some nocturnal migrants with restricted diurnal exploratory movements depend on stopover site selection when ceasing nocturnal flight.     

Habitat loss through disruption of constrained dispersal networks.

Large losses of habitat could be caused by land use change that disrupts the dispersal networks used by migratory species. We assessed the relative losses of habitat for diadromous fish (i.e., those migrating between sea and freshwater) due to physical barriers, degradation of migratory passage associated with catchment land use, and site-scale land use characteristics on the West Coast, South Island, New Zealand. Fish occurrence, land use data, and river network models were analyzed in a GIS and subjected to a three-level hierarchical analysis. To identify accessible habitat not restricted by physical barriers, we used the migratory distance and maximum downstream slope encountered to identify accessible sites in least-impacted catchments and applied the results to all catchments within the study area. For two fish species, banded kokopu (Galaxias fasciatus) and koaro (G. brevipinnis), sites modeled as accessible using logistic regression in least-impacted catchments were then used to assess the impacts of catchment-scale deforestation and downstream land uses on habitat loss. Finally, sites not restricted by physical barriers or land-use-related impacts on migratory passage were used to model the effects of local land use. The models indicated that koaro and banded kokopu potentially had access to 28,000 km and 5300 km, respectively, of the 40,600 km of streams within the study area. Impacts due to intensive agricultural land use downstream in catchments affecting migratory passage were predicted to reduce the accessible habitats for koaro and banded kokopu by 55% and 70%, respectively. Local land use further reduced koaro and banded kokopu habitats to 70% and 90%, respectively, of total accessible habitat. Habitat lost through disruption of the dispersal network was disproportionately large because potentially useable habitat was rendered inaccessible.     

A network approach to prioritize conservation efforts for migratory birds

Habitat loss can trigger migration network collapse by isolating migratory bird breeding grounds from nonbreeding grounds. Theoretically, habitat loss can have vastly different impacts depending on the site's importance within the migratory corridor. However, migration-network connectivity and the impacts of site loss are not completely understood. We used GPS tracking data on 4 bird species in the Asian flyways to construct migration networks and proposed a framework for assessing network connectivity for migratory species. We used a node-removal process to identify stopover sites with the highest impact on connectivity. In general, migration networks with fewer stopover sites were more vulnerable to habitat loss. Node removal in order from the highest to lowest degree of habitat loss yielded an increase of network resistance similar to random removal. In contrast, resistance increased more rapidly when removing nodes in order from the highest to lowest betweenness value (quantified by the number of shortest paths passing through the specific node). We quantified the risk of migration network collapse and identified crucial sites by first selecting sites with large contributions to network connectivity and then identifying which of those sites were likely to be removed from the network (i.e., sites with habitat loss). Among these crucial sites, 42% were not designated as protected areas. Setting priorities for site protection should account for a site's position in the migration network, rather than only site-specific characteristics. Our framework for assessing migration-network connectivity enables site prioritization for conservation of migratory species.     

Assessing Habitat Quality for a Migratory Songbird Wintering in Natural and Agricultural Habitats

Abstract:  As tropical forests are cleared, a greater proportion of migratory songbirds are forced to winter in agricultural and disturbed habitats, which, if poorer in quality than natural forests, could contribute to population declines. We compared demographic indicators of habitat quality for a focal species, the American Redstart ( Setophaga ruticilla ), wintering in Jamaican citrus orchards and shade coffee plantations with those in four natural habitats: mangrove, coastal scrub, coastal palm, and dry limestone forests. Demographic measures of habitat quality included density, age and sex ratio, apparent survival, and changes in body mass. Measures of habitat quality for redstarts in citrus and coffee habitats were generally intermediate between the highest (mangrove) and lowest (dry limestone) measurements from natural habitats. The decline in mean body mass over the winter period was a strong predictor of annual survival rate among habitats, and we suggest that measures of body condition coupled with survival data provide the best measures of habitat quality for nonbreeding songbirds. Density, which is far easier to estimate, was correlated with these more labor-intensive measures, particularly in the late winter when food is likely most limiting. Thus, local density may be useful as an approximation of habitat quality for wintering migrant warblers. Our findings bolster those of previous studies based on bird abundance that suggest arboreal agricultural habitats in the tropics can be useful for the conservation of generalist, insectivorous birds, including many migratory passerines such as redstarts.     

Optimal Management of a Multispecies Shorebird Flyway under Sea‐Level Rise

Every year, millions of migratory shorebirds fly through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway between their arctic breeding grounds and Australasia. This flyway includes numerous coastal wetlands in Asia and the Pacific that are used as stopover sites where birds rest and feed. Loss of a few important stopover sites through sea‐level rise (SLR) could cause sudden population declines. We formulated and solved mathematically the problem of how to identify the most important stopover sites to minimize losses of bird populations across flyways by conserving land that facilitates upshore shifts of tidal flats in response to SLR. To guide conservation investment that minimizes losses of migratory bird populations during migration, we developed a spatially explicit flyway model coupled with a maximum flow algorithm. Migratory routes of 10 shorebird taxa were modeled in a graph theoretic framework by representing clusters of important wetlands as nodes and the number of birds flying between 2 nodes as edges. We also evaluated several resource allocation algorithms that required only partial information on flyway connectivity (node strategy, based on the impacts of SLR at nodes; habitat strategy, based on habitat change at sites; population strategy, based on population change at sites; and random investment). The resource allocation algorithms based on flyway information performed on average 15% better than simpler allocations based on patterns of habitat loss or local bird counts. The Yellow Sea region stood out as the most important priority for effective conservation of migratory shorebirds, but investment in this area alone will not ensure the persistence of species across the flyway. The spatial distribution of conservation investments differed enormously according to the severity of SLR and whether information about flyway connectivity was used to guide the prioritizations. With the rapid ongoing loss of coastal wetlands globally, our method provides insight into efficient conservation planning for migratory species. Gestión Óptima de una Ruta Migratoria de Múltiples Especies de Aves Costeras Sometida a Incremento del Nivel del Mar     

Toward Conservation of Midcontinental Shorebird Migrations

Shorebirds represent a highly diverse group of species, many of which experience tremendous energy demands associated with long-distance migratory flights. Transcontinental migrants are dependent upon dynamic freshwater wetlands for stopover resources essential for replenishment of lipid reserves and completion of migration. Patterns of shorebird migration across midcontinental wetlands were detected from migration reports to American Birds and information provided by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service national wildlife refuges. Patterns in species composition and abundance varied geographically, emphasizing the uniqueness of different regions to migrating shorebirds. Smaller species and neotropical migrants moved primarily across the Great Plains, whereas larger species and North American migrants predominated in assemblages in the intermountain west Shorebirds were broadly dispersed in wetland habitats with dynamic water regimes. Whereas populations of shorebirds in coastal systems appear to concentrate at sites of seasonally predictable and abundant food resources, we propose that transcontinental shorebirds disperse and use wetlands opportunistically. This migration system exemplifies the need for large-scale, coordinated regional management efforts that recognize the dynamic nature of ecosystem processes.     

Habitat use pattern of tidal mud and sand flats by shorebirds (charadriiformes) wintering in southern India

Habitat use pattern and status of shorebirds in southern India were investigated in six tidal flats comprising three mudflats and three sand flats on the east coast of southern India. Totally, 7757 shorebirds belonging to 21 species were recorded during September 2000–March 2002. The birds preferred mudflats over sand flats. Density, diversity and richness of shorebirds were relatively higher in tidal flats, especially in mudflats. The shorebirds preferred mudflats over sand flats as stopover sites and sites for refueling the required energy during migration. Rhythmic changes in tidal pattern also influenced the allochthonous nutrients and prey species, which also attracted the migratory shorebirds. However, the abundance of shorebirds with reference to tidal flats *season*tide and habitats*seasons * tide had strong variations (P < 0.001). During migratory season, bird density, diversity and species richness were observed higher than in other seasons.     

Multiple predators indirectly alter community assembly across ecological boundaries

Models of habitat selection often assume that organisms choose habitats based on their intrinsic quality, regardless of the position of these habitats relative to low-quality habitats in the landscape. We created a habitat matrix in which high-quality (predator-free) aquatic habitat patches were positioned adjacent to (predator-associated) or isolated from (control) patches with single or two species of caged predators. After 16 days of colonization, larval insect abundance was reduced by 50% on average in both the predator and predator-associated treatments relative to isolated controls. Effects were largely similar among predator treatments despite variation in number of predator species, predator biomass, and whether predators were native or nonnative. Importantly, the strength of effects did not depend on whether predators were physically present. These results demonstrate that predator cues can cascade with equal strength across ecological boundaries, indirectly altering community assembly via habitat selection in intrinsically high-quality habitats.     

Overwinter Survival of Neotropical Migratory Birds in Early-Successional and Mature Tropical Forests

Many Neotropical migratory species inhabit both mature and earty-successional forests on their wintering grounds, yet comparisons of survival rates between habitats are lacking. Consequently, the factors affecting habitat suitability for Neotropical migrants and the potential effects of tropical deforestation on migrants are not well understood. We estimated overwinter survival and capture probabilities of Wood Thrush ( Hylochichla mustelina ), Ovenbird ( Seiurus aurocapillus ), Hooded Warbler ( Wilsonia citrina ), and Kentucky Warbler ( Oporornis formosus ) inhabiting two common tropical habitat types, mature and early-successional forest. Our results suggest that large differences (for example, ratio of survival rates (γ) ≤ 0.85) in overwinter survival between these habitats do not exist for any of these species. Age ratios did not differ between habitats, but males were more common in forest habitats and females more common in successional habitats for Hooded Warblers and Kentucky Warblers. Future research on overwinter survival should address the need for age- and sex-specific survival estimates before we can draw strong conclusions regarding winter habitat suitability. Our estimates of overwinter survival extrapolated to annual survival rates that were generally lower than previous estimates of annual survival of migratory birds. Capture probability differed between habitats for Kentucky Warblers, but our results provide strong evidence against large differences in capture probability between habitats for Wood Thrush, Hooded Warblers, and Ovenbirds. We found no temporal or among-site differences in survival or capture probability for any of the four species. Additional research is needed to examine the effects of winter habitat use on survival during migration and between-winter survival.     

Influence of body condition and weather on departures of first-year European robins, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Erithacus rubecula</Emphasis>, from an autumn migratory stopover site

How migratory birds decide when to leave a stopover site is important to the understanding of bird migration strategies. Our study looks at how body condition and the weather affect the decision to depart on nocturnal migratory flight. During two autumn migration seasons (2002–2003), we radio tracked 51 first-year European robins, Erithacus rubecula, at a stopover site on the Courish Spit (Eastern Baltic) from the first day after landing until their migratory departure. The tagged robins stopped over for 1–14 days. There was no clear relationship between stopover duration and energetic condition on arrival. Weather conditions (wind, precipitation, and cloud cover) on departure differed measurably between years. In 2002, robins took off mainly under following winds and clear skies. In 2003, there were mainly light head winds and partially cloudy or overcast skies. This could be explained by the year-specific role of weather factors in making the decision to depart. In both years, robins making short (1–2 days) stopovers took off in more varied weather situations than those individuals with long stopovers. This suggests that robins from the former group were more inclined to continue with migration than longer-stay birds that, apart from re-fuelling, could be waiting for favourable weather. The lack of a relationship between stopover duration and body condition and some departures under unfavourable weather conditions suggest that endogenous spatiotemporal programmes may play an important role in controlling stopover duration in robins.     

Conservation of Species in Dynamic Landscapes: Divergent Fates of Silene tatarica Populations in Riparian Habitats

Abstract:  In transient environments, where local extinctions occur as a result of destruction or deterioration of the local habitat, the long-term persistence of a species requires successful colonizations at new, suitable sites. This kind of habitat tracking should be associated with the asynchronous dynamics of local populations, and it can be especially important for the conservation of rare plant species in riparian habitats. We determined spatiotemporal variation in the demography of the perennial Silene tatarica (L.) Pers. in 15 populations (1998–2003) located in periodically disturbed riparian habitats. The habitats differed according to their morphology (flat shores, slopes) and the amount of bare ground (open, intermediate, closed) along a successional gradient. We used elasticity and life-table response analyses and stochastic simulations to study the variation in population demography. Finite population growth rate was higher in intermediate habitats than in open and closed habitats. In stochastic simulations population size increased in most cases, but four populations were projected to become extinct within 12–70 years. The viability of local populations depended most on the survival and growth of juvenile individuals and on the fecundity of large fertile individuals. On a regional scale, the persistence of this species will require a viable network of local populations as protection against local extinctions caused by natural disturbances and succession. Accordingly, the long-term persistence of riparian species may depend on habitat changes; thus, their conservation requires maintenance of natural disturbance dynamics. Along regulated rivers, management activities such as the creation of open habitats for new colonization should be implemented. Similarly, these activities can be rather general requirements for the conservation of endangered species dependent on transient habitats along successional gradients.     

Conserving international coastal habitat networks on migratory waterfowl flyways

Migratory waterfowl depend on habitat networks at local, national and international scales for their survival. Coastal habitats are key areas for many waterfowl. Different species use different biotopes and in different places, so overall many parts of the coastal resource are important. As well as national conservation efforts, waterfowl conservation is increasingly focussed worldwide on collaborative international conservation, catalysed by several measures e.g. the Ramsar Convention, the EC Conservation of Wild Birds Directive, and the Bonn Convention Agreement on the Conservation of African/Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds. Several international conservation plans are under development for single species, but a more effective approach may be to develop plans, for assemblages of migratory birds with similar habitat requirements. All such plans must incorporate future sustainable use of the habitats on which the birds depend. Yet migratory bird and coastal habitat conservation is still often approached separately, despite the two being now closely linked to the development of the Natura 2000 site network in the European Community. Implementing the 1992 EC Habitats Directive requires the selection of coastal habitat sites for designation, set in national and international contexts of resource distribution. International coastal habitat inventories are needed to underpin this process. Combining such inventories with assessment of the flyway habitat requirements of waterfowl species and assemblages offers great potential for identifying international coastal habitat networks that meet the objectives of both habitat and migratory waterfowl conservation.     

Environmental and endogenous control of selective tidal-stream transport behavior during blue crab <Emphasis Type="Italic">Callinectes sapidus</Emphasis> spawning migrations

Selective tidal-stream transport (STST) is used by many estuarine organisms. Spawning blue crabs use a form of STST, ebb-tide transport (ETT), to migrate to high-salinity areas of the lower estuary and coastal ocean for larval release. In tidal estuaries, ETT is driven by a circatidal rhythm in vertical swimming with episodic ascents into the water column during ebb tide. This study examined vertical swimming behavior of migrating female blue crabs tethered in habitats they could encounter during migration. A combined bio-physical field study in the summer of 2009 simultaneously measured physical parameters of the water column and vertical swimming behavior of tethered ovigerous crabs using pressure-recording dataloggers. Tethering sites were in the tidal Beaufort Inlet drainage and the non-tidal Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System, North Carolina, USA. Crabs tethered in tidal areas swam primarily during ebb tides, both day and night. Swimming frequency increased as embryonic development progressed and ebb-tide swimming continued after larval release. Swimming frequency varied among habitats with the highest swimming frequency in the known migratory corridor. Swimming did not occur in the non-tidal habitat. Differences in swimming frequency among sites are hypothesized to be responses to environmental cues, including flow regime. Some habitats serve as migratory corridors while others serve as foraging stopovers. These areas are likely defined by a combination of environmental cues including flow regime.     

Evolution of within-colony distribution patterns of birds in response to habitat structure

It has long been suggested that habitat structure affects how colonial birds are distributed within their nesting aggregations, but this hypothesis has never been formally tested. The aim of this study was to test for a correlated evolution between habitat heterogeneity and within-colony distributions of Ciconiiformes by using Pagel’s general method of comparative analysis for discrete variables. The analysis indicated that central-periphery gradients of distribution (high-quality individuals occupying central nesting locations) prevail in species breeding in homogeneous habitats. These were mainly ground-nesting larids and spheniscids, where clear central-periphery patterns were recorded in ca. 80 % of the taxa. Since homogeneous habitats provide little variation in the physical quality of nest sites, central nesting locations should be largely preferred because they give better protection against predators by means of more efficient predator detection and deterrence. By contrast, central-periphery gradients tended to be disrupted in heterogeneous habitats, where 75 % of colonial Ciconiiform species showed uniform patterns of distribution. Under this model of distribution, edge nest sites of high physical quality confer higher fitness benefits in comparison to low-quality central sites, and thus, high-quality pairs are likely to choose nest sites irrespectively of their within-colony location. Breeding in homogeneous habitats and uniform distribution patterns were identified as probable ancestral states in Ciconiiformes, but there was a significant transition rate from uniform to central-periphery distributions in species occupying homogeneous habitats.     

Invasive ecosystem engineer selects for different phenotypes of an associated native species

Invasive habitat-forming ecosystem engineers modify the abiotic environment and thus represent a major perturbation to many ecosystems. Because native species often persist in these invaded habitats but have no shared history with the ecosystem engineer, the engineer may impose novel selective pressure on native species. In this study, we used a phenotypic selection framework to determine whether an invasive habitat-forming ecosystem engineer (the seaweed Caulerpa taxifolia) selects for different phenotypes of a common co-occurring native species (the bivalve Anadara trapezia). Compared to unvegetated habitat, Caulerpa habitat has lower water flow, lower dissolved oxygen, and sediments are more silty and anoxic. We determined the performance consequences of variation in key functional traits that may be affected by these abiotic changes (shell morphology, gill mass, and palp mass) for Anadara transplanted into Caulerpa and unvegetated habitat. Both linear and nonlinear performance gradients in Anadara differed between habitats, and these gradients were stronger in Caulerpa compared to unvegetated sediment. Moreover, in Caulerpa alternate phenotypes performed well, and these phenotypes were different from the dominant phenotype in unvegetated sediment. By demonstrating that phenotype-performance gradients differ between habitats, we have highlighted a role for Caulerpa as an agent of selection on native species.     

Predicting barrier passage and habitat suitability for migratory fish species

Fish migrate to spawn, feed, seek refuge from predators, and escape harmful environmental conditions. The success of upstream migration is limited by the presence of barriers that can impede the passage of fish. We used a spatially explicit modeling strategy to examine the effects of barriers on passage for 21 native and non-native migratory fish species and the amount of suitable habitat blocked for each species. Spatially derived physical parameter estimates and literature based fish capabilities and tolerances were used to predict fish passage success and habitat suitability. Both the fish passage and the habitat suitability models accurately predicted fish presence above barriers for most common, non-stocked species. The fish passage model predicted that barriers greater than or equal to 6 m block all migratory species. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) was expected to be blocked the least. The habitat suitability model predicted that low gradient streams with intact habitat quality were likely to support the highest number of fish species. The fish passage and habitat suitability models were intended to be used by environmental managers as strategy development tools to prioritize candidate dams for field assessment and make decisions regarding the management of migratory fish populations.     

Determinants of habitat association in a sympatric clade of marine fishes

Triplefin fishes reach their greatest diversity in New Zealand with 26 endemic species, and habitat diversification has been implicated as a key factor in the divergence of this group. Despite this, it is unknown whether species-specific habitat patterns in these sympatric fishes are established by passive processes (e.g. differential mortality) or by habitat selection during settlement. We investigate this question by comparing the habitat associations of new recruits with those of conspecific adults in five species. In addition, the amount of variation in habitat use of conspecific recruits and adults was calculated to identify ontogenetic shifts in habitat association. The results indicated that while there were some differences between recruit and adult habitats, these differences were small in magnitude and habitat use of new recruits was similar to that of adult conspecifics. This finding was further supported by the small difference in variation of habitat use between conspecific recruits and adults. The study suggests that new recruits are actively involved in the selection of habitats at settlement and maintain the use of these throughout demersal life. Habitat use in these territorial species has a large influence on mate choice, thus habitat selection by new recruits would provide a powerful mechanism for pre-zygotic isolation between individuals with different habitat preferences. Together these findings support the notion that habitat diversification has been a major component in the radiation of this sympatric group.     

Integration of distance, direction and habitat into a predictive migratory movement model for blue-winged teal (Anas discors)

Historically, the migration of birds has been poorly understood in comparison to other life stages during the annual cycle. The goal of our research is to present a novel approach to predict the migratory movement of birds. Using a blue-winged teal case study, our process incorporates not only constraints on habitat (temperature, precipitation, elevation, and depth to water table), but also approximates the likely bearing and distance traveled from a starting location. The method allows for movement predictions to be made from unsampled areas across large spatial scales. We used USGS’ Bird Banding Laboratory database as the source of banding and recovery locations. We used recovery locations from banding sites with multiple within-30-day recoveries were used to build core maximum entropy models. Because the core models encompass information regarding likely habitat, distance, and bearing, we used core models to project (or forecast) probability of movement from starting locations that lacked sufficient data for independent predictions. The final model for an unsampled area was based on an inverse-distance weighted averaged prediction from the three nearest core models. To illustrate this approach, three unsampled locations were selected to probabilistically predict where migratory blue-wing teals would stopover. These locations, despite having little or none data, are assumed to have populations. For the blue-winged teal case study, 104 suitable locations were identified to generate core models. These locations ranged from 20 to 228 within-30-day recoveries, and all core models had AUC scores greater than 0.80. We can infer based on model performance assessment, that our novel approach to predicting migratory movement is well-grounded and provides a reasonable approximation of migratory movement.